Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Which horse racing tipster do you follow?

As we near the calendar year end, here is how some popular tipsters are performing. 

Firstly Pricewise (2015):

Jan FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
25.00130.00-40.0027.00-203.50-350.00-237.50-297.50-145.00-30.00-75.00-20.00

Above figures are based on 10 unit stake (10 win or 5 ew as applicable).
Good record eh? Last winning month was April.
Overall the calendar year loss is 121.65 points (to one point unit stake)...(Source: bettingtools.co.uk)

Raceclear: losing in December, just had a sequence of 23 losers broken by a half point ew on 9/2 winner. Lost in calendar months Sept, Oct and Nov and currently losing overall in 2015. Loss exceeds 57 points since Sept 1st. 

Betting Emporium:  overall position, over 48,000 points staked for accumulative 1.3% win. 
Horses are better with 6.1% win overall but in 2015 they are losing heavily with substantial losses at all four feature meetings: Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot and Goodwood. These festivals total 17 days racing with a loss of over 300 points. 

As for Ben Linfoot (under the value bet banner) don't have the full figures but I understand he is currently on a 58-selection losing streak..

Figures compiled on 23 December 2015. Tricky old game it seems...

Happy Xmas!

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Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Do you like Sauvignon Blanc?


Prestige de Calvet Bordeaux Sauvignon Blanc


It's my Christmas nap. From Tesco, normally £9.00 a bottle it's on at £5.50 until 29 December:




Well, I'll be having a nap after I've drunk a bottle.......

History

This wine comes from the Bordeaux region of South West France, the home of some of the world's finest wines. Maison Calvet have been at the forefront of Bordeaux wine production since it was founded almost 200 years ago. 



Regional info

Grapes sourced in the area of Entre deux Mers. The state of the vineyard during the year, and the grape ripeness and the sanitary situation before harvest are followed by our technical team in collaboration with our suppliers. A close technical collaboration also takes place during the vinification and ageing in order to obtain a profile respecting our commercial target.

Tasting Notes

This elegant wine is softly oaked with hints of citrus and vanilla spice.
Perfect on its own or with chicken or seafood dishes.
Storage Instructions

This wine is ideal for drinking now but can be kept for up to three years.

Sunday, 6 December 2015

Faugheen - The Machine?

Some thoughts on the Punchestown meeting 14/15 November. Perhaps more important: two good restaurant recommendations!

Punchestown visit


Thursday, 19 November 2015

There could be hell toupee..



Latest GOP polls show Trump back in front. Latest price for him to get nomination on betfair is 4.9-5.2 and best bookmaker offer is 7/2. Good news for us as we are on @ 20/1. Potentially bad news for U.S. but can't see him beating Hillary if that turns out to be the H2H....

Latest polls


Sunday, 1 November 2015

The Professor gives them all a lesson

Having looked down and out after losing two matches in the round-robin, the player they call the professor then beats the players ranked two (Halep), three (Muguruza) and five (Kvitova) in the world to take the title. She traded as high as 110.0 on betfair during the tournament.

Radwanska has won the biggest tournament of her career (and two million dollars).

It's been a losing week on the blog (thanks to too much involvement in the Breeders' Cup) however it's nice to end the service with a winning bet. We didn't win much on the WTA finals though because A-Rad's earlier match losses referred to above prevented her winning the group.




There's a good example today as to why it's fruitless to carry on betting.

I thought I'd have a look at the prices for Aggie to win the Australian Open. As you'll see she was/is 33/1 with several firms. Here were my options:

Ladbrokes - account closed.

Betfred - offered £2 ew @ 33/1

Skybet - offered £1.52 ew @ 33/1

Paddy Power - offered £2.50 ew @ 33/1

So, a waste of everyone's time I think you'll agree.

The final figures for the blog service are shown above in the heading. We've just maintained the 20% profit margin although outstanding ante-post bets will affect the final figure: 2015 bet record

There will be around eight or nine long term ante-post bets carried forward to 2016 and beyond. The football wagers look toast. But the political wagers are more promising in particular: 20/1 Trump Republican nominee, 12/1 George Osborne next Con leader and Teresa May 20/1 & 12/1 next Con leader.

Good luck with your bets going forward.


Friday, 30 October 2015

Breeders' Cup - Saturday

Two good value losers today both well supported but neither ran particularly well. We have Make Believe in the Mile tomorrow @ 7/2 which has attracted some support and is likely to start 11/4 or shorter (IMO). 

I'm not playing the Classic but have backed three others tomorrow. It would be nice to go out with a winner but it's very competitive and therefore stakes are minimal: 

16:05 R3 2pts win Rachel's Valentina @ 9/2 Coral BOG

16:45 R4 1.5pts win Lady Shipman @ 13/2 Coral BOG

17:25 R5 1.5pts win Judy The Beauty @ 5/1 Coral BOG

3 x 0.5pt win doubles and 0.5pt win treble above three with Coral (2pts) 

Total seven points. 

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Breeders' Cup

Played a couple of races at Keeneland as follows: 

Today: 

19:30 R6 2pts win Shogun @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:50 R8 2pts win Illuminate @ 15/2 Skybet BOG 

Tomorrow: 

19:30 R8 4pts win Make Believe @ 7/2 Will Hill (and/or Bet365)

Total eight points

May have a bet in the Classic tomorrow. Good luck if you are involved. 

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Thursday, 29 October 2015

Tennis update - Red group


Great match from A-Rad taking out Halep in straight sets despite being 5-1 down in the first set tie-break. She now needs Pova to beat Pennetta 2-0 later this morning to reach the semi finals. If Pova wins 2-1 then Pennetta is through to the semis in second place in the group.

Incredibly, if Pennetta beats Pova by any score she will top the group and land the 9/1 bet. However she is 11/4 to win the match against a now inform Pova. The Italian does hold a 3-2 H2H with the Russian, winning the latest three matches, which should give her some confidence.

Wednesday, 28 October 2015

American stuff

Tennis bets look to have gone pear-shaped unless we get a miracle from Pennetta who was suffering from blisters during her win over Radwanska......

In the battle for Rebublican candidate in the forthcoming presidential election we have a nice position on Trump @ 20/1 - currently he is no better than 9/2. He has led the polls for months but has now slipped into second place behind Ben Carson as follows:

The latest CBS Republican national nominee poll: 

26% – Carson 

22% – Trump 

8% – Rubio 

7% – Bush, Fiorina (tied)

Given that the front two are so far ahead I've had: 

1pt Ben Carson to win Republican nominee @ 9/1 Betfred

Obviously a long way to go but the favourites (Bush, Rubio) have got it all to do it seems. 

Breeders' Cup thoughts coming soon but meanwhile...

Whilst on American matters check out the excellent film Mississippi Grind. Basically it revolves around the exploits of two gamblers and is well worth seeing. Brilliant acting from both players. Sunday Times film of the week. Don't miss. Here's the trailer: 











Saturday, 24 October 2015

WTA Singapore

I've pretty much finished on the horses for this season, although I may find something to bet on at the Breeders' Cup next weekend. Meanwhile I've found myself getting involved in the end of season WTA championship which starts in Singapore tomorrow. 

The Red Group looks the most interesting from a punting perspective because of Sharapova's long lay-off and the question marks over Halep's fitness. The other two players in the group are top priced at 5/2 (the inform Radwanska) and 9/1 (Pennetta, US Open winner) to win the group. 

I've backed them both and pressed up in the outright market as follows: 

4pts Radwanska to win Red Group @ 5/2 Boylesports 
2pts Radwanska to win tournament @ 6/1 Betfred

1.5pts Pennetta to win Red Group @ 9/1 Paddy Power 
1pt ew Pennetta to win tournament @ 20/1 Coral (1/3 odds 1,2) 

In the White Group I think Kerber, who has had some good results since the US Open, could go well: 

3pts Kerber to win White Group @ 2.8/1 Boylesports 

Total 12.5 points



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Monday, 19 October 2015

Restricted betting

Today is one of those days when restricted betting is a good thing! That's because I've lost less than I would have done had I been able to place bets in the sizes I wanted to.

Nevertheless it was a disappointing couple of races, particularly the 15:10P where my selection Pamushana was backed as though defeat was out of the question: from 7/1 to 3/1 favourite only to finish a poor fourth.

Back to the subject of restricted betting. There was an interesting programme yesterday on Radio Five Live which you should listen to if you've not already done so. It's called Five Live Investigates and was broadcast at 11am. There are two subjects discussed and betting is the second item starting around 11:40.

In general, this subject is getting more coverage in the media and two recent articles illustrate this:

Guardian - Ladbrokes

Guardian - punter accounts

Whether this increased exposure will lead anywhere remains to be seen.....






Zealous 14:10P

With the above selection having been backed into as low as 5/2 in places, it has now been declared a non-runner. A shame. I have now backed this one instead:

14:10P 1pt ew Maulesden May @ 8/1 Coral BOG

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Sunday, 18 October 2015

Monday racing

Time nearly up with the end of the flat season just a few weeks away. Couldn't resist a couple of plays at Ponte tomorrow. It was no good at all for me at the last meeting but here goes: 

14:10P 3pts win Zealous @ 7/2 Betfred BOG
14:10P 1.5pts ew Permera @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

15:10P 2pts win Pamushana @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG 

2 x 0.5pt ew doubles above selections with Betfred (13/2 Pamushana BOG) 

Total ten points. 

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Thursday, 15 October 2015

Matchbook Traders' Conference

Tremendous day at the Emirates yesterday. Here's a one minute flavour of what was for many at least a 12-hour day (including the Camden after conference party of course!):



Pleased to see old friends from the industry I'd not seen for 15 years or so. Plus, incredibly, some readers of my blog who I'd never met or spoken to before. One lad even fondly recalled my Covent Garden 17p soup deal from earlier this year (March). The good news is the £1-off vouchers are currently available again on their website. The bad news is I can't find any supermarkets (yet) with an offer below the full price of £2.35...!

Particularly interesting to hear the insight into Brentford and FC Midtjylland from Mathew Benham and Rasmus Ankersen. Learnt quite a lot of other stuff too.

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

Thank you





Many thanks to those readers who have written comments on my post 'future of this blog'. Much appreciated. 

Good luck with you wagers. Hope you can get on!

Sunday, 4 October 2015

Pontefract Monday

Bets as follows:

15:05P 4pts win Lovely Memory @ 2/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:05P 2pts win Iconic @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG 

16:15P 1.5pts win Red Paladin @ 6/1 Paddy Power or Bet 365 BOG
16:15P 1.5pts win Ivor's Involvement @ 5/1 Paddy Power or Bet365 BOG 

2 x 1pt doubles Lovely Memory 2/1 PP with 16:15P selections
2 x 0.5pts doubles Iconic @ 13/2 B365 with 16:15P selections 

Total 12 points.

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The future of this blog

The blog betting advice commenced on 8 December 2009 and will close no later than 7 December this year. We are currently showing an accumulative profit of 1,540 points (+20.6%). Whatever happens in the remaining months, it will mean a significant profit accrued over the six year operational period. 

There are a number of reasons for the service ending. Firstly the restrictive practices of bookmakers, e.g. the removal of the BOG (best odds guaranteed) concession from many accounts. Add to this the 'virtual' closing of most of my accounts - by this I mean the amounts one can win when taking a price being reduced to ridiculously low levels. William Hill, for one, allow me bets TO WIN £5 on many of their early price races. This is a grossly unfair practice. Bookmakers should not be allowed to take unlimited bets from punters who consistently lose and virtually no bets at all from anyone who shows any betting knowledge/skills. If I'm that good why not lay me £50 and then change the price? 

So there we have it. I'll continue to publish bets I've had, however small, for the rest of the flat season. I will continue not to quote prices, however, offered by a bookmaker who has (completely) closed my account. A growing list. 

Bets for Pontefract Monday will follow this post.

Good luck with your future wagers. 

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Longchamp

Update earlier than expected but prices are more settled now:

13:35L 1pt win Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

15:40L 0.75pts ew Maarek @ 14/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 
15:40L 0.75pts ew Steps @ 18/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)  

Note few books offer first four ew in 15:40. Those that do include B365, Betfred and Sky. 

In the Arc I've played a miracle forecast or two. Treve's pacemaker is drawn two and I'm hoping my selections, drawn three and four can tuck in behind. Anyway: 

14:55L 6 x 0.25pts comb forecast New Bay, Eagle Top and Erupt (1.5 points) 
14:55L 2x 0.5pts straight forecasts Treve to beat Eagle Top or Erupt (1 point) 

I have done my forecasts with Bet365, BOG, with prices locked in as follows: NB 11/2, ET 33/1, E 25/1 and T 5/4

Good luck if you're involved. 

Total 6.5 points. 

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Longchamp

Further bets @ 13:00

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Saturday, 3 October 2015

Arc 2

My second bet for the Arc is Eagle Top. I backed it yesterday with the aforementioned Unibet. I noticed they were offering 50/1 and 1/4 odds 1,2,3. 

I had a bet with them which had to be submitted for approval. It came back as £4 ew accepted. All a bit of a joke really and 50/1 quickly cut after that and no chance of a blog suggestion. 

Just noticed Coral have changed their book from a fifth the odds to a quarter so I have topped up as follows: 

Sun 14:55L 1pt ew Eagle Top @ 40/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 

Ground may suit and well drawn.

Two points staked.

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Saturday horses

Will probably have another bet in the Arc, but for now this is what I've had on the Saturday cards: 

15:15L 4pts win Cirrus Des Aigles @ 7/2 William Hill 

15:45A 1.5 pts ew Gabriel's Lad @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
15:45A 1pt ew Rene Mathis @ 18/1 Betfred BOG

Nine points staked. 

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Friday, 2 October 2015

Arc

I attended the London Racing Club preview of Arc weekend last night. Very enjoyable evening. Not surprisingly the members of the panel were pretty keen on the chances of the favourite and dual winner Treve: 

The panel: Hayley O'Connor, Gina Harding, Claud Charlet and Adrian Beaumont 

Of course the all-important draw was not known last night. Subsequently the favourite has been drawn in eight, an ok draw. With 18 runners declared it is a significant advantage to be drawn in single figures. Here are the draw positions of the winners for the last ten years: 

3-15-6-2-8-6-1-6-4-6

The 15 was of course Treve's first win two years ago. It took an exceptional performance to overcome the filly's poor draw. 

As for the betting, there is no way I could get involved in an 11/10 chance but such a short price in the field means a bit of value in the ew market. Careful though because as I write Paddy Power and Coral are only offering 1/5 odds 1,2,3 whereas most other firms offer 1/4 odds. 

Had my first post draw bet a few minutes ago. Was offered 91p ew by W Hill so played with Unibet instead! I can't recall the panel mentioning Erupt in the preview. The colt is a bit of a forgotten contender following his defeat behind New Bay in the Prix Niel having been unbeaten before that. He's drawn in four on Sunday. I'll record the bet with WH as I'm sure most readers (if you decide to play) would be accommodated for more than 91p and are more likely to have a WH account than a Unibet account. Also you'll get BOG, which Unibet don't offer: 

Sun 14:55L 1.5pts win 1pt place Erupt @ 33/1 W Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 

Total 2.5 points staked. 

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Ascot

Just playing the difficult first race:

14:20A 1.25 pts ew Elusive Guest @ 20/1 W Hill BOG
14:20A 0.75 pts ew Ogbourne Downs @ 20/1 Coral BOG

If you do get involved be careful as there is another horse in the race called Guest (which the market will tell you is more likely to win!). 

Four points staked. 

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Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Thursday races

Too many options at Chelmsford so going to swerve the all-weather and just play the sprints at Beverley tomorrow as follows: 

17:15B 2pts win 1pt place Thornaby Princess @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
17:15B 2pts win Robotic @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

17:50B 2.5pts win Lady Sioux @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG
17:50B 1.5pts win 1pt place Tinsill @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Above: 4 x 0.25pt win doubles Paddy Power prices (14/1 Tinsill)
            : 2x 0.25pt win doubles 17:15B selections with Lady Sioux (PP) 

Total 11.5 points. 

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Kempton

Disappointing results at Nottingham. Small interests at Kempton: 

18:10K 1pt ew Polar Kite @ 18/1 W Hill BOG
18:10K 1pt ew Duke Of North @ 12/1 W Hill BOG

20:10K 1pt win Missy Blue Eyes @ 8/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked. 

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Wednesday horses

Four points profit yesterday thanks to Ustinov at Ayr. Nottingham today:

16:20N 1pt win Volunteer Point 13/2 Bet365
16:20N 1pt win Maraakib @ 8/1 Bet365 

16:50N 0.5pts ew Syrian  Pearl @ 12/1 Betfred
16:50N 3pts win Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 Bet365

17:20N 1pt ew Red Invader @ 12/1 Coral
17:20N 2pts win Indian Tinker @ 7/1 Coral 

Ten points staked. All BOG. 

Possibly a bet at Kempton. Published by 17:45 if that is the case.  

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Monday, 28 September 2015

Review/Tuesday racing

Very nearly a good day today when Top Cop almost hung on to win the finale at Bath (beaten a nose, favourite in the photo). But no damage done thanks to 9/4 (backed into 6/4) winner Treasury Notes in the Hamilton event earlier in the day.

There is an interesting 6f sprint at Ayr tomorrow. Two of the runners - Circuitous and Ancient Cross - we backed at 33/1 last time they won. That was way back in September 2013 when on successive days at Ayr they took the Bronze and Silver Cups respectively. I've not backed either horse since. So that's two good examples of why it's a bad idea to favour horses just because they've performed well for you in the past. Both have drawn blanks since those (fondly remembered) victories. Admittedly Ancient Cross ran very well LTO and could finally win again tomorrow. 

Ayr Festival was a disaster earlier this month so I'm reluctant to get too involved at the track tomorrow. I'm looking elsewhere for the 6f winner and have had small stakes as follows:

16:25A 1pt win Ustinov @ 5/1 Coral BOG 
16:25A 1pt win Pettochside @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked. 

Likely to be more involved on Wednesday. 

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Sunday, 27 September 2015

Monday racing

Things somewhat calmer on Monday after hectic trading on Saturday. At least the latter was profitable to the tune of 10.5 points. Two races of interest Monday: 

16:20H 2pts win Treasury Notes @ 9/4 Coral BOG
16:20H 0.5pts ew Silver Alliance @ 14/1 Coral BOG

17:40B 1.5pts win Top Cop @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG
17:40B 0.75pts ew Fossa @ 12/1 Coral BOG

No further horses tomorrow unless one of the above is a non-runner. 

Six points staked. 

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Saturday, 26 September 2015

Chelmsford

Five points up on the day thanks to Clubland w 12/1 at Chester. Re-invested as follows:

17:45CC 1.5pts win Modello @ 4/1 Coral BOG
17:45CC 0.5pts ew Indigo @ 14/1 Boylesports BOG

18:45CC 1.5pts win Vimy Ridge @ 15/2 Betfred BOG
18:45CC 0.5pts ew Even Stevens @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Five points staked.

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Ripon

Been waiting to see if there is a non-runner declared in the 14:40 race. Sixteen runners at the moment which is perfect for ew bets, so taking a chance as follows:

14:40R 1pt ew Bertie Blu Boy @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG
14:40R 1pt ew Ella's Delight @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

Plus a little top up forecast. Above two with Pensax Lad and Cliff 12 x 0.20p SP forecasts (Bet365) 

Total 6.4 points.

If I have any money left (!) I might have a couple of bets at Chelmsford. Will post around 17:00 if I do.

Chester

As follows:

14:30C 1.5pts win 1pt place Clubland @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
14:30C 1pt ew Whozthecat @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Furiant @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG
16:15C 1pt ew Nags Wag @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG
16:15C 1pt win Sixties Sioux @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

Nine points staked.

Some Ripon action around 11am.

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Friday, 25 September 2015

Saturday horses

One bet in the ridiculously difficult Cambridgeshire for now:

15:50N 1.5pts ew Halation @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Chester bets in the morning...

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Update - horses and football

Horse racing

Two frustrating days. Total of 13 selections. Just two winners and one place (w 6/1 (10p r4), w 5/2 (5p r4), p 28/1 (5p r4)). Plus two non-runners. Nevertheless marginal profit over the two days of about one point!

Is it worth it? A bit unfortunate yesterday as I was travelling for a fair part of the day and would definitely have blogged the winner of the 15:30P had I known my first choice was a NR. No big deal as best price was 9/4.

The wet weather has increased the level of non-runners making early selections difficult. At Goodwood, for example, the 16:55 was reduced from 14 to nine runners which changed the whole shape of the race. Don't think I would have backed the winner of this particular race with more going to post though.

I don't often advise forecasts but I know certain readers sometimes have a forecast when I suggest two runners in a race. I hope that was the case in the last at Goodwood on Wednesday when first choice Threave (backed into 6/4) came clear of second choice By Rights (25/1) for a SP forecast of £37.08. Indeed if you were really ambitious you could have locked in a higher dividend with Bet365 early in the day. That paid between £65-70, depending on the exact prices taken. For an explanation as to how this works see my earlier post on this subject:

BOG forecasts

(Note that if there is a rule 4 greater than 10p the BOG forecast will revert to the SP forecast)

Premier League

Already I have too many players in my Premier League TGS portfolio but despite this I've had a bit of a stake saver on the Man U wonder kid. As a friend said the other day he could be anything. Or nothing. So it's a win only wager as follows:

2pts win Anthony Martial to be TGS Premier League @ 16/1 Coral

Price also available with "sporting"bet.

No further bets for today but will probably get involved in Saturday racing either early tonight or before 10 am tomorrow.




Thursday, 24 September 2015

Thursday bets

Quite a few:

15:30P 1pt ew Maulesden May @ 12/1 PP

16:00P 1pt ew Sunraider @ 12/1 Coral

16:35P 2pts win Fattsota @ 4/1 Betfred

17:40P 1.5pts win Ruby's Day @ 8/1 W Hill

18:15CC 1pt ew Aberlady @ 11/1 Skybet 

18:45CC 2pts win Hot Mustard @ 5/2 Skybet

19:15CC 1.5pts win Mr Soprano @ 6/1 Bet365

19:45CC 1.5pts win Dominium @ 6/1 W Hill

All BOG. Total 14.5 points staked. 

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Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Wednesday racing

Had some bets at Goodwood and Kempton today: 

16:55G 1.5pts ew Babs Princess @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG
16:55G 1.5pts win See The Storm @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

17:25G 3pts win Threave @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG
17:25G 0.5pts ew By Rights @ 28/1 Betfred BOG 

17:20K 1.5pts win 1pt place Xceleration @ 8/1 Skybet BOG 

Total 11 points.

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Sunday, 20 September 2015

Premier League top goal scorer 2015/16

On 21 October last year I backed Pelle to be PL TGS after he had notched six Premiership goals. Shortly after this he went on a scoreless run of something like 12 or 13 matches. He seemed to lose completely all confidence. He recovered slightly late in the season to finish 10th= in the scorers' table on 12 goals. Too little too late. 

This season he has started well. Four goals in six matches including the two against Man U today. Southampton, despite losing today, seem to be getting their act together as well. 

As soon as the 16:00 matches concluded I visited Oddschecker to see how the books priced his chances. Fred went 40/1 so I had some of that. He then went 33/1 so I pressed up. Fred is now 25/1. Don't be thinking that these were large bets. I no longer am allowed sizeable bets with any bookmaker and therefore consider myself in a winding down phase. 

There is still a bit of 33s about - bet365 and PP - so my recommendation would be to add Pelle to the portfolio as follows: 

1.5pts ew Graziano Pelle to be Premier League TGS @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Three points staked.

Betting 'giants' Ladbrokes and W Hill offer only 16/1...


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Saturday, 19 September 2015

Bob's 30-year celebration concert (1992)

I find this video strangely therapeutic after a poor day's punting....



Is there a guitarist in the house?



Friday, 18 September 2015

Saturday racing

Minimal stakes tomorrow given the result of Bronze Cup today. Small interest only with the sponsors (who I note now are offering five places on the two feature handicaps): 

14:35A 1pt win Eccleston @ 9/1 W Hill BOG 
14:35A 1pt win Fendale @ 14/1 W Hill BOG

16:45A 1pt win Rivellino @ 14/1 W Hill BOG (You might get 18/1 with WH at 8:30 Saturday as it's a Pricewise horse, however I will book it at 14/1 BOG)
16:45A 1pt win Jack Dexter @ 14/1 W Hill BOG 

4 x 0.35pts ew doubles above at prices (ew 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Total 6.8 points staked.

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Friday racing - Bronze Cup update.

Very few bookmakers offering five places on Ayr's feature race. PP, Fred and WH are, for example, only betting four places as I write. This is a William Hill sponsored race!

That said Coral don't seem to want to offer me more than a fiver ew in their Bronze Cup market. Skybet are first five too however. One more bet (price with Sky or Coral): 

15:05A 1.5pts win 1pt place Gramercy @ 11/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

That's it for today. 

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Thursday, 17 September 2015

Ayr Bronze Cup

You may not be interested in my views on the above race following today's ten point loss spread over three tracks. A very poor day for the blog. The Ayr meeting was extremely profitable for us in both 2014 and 2013. Indeed I backed and blogged the winners of the last two Bronze Cups: Expose @ 16/1 (10p r4) and Circuitous @ 33/1. I get the feeling it's not going to be quite so easy this year. 

I have read various articles about the course being 'set up differently this year' without any explanation of what that might actually mean. 

As for tomorrow's race, some firms are offering 1/4 odds first five - one of them being Coral. I've had a bet with them as follows: 

15:05A 1pt ew Bertiewhittle @ 20/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

The old boy is difficult to win with but could be in the shake up. 

I'll take a look at the rest of the racing in the morning. Good luck if you get involved. 

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Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Thursday racing

Spoilt for choice tomorrow. Plenty of opportunities...

Probably had too many bets, but for your info and (possible) consideration this is what I've had: 

16:00A 2pts win 1pt place Majestic Manannan @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
16:00A 0.5pts ew Threes Grand @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:45P 1.5pts win Lil Sophella @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG 

15:15P 2pts win Briardale @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:20CC 1.5pts win The Dukkerer @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

18:50CC 1pt win Venus Grace @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG
18:50CC 1pt win Wowee @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 11 points. 

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Wednesday results

A very messy day with numerous non-runners. Sandown eight non-runners to reduce the 13:45 field to just nine. Selections finished second and third. Maybe it's after timing but I would not have suggested backing both 7/2 and 9/2 shots in this race - effectively a 6/4 chance combined. Not my style. 

At Beverley just eight of the original 15 ran. Fortunately Keep It Dark won the race albeit with a large rule four deduction to my bet: 8/1 became 5.48/1. So the 1.5pt win bet yielded a return of 9.72 points. Small profit on the day of 2.52 points. 

Possibilities at Ayr, Ponte and CC tomorrow. May post something later tonight.

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Tuesday, 15 September 2015

Wednesday racing

Two tricky 5f handicaps at Sandown and Beverley tomorrow. Also not brilliant prices on the selections I've backed but of course there is BOG protection should they drift a little: 

13:45S 2pts win Rocket Rob @ 6/1 Coral BOG 
13:45S 1.5pts win Ladweb @ 7/1 Coral BOG

16:50B 1.5pts win Keep It Dark @ 8/1 Coral BOG
16:50B 1pt win Shawkantango @ 16/1 Coral BOG 

4 x 0.3pt win doubles above selections at Coral prices.

Total 7.2pts staked. 

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Monday, 14 September 2015

Champions' League

Somehow managed to make a small profit on the outright market last season with Juventus contesting the final (advised @ 28/1 ew, two selections). The fact that BT Sport has provided me with all the live coverage of the event should, I suppose, be an extra incentive to have a bet. However I seldom watch football on TV as I find it rather boring most of the time. I must have ADD or something. 

Anyway, for the moment, I've just had one bet on the following team. They appear, on paper, to be in a relatively easy group and potentially have a reasonable draw: 

1.5pts ew Atletico Madrid to win Champions' League @ 20/1 Bet365 (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Available at 20/1 with a few firms as I write.

Three points staked. 

No horse racing bets are anticipated until Wednesday at the earliest. 

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Sunday, 13 September 2015

Sunday result

If you are looking at the result of the 14:00C today and cannot see either of my selections in the first four - do not despair! If you had the bet on In Salutem with Coral, as recommended, you will have been paid out for a place. Indeed any reputable bookmaker will also pay the place bet (not the dreadful Sportingbet though, but why would you be betting with them?). Here's what happened: 

In Salutem race comments: "Tracked leaders, 6th from halfway, improved and not much room under 2f out, headway 1f out and hampered rivals, 2nd inside final furlong, no impression when slightly tight for room close home, finished 2nd, disqualified"

I've not seen any replays but I did see the race live and have a funny feeling it may have been Creggs Pipes that he tried to knock over the stands' rail....

Anyway the upshot is: three points staked, six points return.

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Sunday horses

Poor results at Chester and Doncaster but at least an ew return at Leopardstown in the 16-runner 7f handicap. Main fancy didn't run but Colour Blue, the ew poke, ran on well to snatch fourth. One race today, at The Curragh, the opening 6f handicap:

14:00C 1pt ew In Salutem @ 20/1 Coral BOG
14:00C 0.5pts ew Creggs Pipes @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Three points staked. 

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Saturday, 12 September 2015

Saturday horses (2)

Two more races:

15:45D 2pts win Fields Of Athenry @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

19:20Leop 1.5pts win Cape Wolfe @ 10/1 Coral BOG
19:20Leop 0.75pts ew Colour Blue @ 20/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked. 

That's it. 

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Saturday horses

The horses I like at Chester are a bit short so I've played doubles with Fred:

15:25C This Is For You @ 9/4 Betfred BOG
15:25C Ejaazah @ 9/2 Betfred BOG

16:35C Hoofalong @ 7/2 Betfred BOG 
16:35C Storm Lighting @ 13/2 Betfred BOG 

4 x 0.75pts win doubles 

Three points staked. 

Another bet or two in the next hour.

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Thursday, 10 September 2015

Chelmsford

Just playing the one race today. The mile contest at Chelmsford: 

18:40C 2pts win Bint Dandy @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG
18:40C 1pt win Little Prairie @ 11/2 Boylesports BOG 

Three points staked.

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Wednesday, 9 September 2015

Kempton results - today's two selections

You can't get much closer without cleaning up!

Brave Archibald backed 4/1 > 2/1 second beaten a neck.......

Showtime Blues backed 11/1 > 13/2 second beaten a head.......

Stake 5.5 points, return 7.5 points (11/1 place 1/4 odds, place double 4/1 & 11/1 1/4 odds)

(Plus one point free bet from Coral for Showtime Blues margin of defeat)




Kempton tonight

Played a couple at the all-weather venue: 

18:20K 2.5pts win Brave Archibald @ 4/1 Coral BOG 

19:50K 1pt ew Showtime Blues @ 11/1 Coral BOG 

0.5pt ew double above two at the Coral prices BOG

5.5 points staked.

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Sunday, 6 September 2015

Kerber etc

Played the best tennis I've seen her play in one of the finest ladies' matches ever at the U.S. Open. Hits 45 winners, saves five match points. 

Comes second.






Moving on: 

Hoping Mladenovic can extend her run tonight against Makarova. 

Just a couple of speculative bets today: the "British" player Konta could continue her winning streak against two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova. That is if the Czech has one of her off days and/or it's very hot tomorrow.

1pt Johanna Konta to win third quarter ladies' singles @ 20/1 Betfred

Can anyone beat Serena? Well Keys is one of the few that can hit the ball as hard. Will continue to be enormous pressure on SW GS. Of course if she beats Keys she will almost certainly face her sister next. It's only 1/3 odds ew with Fred now but the 28/1 Keys makes appeal:

1pt ew Madison Keys to win US Open @ 28/1 Betfred (1/3 odds 1,2) 

Three points staked. 

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Saturday, 5 September 2015

Ladies' second quarter update

Mladenovic is now a best priced 100/30 to reach the semi-final having been 25/1 at the outset. So a chance of a decent pick-up but two more wins are required. Plays Makarova next who beat her narrowly in three sets on clay earlier this year.

In the other match a rejuvenated Bouchard plays Vinci. The latter easily beat the former world number five at New Haven in August but that was before the Canadian linked up with Jimmy Connors. This has brought about a remarkable change in form and confidence. Bouchard won a very high quality match against the plucky Cibulkova last night and if she recovers from that could reverse the form with Vinci.

I've had a bet on Bouchard in the hope that she might meet Mladenovic in the quarter-final:

2pts E Bouchard to win ladies' second quarter @ 3/1 Paddy Power 



Friday, 4 September 2015

Saturday racing

Not much time for betting/posting tomorrow so have had a couple of bets tonight. Had a good look through Ascot and Haydock cards and struggled to come up with anything. Instead have tried my "luck" at Thirsk in the handicap sprints as follows:

16:15T 2pts win Mon Brav @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG 
16:15T 1pt win Grissom @ 8/1 Coral BOG

1755T 2pts win Brando @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG
17:55T 0.75pts ew Something Lucky @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

1pt ew double Mon Brav @ 11/2 and Brando @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG

Total 8.5 points staked

Good luck if you get involved.

Monday, 31 August 2015

US Open ladies' second quarter

With Sharapova missing the event through injury the second quarter now looks open. Perhaps the inconsistent Mladenovic has a chance to come through this section? She would have to beat former champion Kuznetsova in the first round to kick start her challenge. However the seeded Russian won this 11 years ago and does not have great recent form. I've had: 

1pt K Mladenovic to win second quarter ladies' US Open singles @ 25/1 Coral

Despite the large number of meetings today I'm not having any bets on the horses. 

Enjoy the tennis. 

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Sunday, 30 August 2015

Sunday results - Beverley 5f

I could never be an in-running trader in these sprints. Too hard to read. 

When Rosina was outpaced and about ten lengths behind the leader I was thinking - this cannot possibly win. Wins by two lengths going away. 

In my second race Jebediah Shine broke fast to try and make all, setting the race up for a closer. Deep in the final furlong I'm thinking - where's the line? Just holds on by a fast diminishing head. 

The upshot of all this excitement is two winners from the two selected @ 3/1 and @ 4/1 (BOG) and @ 19/1 double. 

A welcome return of 38 points for the five points staked. I hope you were on today. 

Not sure whether I'll play tomorrow. If I do I will publish before 10am. 

Meanwhile there's the US Open to look forward to - starts tomorrow....

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Football and tennis

My TGS premier league selections have started poorly. Unlike Callum Wilson of Bournemouth who is joint-leader at this very early stage on four goals. Following his hat-trick against West Ham he was on the score sheet against Leicester yesterday with a spectacular overhead kick. He was announced the man of the match. 

Very unlikely that he can win this playing for a promoted team, however an outside chance of finishing in the top four I would suggest. After the International break you'd fancy Bournemouth picking up more points against Norwich, Sunderland and Stoke. Could Wilson be this season's Harry Kane?!

1pt ew Callum Wilson to bet top premier league scorer @ 33/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)  

In the tennis I've had a small bet on Kevin Anderson, who is playing very well at present, winning Murray's quarter: 

1pt win K Anderson to win third quarter men's singles US Open @ 25/1 Coral

That's it for today...

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Sunday's horse racing

No good yesterday in the Goodwood race. 

In the tennis markets Boylesports eventually removed their ew facility in the quarter betting. Fortunately it was many hours after I pointed out the market on the blog so some readers may have got a bet. 

I don't back favourites very often - although one of my choices yesterday finished up market leader. I have however played the favs in the two Beverley sprint handicaps today as follows:

16:35B 2pts win Rosina @ 3/1 Coral BOG 

17:05B 2pts win Jebediah Shine @ 3/1 Skybet BOG

1pt win double above two Coral (11/4 JS)

Five points staked.

Small football and tennis bets to follow. 



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Saturday, 29 August 2015

No more bets Saturday

Going to stick with the bets I've already published. Both Goodwood horses are 10/1 with William Hill as I write and Bencic is still currently available for the quarter-final suggestion with Boylesports.

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Friday, 28 August 2015

U.S. Open quarter betting

A bookmaker not known for laying bets is offering a bit of value in this market. Normally this market is win only i.e. you are betting on the player to reach the semi-final from their particular quarter. Boylesports however are offing ew 1/3 odds 1,2. So with an ew bet the place terms payout if your selection reaches the quarter-final. 

I believe there is some value here particularly when there is an odds-on quarter favourite (eg Djokovic, Federer, S Williams). The value lies with the potential quarter-final opponent of the favourite. Looking specifically at the Serena quarter, she is generally 1/3 to win it so the value I believe is the second favourite, Bencic who Williams potentially meets in the quarter-final. Boylesports offer 10/1 Bencic whereas she is best priced 8/1 with other firms (win only). Obviously we will have to take Bencic's well-being on trust (following a retirement in her last tournament) but it's a good sign that the Swiss is clear fourth favourite on betfair to win outright (23.0). Incredibly they've laid me a bet. Not a huge one but a bet nonetheless: 

2pts ew B Bencic to win 1st quarter ladies' singles @ 10/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)

Four points staked.



Further bets before 10am tomorrow.

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Hoof It kicked into touch

Well there we have it. Plenty of 20/1 Hoof It available at the time of blogging. Very heavily backed early afternoon into 8/1. Needless to say finishes fifth, one place outside the EW money. 

I've played the 2:35 Goodwood tomorrow as I think a couple at the head of the market are overpriced. I have had: 

14:35G 2pts win 1pt place Fox Trotter @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
14:35G 1.5pts win 1pt place Suzie's Connoisseur @ 9/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2.3,4)

Total 5.5 points.

One firm is offering ew first five but only offers 8/1 each of my choices. I'll stick with the above. 

Might have further bets tomorrow, if I do I will blog anything I think would be of interest before 10am. 

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Thirsk

One bet today in the impossible sprint over 6f:

15:25T 1pt ew Hoof It @ 20/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Will probably have a couple of wagers tomorrow. Horses and maybe tennis quarter bets.

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Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Ladies' US Open

My ew picks Bencic and Kerber will not clash in the draw. One of them will be in Serena's half the other in the opposite half. Serena is now odds on to complete the grand slam. What would have been the usual threats to her taking the title: Azarenka, Sharapova and Halep have all suffered recent injuries of one sort or another. So I cannot oppose the world number one with an obvious challenger on form/ranking. I'll just stick with my 33/1 and 50/1 shots and hope for a miracle:




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Monday, 24 August 2015

Men's US Open

With Federer's comprehensive wins over Murray and Djokovic in Cincinnati he regained the number two spot from the Scot. Consequently he will be seeded two at next week's U.S. Open and is guaranteed not to meet Djokovic again unless the world's top two players contest the final.

Who could Federer meet in the semi? Well on the seeding it would be either Murray or Nishikori. The H2H with the Japanese player is 3-2 Federer. They haven't met in 2015 but Fed won the latest two meets in 2014. As for Murray, he can't break Roger's serve. It's something like 35 service games since the Scot achieved a break of the Swiss serve. And of course Roger has won their last five meetings.  

It's difficult to envisage anyone other than the top three picking up the trophy so I've had: 

2.5pts ew Roger Federer to win US Open @ 5/1 Paddy Power (ew 1/2 1,2) 

Five points staked.



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Friday, 21 August 2015

Saturday racing

Have played a couple of races. Firstly the big sprint at Sandown. Sixteen runners declared but there will be at least one non-runner so ew betting at the moment looks potentially poor value. I've taken the unusual step of backing three horses in the race as follows: 

15:25S 2pts win Desert Ace @ 10/1 Betfred BOG
15:25S 1.5pts win Taajub @ 8/1 Betfred BOG
15:25S 0.5pts win Pixeleen @ 12/1 Betfred BOG 

I looked at York's card earlier and decided against a bet however I've changed my mind. I think Fields Of Athenry is a very interesting runner and have had a small ew bet: 

15:45Y 1pt ew Fields Of Athenry @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Total stake six points.

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Thursday, 20 August 2015

Here he comes! There'll be hell to pay!

Or maybe Fred......

Trump now 9/2 with the northern geriartic layer (6/1 best elsewhere) for U.S. Republican Candidate.

Happy to be on at 20/1 advised 22 July!:


Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Kerber v Bencic

One of my two ew selections for the ladies' US Open will lose tonight in the first round of this week's WTA tournament. Not a difficult prediction as (50/1) Kerber takes on (33/1) Bencic. Kerber is favourite for the match and normally I'd be interested in Bencic at around 13/8 for the encounter as she won their only previous match in straight sets in August 2014. However with all the exertions of winning the Rogers' Cup last week the Swiss Miss could be fatigued.

I'll be happy to watch the match live on BT Sport around 20:00.

Monday, 17 August 2015

U.S. Open tennis

Belinha Bencic has won the Rogers' Cup in Toronto. She beat Wozniacki, Lisicki, Ivanovic, S Williams and in the final, Halep. Still only 18 she is improving so quickly that she must have a shot in the final grand slam. She has been backed, in particular after her semi-final victory over Serena. However there is still a bit of 33/1 about with W Hill - who have laid me 61p ew. I had some 33/1 with Boyles last night before they cut their price. Recommendation is:

1pt ew Belinda Bencic to win ladies' US Open tennis @ 33/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Two points staked.



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Saturday, 15 August 2015

Sunday Ponte

Horrible results at Ripon. Seven non-runners in the GSW race ruined it. As it turned out the ground was not as soft as anticipated which did not help my selections. And of course my best bet - Eccleston - finished fourth...

End of moan...

Ponte Sunday:

16:20P 2pts win Spring Offensive @ 5/1 Betfred BOG
16:20P 1pt win Shaakis @ 11/2 Coral BOG

17:20P 2pts win Be Lucky @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

2 x 0.5pt win doubles above Betfred (5/1 Shaakis)

Plus 17:20P 0.5pts ew Ben Hall @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

TOTAL seven points. 

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Friday, 14 August 2015

Slowburner

Tonight at the Ludlow Brewery. Slowburner singing Cream's Politician:


Saturday racing

That was a very poor race at Nottingham today but thankfully I was not too heavily involved. It's the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon tomorrow, one of my favourite races. There is also the consolation race over the same course and distance run thirty minutes earlier. I've already got involved with the early prices. I think this is wise with BOG available and also there's always the chance Pricewise might pick one of mine and then I'd struggle to get on tomorrow. This is how I have played:

15:00R 2pts win Right Touch @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG
15:00R 1pt ew The Hooded Claw @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

15:30R 2.5pts win 1.5pts place Eccleston @ 11/1 Betfred BOG
15:30R 2pts win 1pt place Poyle Vinnie @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG 

 Total 11 points staked.

I particularly like Eccleston the sole representative of the O'Meara stable. The trainer has won this race in three of the last four years including last year.

Might have a further bet in the morning. If so will post before 11:00 am.

I hope the GSW Handicap is still one of my favourite races at 15:45 tomorrow!

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Nottingham 14:40

Field reduced from 15 to 10. No really strong fancy:

14:40N 0.75pts ew College Doll @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG
14:40N 0.5pts ew Fathom Five @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 2.5 points.

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Friday horses

More reduced fields because of the weather. Going to have a bet at Nottingham. Will post by 11:00..

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Thursday, 13 August 2015

Out of jail today

Rain playing havoc with the going and non-runners. Two poor races for us at Salisbury and Beverley. Our only chance of a return was 16:55 Salisbury as Lingfield selection, Ohsosecret, doesn't go.

On the 3/1 favourite Quite A Story @ 9/2 and Hipz @ 10/1. Latter well supported immediately before race to 11/2.

When exiting stalls Quite A Story unseats A Kirby. Loose horse continues to compete and interferes with Hipz a furlong or so out. Hipz looks as though he could be caught by Capelita on the line. Latter was threes-on in the photo with betfair to have got up.

However Hipz wins by a nose. I'll take that. Quite a story indeed.

Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Thursday horses

Losing day Wednesday with just See Vermont going close. Atlantis Crossing was withdrawn so stakes returned on that selection. Spraying it around a bit tomorrow:

14:55S 2pts win Delaire @ 5/1 Betfred 
14:55S 1pt win Goodwood Moonlight @ 8/1 Betfred

15:35B 1pt win Busty Bimbo @ 15/2 Paddy Power
15:35B 1pt win Horsforth @ 10/1 Betfred

16:55S 2pts win Quite A Story @ 9/2 William Hill
16:55S 1pt win Hipz @ 10/1 William Hill 

18:45L 1pt win Ohsosecret @ 5/1 Skybet 

All selections are BOG. Total nine points staked.

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Leopardstown and Galway July 2015

That was a horrible race at Beverley with See Vermont squeezed for room in the closing stages and beaten just two heads. Well supported too down to 7/2 at the off.

Here is something to take your mind off that (if you backed it).

My visit to Leopardstown and Galway last month. Here's how it went:

 Leopardstown & Galway July 2015




Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Wednesday racing

A good result today with Divertimenti easily obliging by five lengths. I said on Twitter this morning that I would settle the bet at 9/1 rather than 10/1 if it was successful. I was disgusted with WH for only laying me £1.50 at 10/1. The price changed fairly quickly after I blogged the advice but there were several firms offering 9/1 - so that's how it will be settled. (SP was 7/1.)

Consequently 15.75 pts profit today which follows seven points on Monday and a couple of points on Sunday. Several races I like the look of tomorrow but I will stick with just these two: 

15:35Be 2pts win See Vermont @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG

20:10K 2pts win Atlantis Crossing @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG
20:10K 1pt ew Secret Journey @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG


Six points staked. 

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Tuesday racing

Just one bet today. Last race at Nottingham. Like the look of Divertimenti. The old boy has done well in this race winning twice including last year:

20:15N 1.5pts win 1pt place Divertimenti @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Total 2.5pts staked.

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Monday, 10 August 2015

Glee at Thirsk?

Some good value losers at Leicester yesterday (eg 11/4 > 7/4) but a winner at 8/1 meant a small profit on the day. One bet today at Thirsk with G Lee in the saddle:

19:00T 2pts win Olivia Farrow @ 7/2 Betfred  BOG

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Sunday, 9 August 2015

U.S. Open

America will be anticipating Serena Williams completing a calendar grand slam at the U.S. Open in a few weeks time and in the process moving level with Graf on 22 grand slam wins. She is a short price to accomplish this at no better than 6/5.

One player who has been playing well on the hard courts while Serena has been taking a break is Angelique Kerber. She meets Pliskova in the final at Stanford later today. The problem in backing the German for the final GS tournament of the year is that her form has not been as good in grand slams as elsewhere. Nevertheless a quote of 50/1 from WH is worth taking to open the portfolio:

1pt ew Angelique Kerber to win ladies' US Open @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

Two points staked.

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No glee at Ascot

G Lee's mounts at Ascot yesterday never reached the winners' enclosure although two of the mounts I mentioned finished second beaten a s.h and 1/2 length respectively. As with the Lingfield selection however, nothing to come. 

I've had a couple of bets at Leicester today and these are as follows:

15:30L 2pts win Red Tycoon @ 4/1 Betfred BOG
15:30L 1pt win Rosie's Premiere @ 8/1 Coral BOG

16:00L 3pts win Dunnscotia @ 11/4 Paddy Power BOG

17:00L 1pt win Go Charlie @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

Total seven points.

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Saturday, 8 August 2015

Saturday racing

Really can't get excited about any bets today other than the jockey bet I've already had. I think the Shergar Cup will be entertaining to watch but I am not considering any single horse bets at Ascot.

Just one bet today at Lingfield, Head Coach who is wearing blinkers for the first time:

17:50L 1.5pts win 1pt place Head Coach @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 2.5pts staked.

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Shergar Cup Top Jockey

You can argue that Blake Shinn has the best mounts at Ascot Saturday, that's why most bookmakers have him favourite to win the top jockey accolade. I think the value though lies with Graham Lee whose five mounts can all be fancied for various reasons. His 13:30 and 15:50 rides are Pricewise selections (chosen by Paul Kealy this week). In between Balding's Elbereth, Earth Drummer for inform David O'Meara and Johnson's Polarisation could all be in the shake up. 

Consequently I've taken the following bet with Coral:

2pts Graham Lee to be Shergar Cup top jockey @ 8/1 Coral

I may have some further bets Saturday and if I do they will be posted by 10:00am. 

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Thursday, 6 August 2015

No bets today

Just to confirm the details of yesterday's Kempton winner. Classical Rose was subject to 30p rule4 deduction because of the withdrawal of the favourite. This means the odds taken of 14/1 were reduced to 9.8/1. Still a nice payout and a bit better than the S.P. odds (8/1). No bet today and unlikely to be a bet tomorrow. If I do have a bet Friday I will post it by 09:30 am.

Last night I went to an interesting and entertaining concert in Ludlow: Tim Eriksen, an American folk singer and multi-instramentalist. Here's a sample of his work filmed on a train journey between Poznan and Warsaw:



Some banjo picker, eh?

Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Wednesday horses

Unfortunately just two good value losers today, both well supported but neither could really get in a blow. Switch of surface tomorrow:

18:10K 1.5pts ew Classical Rose @ 14/1 Betfred BOG
18:10K 2pts win Sciustree @ 4/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked.

That's it for the horses Wednesday. 

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Salisbury

Played a couple of races here:

15:30S 2pts win Byrd In Hand @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

16:00S 2pts win Malih @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

0.5pts ew double above two at prices Betfred (10/3 Malih)

Five points staked.

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Saturday, 1 August 2015

Not a bad Goodwood

Only one winner (Ridge Ranger 16/1) but four good priced ew placed bets means an overall profit at the Sussex venue: stakes 28 points, returns 38.75 points, profit 10.75 points. Hope you managed to make it pay.

Saturday racing

Quite a few races I could get involved in today however I'm sticking to Goodwood. People are talking up Richard Hughes winning the Stewards' Cup on Ninjago this afternoon on his last day in the saddle. He may well do this but he has, I think, an even better chance of a winner in the consolation race at 14:00. He rides last year's winner Barnet Fair. 

14:00G 2pts ew Barnet Fair @ 16/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked. 

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Friday, 31 July 2015

Goodwood further bets

In the Nursery:

16:20G 2pts win 1pt place Fashionable Spirit @ 11/1 Skybet BOG
16:20G 0.5pew Unilit @ 25/1 Betfred BOG

Total four points

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Thursday, 30 July 2015

Goodwood Friday

A fair offer from Betfred/Totesport in tomorrow's King George Stakes. Only 15 runners declared so bookmakers normal terms are 1/5 odds 1,2,3. Betfred is offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4. Despite the moderate record of top trainer Roger Varian at the track, I have taken a reasonable ew interest in his runner: 

15:45G 2.5pts ew Justineo @ 16/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
15:45G 2pts win Moviesta @ 7/1 Bet365

Total seven points

 

Goodwood

Playing one more race today:

16:55G 1.5pts win 1pt place My Amigo @ 14/1 William Hill BOG
16:55G 1.5pts win 1pt place Lagenda @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Five points staked.

Each-way pays four places provided 16 or more run. 

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Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Racing Thursday

Couple of bets in the concluding race at Goodwood tomorrow. Tricky one for punters to finish with if they've done it in on the rest of the card. My plays are:

17:30G 3pts win Midlander @ 7/1 Coral BOG
17:30G 0.75pts ew Kinematic @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 4.5pts staked. 

It's possible I might have another bet tomorrow. If I do I will post it before 9:30am. 

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Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Galway Tuesday

One race:

19:50Ga 2pts win 1pt place When In Doubt @ 14/1 Bet365 
19:30Ga 0.75pts ew War Anthem @ 25/1 Betfred

Total 4.5 points staked.

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Tuesday racing

Just shows you the value of concessions. Yesterday's ew selection at Galway - Hat Alnasar - finished fourth in the 14-runner handicap. Normally a losing bet but because of PP's extra place special our bet is paid out as a place @ 16/1 SP 1/4 odds (the SP is BOG and better than the 20/1 rule 4 price taken). Therefore we break-even on the race rather than taking a loss. 

Today I'm plays at Goodwood as follows: 

16:20G 4pts win Double Up @ 3/1 Betfred BOG
16:20G 1pt win Ridge Ranger @ 16/1 Skybet BOG

Five points staked. 

Also having a bet at Galway (to follow shortly). 


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Monday, 27 July 2015

Galway

One race of interest Monday night. The 7f handicap in which there will be a maximum of 15 runners. Don't be fooled by bookmaker offers of 1/4 odds 1234 because unless they have a special concession they will not be paying on the fourth place once the (three) reserve horses are discounted/substituted. One firm that is guaranteeing fourth place is Paddy Power. My bets in the race are:

19:20G 1.5pts win 1pt place Hat Alnasar @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
19:20G 2.5pts win Tadaany @ 3/1 Boylesports BOG 

Five points staked. 

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Friday, 24 July 2015

Saturday Ascot

Hoping to avoid the Pricewise curse by posting before those selections are released at 21:00. My selections are: 

 15:15A 1.5pts ew Lincoln @ 14/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 
 15:15A 1pt ew Brazos @ 25/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

Five points staked. 

Note Coral are 16/1 Lincoln but only four places. I prefer the Betfred wager. 

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TGS - Benteke

I'm adding the Liverpool acquisition to my TGS portfolio. That will do for me I think, two against the field both each-way:

1pt ew Christian Benteke top premier league scorer @ 20/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Two points staked.

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Thursday, 23 July 2015

BOG forecast

A blog reader has asked me how to place a BOG (best odds guaranteed) forecast.

As far as I am aware Bet365 is the only company that offers this. Simply go to the Bet365 "Forecast" section which appears directly under the relevant race card. Tick BOTH 1st and 2nd against your selections, then click "Add To Bet Slip". The forecasts on the bet slip will show the guaranteed odds for each forecast.

In yesterday's Sandown race both my selections were 11/2 and thus the Bet365 BOG forecast dividends were the same: 35.42. Had Macdillon and Pucon been backed into, say, 5/1 each the SP forecast dividend would have been around the 30.00 mark but we would have been guaranteed the higher dividend of 35.42.

As it turned out Macdillon started at 5/1 but Pucon surprisingly drifted to 7/1. The SP forecast paid 39.00 and this is what Bet365 paid out - as did any other bookmaker where you stipulated a SP forecast.

Our return on the Sandown race is thus 13 points on Macdillon win and 19.5 points on the 0.5 point forecast. Total return 32.5 points, profit on the race 27.5 points. (Four points loss at Leicester).

No bets today.

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Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Republican candidate

Sixteen runners for this I believe and, of course, no ew betting!!

We all know that America elects some strange Presidents (eg Bush x 2, Reagan etc). Well how about Donald Trump getting in on the act? He is polling pretty well apparently...

Actually I tried to back him yesterday with WH @ 28/1. I was offered 9p at the price so declined the bet. 

I have however now settled for 20/1 as follows:

2pts Donald Trump to be Republican candidate @ 20/1 Betfred 

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Leicester/Sandown

Strange market activity with yesterday's selection at Ffos Las. Initially it was backed into 16/1 (in some cases from 33/1). However I knew we had no chance closer to the race as it drifted to 90.0 on betfair. The betfair market was correct.

With regard to the W Rooney wager, 20/1 was available for several hours after posting before 16/1 became the top offer. Wouldn't put you off the latter price if you missed the 20/1 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) despite the talk of another striker joining the club.

Had bets on a couple of races tonight as follows:

17:45L 2.5pts win La Havrese @ 5/1 William Hill BOG
17:45L 0.75pts ew Choral Clan @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

20:50S 2pts win Pucon @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG
20.50S 2pts win Macdillon @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG

0.50pt rev forecast the above two. (Take the prices with Bet365 = 35.42 fcast BOG. Will lock in 11/2 twice and pay more if SP bigger)

Total nine points staked. 

Good luck if you get involved.




Tonight's racing

I may have a bet and if I do so will publish what I've done before 16:30

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Tuesday, 21 July 2015

Ffos Las


Interesting entry in a very moderate handicap at the Welsh venue. Runs from one pound out of the handicap and wears cheekpieces for the first time. Capable Cathy Gannon in the saddle:

16:30FL 1pt ew Titus Secret @ 20/1 William Hill BOG 

33/1 with Ladbrokes if you have an account...

Two points staked. 

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Premier League

There was a small profit on the golf. It looked at one stage as though Danny Willett would not be one of the first four Englishmen let alone win the category. However a blitz of birdies in the middle of his final round took him two clear of his fellow countrymen. He couldn't hang on to the outright lead though and Rose birdied the last to dead heat with the selection. 

In the TGS market we had a good run with Harry Kane towards the end of last season. That's encouraged me to go for an early pick in the market this year. The way the team is being set up at Man Utd you've got to think Wayne Rooney will have plenty of goal scoring opportunities this season. I've played him as follows:

2.5pts ew Wayne Rooney top premier league scorer @ 20/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

Price also available with WH although they don't seem too keen to lay me much of a bet these days...

Five points staked. 

It's possible I'll have a horse bet Tuesday and if I do I will publish it before 10am.

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Sunday, 19 July 2015

Weekend results

First of all my ludicrous cricket bets are losers. Aussies surely will go on to win the series. No more bets here for me.

In the golf, it's all down to Danny W tomorrow. My outright selections were scuppered by their first round draws and despite a rally by Fowler today it's a huge task for him to make the frame.

Danny is level on -9 with Rose and as latter is odds on for the English accolade we can't hedge. Particularly with Pepperell just one shot back.

Terrible horse selection Saturday: John Caesar. Looked dreadful animal albeit in a moderate grade and also an awkward ride. Finished fourth of course which many ew selections seem to when three places are up for grabs!

At least Farron has weighed in as Lib Dem leader. Looks like VC and PP are going to payout, having gone through the administrative hoops it seems are necessary when accounts have been closed and there are unresolved bets there on. That helps the annual figures but it's at moments like this I think: is it all worth it? But of course that's what the bookmakers are hoping you are thinking (if you are in front).

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Saturday, 18 July 2015

Saturday racing

Not getting too involved today - too many meetings, eight in the UK plus the Curragh!

One small bet at Ripon:

17:35R 1pt ew John Caesar @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

Available with several firms.

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Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Sandown

Two against the field in the first at Sandown:

18:00S 2pts win Equally Fast @ 10/1 Skybet BOG
18:00S 2pts win Pillar Box @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

Four points staked.

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Open Golf Championship

Here's another sport I don't know much about and here are the bets I've had so far:

0.75pts ew Hideki Matsuyama First Round Leader @ 45/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.25pts ew Rickie Fowler Outright Winner @ 18/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6) 
0.75pts ew Martin Kaymer Outright Winner @ 40/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt ew Danny Willett Top Englishman @ 14/1 Coral (1/5 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Ladbrokes are currently offering 20/1 Fowler if you are allowed to bet with them.

Total stakes 7.5 points. 

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Sunday, 12 July 2015

Paddy Power - cricket

They changed the 5-0 price within seconds of laying me pence @ 45/1. In the unlikely event of 5-0 obliging I will book the bet at 40/1 which is available in three places (inc PP) as I write.

Cricket - momentum

A friend said the other day that betting on cricket was hugely unpredictable and should therefore be avoided. I sort of agreed with him and then I remembered the few bets I'd had on the sport and the fact I'd managed to find the Australia series score 5-0 in late 2013 @ 33/1. I don't think I've had a bet since (correct me if I'm wrong). Therefore in terms of  %ROI cricket is my most successful blogged sport! 

I don't follow the sport and know nothing about it so please don't read on if you are not relaxed about that statement. Momentum is a big thing in sport and that's why I've had the following (possibly mug) bets:

1.5pts England to win series 4-0 @ 25/1 Betfred
1pt England to win series 3-0 @ 20/1 Betfred
0.5pts England series 5-0 @ 45/1 Paddy Power 

Total three points staked. 



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Wimbledon men's final

The bookmakers are finding it hard to separate Djokovic and Federer in Sunday's final. After Federer's sublime performance against Murray I have to side with the Swiss. He has won 89 of his 90 service games in the tournament. Djokovic has had a more difficult passage to the final nearly going out to Anderson when stretched to five sets. The Serb has also been troubled by his shoulder although he has played down any injury worries. They have played three times this year - all in finals. Djokovic is 2-1 but Fed's win came on the very quick courts of Dubai. 

I'm not interested in a top price of 11/10 Federer so have played the set betting markets hoping it is not a repeat of last year's final which Novak won in five. I've had:

2pts Federer to beat Djokovic 3-0 sets @ 6.4 Unibet (similar price available betfair)
1pt Federer to beat Djokovic 3-1 sets @ 5.5 Boylesports 

Three points staked. 

BTW both my ew selections were placed (second and third) in the 14:10 Ascot race which therefore resulted in a winning day.

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