Friday, 30 October 2015

Breeders' Cup - Saturday

Two good value losers today both well supported but neither ran particularly well. We have Make Believe in the Mile tomorrow @ 7/2 which has attracted some support and is likely to start 11/4 or shorter (IMO). 

I'm not playing the Classic but have backed three others tomorrow. It would be nice to go out with a winner but it's very competitive and therefore stakes are minimal: 

16:05 R3 2pts win Rachel's Valentina @ 9/2 Coral BOG

16:45 R4 1.5pts win Lady Shipman @ 13/2 Coral BOG

17:25 R5 1.5pts win Judy The Beauty @ 5/1 Coral BOG

3 x 0.5pt win doubles and 0.5pt win treble above three with Coral (2pts) 

Total seven points. 

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Breeders' Cup

Played a couple of races at Keeneland as follows: 


19:30 R6 2pts win Shogun @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:50 R8 2pts win Illuminate @ 15/2 Skybet BOG 


19:30 R8 4pts win Make Believe @ 7/2 Will Hill (and/or Bet365)

Total eight points

May have a bet in the Classic tomorrow. Good luck if you are involved. 

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Thursday, 29 October 2015

Tennis update - Red group

Great match from A-Rad taking out Halep in straight sets despite being 5-1 down in the first set tie-break. She now needs Pova to beat Pennetta 2-0 later this morning to reach the semi finals. If Pova wins 2-1 then Pennetta is through to the semis in second place in the group.

Incredibly, if Pennetta beats Pova by any score she will top the group and land the 9/1 bet. However she is 11/4 to win the match against a now inform Pova. The Italian does hold a 3-2 H2H with the Russian, winning the latest three matches, which should give her some confidence.

Wednesday, 28 October 2015

American stuff

Tennis bets look to have gone pear-shaped unless we get a miracle from Pennetta who was suffering from blisters during her win over Radwanska......

In the battle for Rebublican candidate in the forthcoming presidential election we have a nice position on Trump @ 20/1 - currently he is no better than 9/2. He has led the polls for months but has now slipped into second place behind Ben Carson as follows:

The latest CBS Republican national nominee poll: 

26% – Carson 

22% – Trump 

8% – Rubio 

7% – Bush, Fiorina (tied)

Given that the front two are so far ahead I've had: 

1pt Ben Carson to win Republican nominee @ 9/1 Betfred

Obviously a long way to go but the favourites (Bush, Rubio) have got it all to do it seems. 

Breeders' Cup thoughts coming soon but meanwhile...

Whilst on American matters check out the excellent film Mississippi Grind. Basically it revolves around the exploits of two gamblers and is well worth seeing. Brilliant acting from both players. Sunday Times film of the week. Don't miss. Here's the trailer: 

Saturday, 24 October 2015

WTA Singapore

I've pretty much finished on the horses for this season, although I may find something to bet on at the Breeders' Cup next weekend. Meanwhile I've found myself getting involved in the end of season WTA championship which starts in Singapore tomorrow. 

The Red Group looks the most interesting from a punting perspective because of Sharapova's long lay-off and the question marks over Halep's fitness. The other two players in the group are top priced at 5/2 (the inform Radwanska) and 9/1 (Pennetta, US Open winner) to win the group. 

I've backed them both and pressed up in the outright market as follows: 

4pts Radwanska to win Red Group @ 5/2 Boylesports 
2pts Radwanska to win tournament @ 6/1 Betfred

1.5pts Pennetta to win Red Group @ 9/1 Paddy Power 
1pt ew Pennetta to win tournament @ 20/1 Coral (1/3 odds 1,2) 

In the White Group I think Kerber, who has had some good results since the US Open, could go well: 

3pts Kerber to win White Group @ 2.8/1 Boylesports 

Total 12.5 points

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Monday, 19 October 2015

Restricted betting

Today is one of those days when restricted betting is a good thing! That's because I've lost less than I would have done had I been able to place bets in the sizes I wanted to.

Nevertheless it was a disappointing couple of races, particularly the 15:10P where my selection Pamushana was backed as though defeat was out of the question: from 7/1 to 3/1 favourite only to finish a poor fourth.

Back to the subject of restricted betting. There was an interesting programme yesterday on Radio Five Live which you should listen to if you've not already done so. It's called Five Live Investigates and was broadcast at 11am. There are two subjects discussed and betting is the second item starting around 11:40.

In general, this subject is getting more coverage in the media and two recent articles illustrate this:

Guardian - Ladbrokes

Guardian - punter accounts

Whether this increased exposure will lead anywhere remains to be seen.....

Zealous 14:10P

With the above selection having been backed into as low as 5/2 in places, it has now been declared a non-runner. A shame. I have now backed this one instead:

14:10P 1pt ew Maulesden May @ 8/1 Coral BOG

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Sunday, 18 October 2015

Monday racing

Time nearly up with the end of the flat season just a few weeks away. Couldn't resist a couple of plays at Ponte tomorrow. It was no good at all for me at the last meeting but here goes: 

14:10P 3pts win Zealous @ 7/2 Betfred BOG
14:10P 1.5pts ew Permera @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

15:10P 2pts win Pamushana @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG 

2 x 0.5pt ew doubles above selections with Betfred (13/2 Pamushana BOG) 

Total ten points. 

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Thursday, 15 October 2015

Matchbook Traders' Conference

Tremendous day at the Emirates yesterday. Here's a one minute flavour of what was for many at least a 12-hour day (including the Camden after conference party of course!):

Pleased to see old friends from the industry I'd not seen for 15 years or so. Plus, incredibly, some readers of my blog who I'd never met or spoken to before. One lad even fondly recalled my Covent Garden 17p soup deal from earlier this year (March). The good news is the £1-off vouchers are currently available again on their website. The bad news is I can't find any supermarkets (yet) with an offer below the full price of £2.35...!

Particularly interesting to hear the insight into Brentford and FC Midtjylland from Mathew Benham and Rasmus Ankersen. Learnt quite a lot of other stuff too.

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

Thank you

Many thanks to those readers who have written comments on my post 'future of this blog'. Much appreciated. 

Good luck with you wagers. Hope you can get on!

Sunday, 4 October 2015

Pontefract Monday

Bets as follows:

15:05P 4pts win Lovely Memory @ 2/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:05P 2pts win Iconic @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG 

16:15P 1.5pts win Red Paladin @ 6/1 Paddy Power or Bet 365 BOG
16:15P 1.5pts win Ivor's Involvement @ 5/1 Paddy Power or Bet365 BOG 

2 x 1pt doubles Lovely Memory 2/1 PP with 16:15P selections
2 x 0.5pts doubles Iconic @ 13/2 B365 with 16:15P selections 

Total 12 points.

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The future of this blog

The blog betting advice commenced on 8 December 2009 and will close no later than 7 December this year. We are currently showing an accumulative profit of 1,540 points (+20.6%). Whatever happens in the remaining months, it will mean a significant profit accrued over the six year operational period. 

There are a number of reasons for the service ending. Firstly the restrictive practices of bookmakers, e.g. the removal of the BOG (best odds guaranteed) concession from many accounts. Add to this the 'virtual' closing of most of my accounts - by this I mean the amounts one can win when taking a price being reduced to ridiculously low levels. William Hill, for one, allow me bets TO WIN £5 on many of their early price races. This is a grossly unfair practice. Bookmakers should not be allowed to take unlimited bets from punters who consistently lose and virtually no bets at all from anyone who shows any betting knowledge/skills. If I'm that good why not lay me £50 and then change the price? 

So there we have it. I'll continue to publish bets I've had, however small, for the rest of the flat season. I will continue not to quote prices, however, offered by a bookmaker who has (completely) closed my account. A growing list. 

Bets for Pontefract Monday will follow this post.

Good luck with your future wagers. 

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Update earlier than expected but prices are more settled now:

13:35L 1pt win Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

15:40L 0.75pts ew Maarek @ 14/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 
15:40L 0.75pts ew Steps @ 18/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)  

Note few books offer first four ew in 15:40. Those that do include B365, Betfred and Sky. 

In the Arc I've played a miracle forecast or two. Treve's pacemaker is drawn two and I'm hoping my selections, drawn three and four can tuck in behind. Anyway: 

14:55L 6 x 0.25pts comb forecast New Bay, Eagle Top and Erupt (1.5 points) 
14:55L 2x 0.5pts straight forecasts Treve to beat Eagle Top or Erupt (1 point) 

I have done my forecasts with Bet365, BOG, with prices locked in as follows: NB 11/2, ET 33/1, E 25/1 and T 5/4

Good luck if you're involved. 

Total 6.5 points. 

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Further bets @ 13:00

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Saturday, 3 October 2015

Arc 2

My second bet for the Arc is Eagle Top. I backed it yesterday with the aforementioned Unibet. I noticed they were offering 50/1 and 1/4 odds 1,2,3. 

I had a bet with them which had to be submitted for approval. It came back as £4 ew accepted. All a bit of a joke really and 50/1 quickly cut after that and no chance of a blog suggestion. 

Just noticed Coral have changed their book from a fifth the odds to a quarter so I have topped up as follows: 

Sun 14:55L 1pt ew Eagle Top @ 40/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 

Ground may suit and well drawn.

Two points staked.

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Saturday horses

Will probably have another bet in the Arc, but for now this is what I've had on the Saturday cards: 

15:15L 4pts win Cirrus Des Aigles @ 7/2 William Hill 

15:45A 1.5 pts ew Gabriel's Lad @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
15:45A 1pt ew Rene Mathis @ 18/1 Betfred BOG

Nine points staked. 

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Friday, 2 October 2015


I attended the London Racing Club preview of Arc weekend last night. Very enjoyable evening. Not surprisingly the members of the panel were pretty keen on the chances of the favourite and dual winner Treve: 

The panel: Hayley O'Connor, Gina Harding, Claud Charlet and Adrian Beaumont 

Of course the all-important draw was not known last night. Subsequently the favourite has been drawn in eight, an ok draw. With 18 runners declared it is a significant advantage to be drawn in single figures. Here are the draw positions of the winners for the last ten years: 


The 15 was of course Treve's first win two years ago. It took an exceptional performance to overcome the filly's poor draw. 

As for the betting, there is no way I could get involved in an 11/10 chance but such a short price in the field means a bit of value in the ew market. Careful though because as I write Paddy Power and Coral are only offering 1/5 odds 1,2,3 whereas most other firms offer 1/4 odds. 

Had my first post draw bet a few minutes ago. Was offered 91p ew by W Hill so played with Unibet instead! I can't recall the panel mentioning Erupt in the preview. The colt is a bit of a forgotten contender following his defeat behind New Bay in the Prix Niel having been unbeaten before that. He's drawn in four on Sunday. I'll record the bet with WH as I'm sure most readers (if you decide to play) would be accommodated for more than 91p and are more likely to have a WH account than a Unibet account. Also you'll get BOG, which Unibet don't offer: 

Sun 14:55L 1.5pts win 1pt place Erupt @ 33/1 W Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 

Total 2.5 points staked. 

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Just playing the difficult first race:

14:20A 1.25 pts ew Elusive Guest @ 20/1 W Hill BOG
14:20A 0.75 pts ew Ogbourne Downs @ 20/1 Coral BOG

If you do get involved be careful as there is another horse in the race called Guest (which the market will tell you is more likely to win!). 

Four points staked. 

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