Monday, 31 December 2012

Oh, lucky you

I remember reading a few years ago that "experts" had declared the best year to have been born in the 20th century was 1948: financial, social and educational policies have worked very much in favour of our generation. Think state-funded university grants, growing up with the Beatles, the end of national service and the birth of the NHS; followed by final-salary pension schemes for many.

Here is a quote from an Ian McEwan novel written about a dozen years ago which, I believe, has even more relevance in today's austere times:

"How prosperous, how influential, how they had flourished under a government they had despised for almost 17 years. Talking 'bout my generation. Such energy, such luck. Nurtured in the post-war settlement with the State's own milk and juice, and then sustained by their parents' tentative, innocent prosperity, to come of age in full employment, new universities, bright paperback books, the Augustan age of rock and roll, affordable ideals. When the ladder crumbled behind them, when the State withdrew her tit and became a scold, they were already safe, they consolidated, and settled down to forming this or that - taste, opinion, fortunes." 

Ian McEwan was born on 21 June, 1948.

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Saturday, 29 December 2012

2012 Review

A disappointing year for the blog which finished with a 3.5% deficit. Overall situation still very strong with 632 points profit or 17.3%:

http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2012.php

Non-horse racing highlights were a bit thin on the ground. Best football bets were Reading for the Championship (W8/1) and B Munich ew C League (P14/1, 1/2 1,2). In tennis we had Pova at 12/1 for the French Open and Aggie at a huge price each-way for Wimbledon (P 100/1, 1/2 1,2). We even had Ernie for the golf @ 25/1 but some seriously misjudged bets on the Olympics led to the loss on sports betting.

The horse racing flat season (Mar -Nov) went well with 205 points profit or 16.8% profit on stakes. Winners at double figure prices were advised at 33/1, 22/1, 20/1 (twice), 16/1 (twice), 14/1 (twice), 12/1 (three times) and 10/1 (twice).

http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-season-2012.php

Best of luck for 2013.




Sunday, 23 December 2012

King George

Probably the last bet of 2012

.
A maximum of ten runners line up on Wednesday, ideal for an each-way bet. I see all bookmakers other than Ladbrokes are offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3. Ladbrokes currently only 1/5 odds.

I like the double figures about The Giant Bolster. Not disgraced on his seasonal reappearance, the Gold Cup runner-up should appreciate trip and ground. Will have the assistance of McCoy in the saddle. Missed the bigger price with PP earlier today so have had:

1.5pts ew The Giant Bolster @ 10/1 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Three points staked.

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Monday, 17 December 2012

SPOTY result

A bad one.

Credit to BBC though as they tried as hard as they could to stitch-up the Wiggo vote by giving him the no. 1 draw, nearly two hours before the phone lines opened. This gave plenty of time for the casuals to forget about him. Other than the occasional glimpses of him standing in the audience, looking like the star of "Confessions of a Window Cleaner", nothing further was heard about him until the lines opened.

The Jess (and Mo) edits were, of course, very favourable but to no avail. Jess finished a distant second. Her form figures are now 332. Hard to get past the well organised cycling vote and I suspect that she is unlikely to win this in the future.




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Sunday, 16 December 2012

SPOTY poll

According to a YouGov poll published this morning, it's close between Wiggins and Ennis:

"OLYMPIC gold medallists Bradley Wiggins and Jessica Ennis are neck and neck in the race for BBC Sports Personality of the Year, according to a Sunday Times/YouGov poll.

Wiggins, the time trial champion at London 2012 and the first British cyclist to win the Tour de France, and Ennis, who won gold in the heptathlon, both secured 19% in the poll of 1,794 adults last week. In third slot is Mo Farah, the first Briton to win the 5,000-metre and 10,000-metre races at the same Olympics. He received 15% in the poll."

The top five are as follows;

Wiggo 19%
Jess 19%
Mo 15%
Mugray 8%
Ellie 6%

Clearly we have the value play with 8/1 Jess. She is now clear second-favourite at a top-priced 11/2 (W Hill only 4/1). Let's hope she gets a good edit and favourable draw to edge the TdeF winner tonight.



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Saturday, 15 December 2012

Ba - TGS

Our man is going well with 11 goals, just one behind joint-leaders Michu and Van Persie. As the only ante-post football wager put up so far, prospects look good as he is 14/1 best from the 40/1 each-way taken. 

However we were in a similar promising position last Christmas before Cisse joined the team and Ba goals completely dried up (one goal scored in the league after Cisse joined during the window). 

Seemingly no danger from Cisse this season as he appears to have completely gone. In fact aside from Ba, Newcastle cannot score with our man responsible for the majority of goals in the league. The threat is of a different kind - Ba leaving the club in the window. Could work for us if he goes to Arsenal or Tottenham but obviously not if he goes overseas. 

If he leaves then Newcastle are potentially in real trouble. They are on 17 points just two points above the drop zone. I've just backed Newcastle to be relegated at 12.0 on betfair. Visits to Man U and Arsenal over the Xmas period are not going to be much good to them and they could find themselves in the bottom three come January 1st.

3pts Newcastle to be relegated from Premiership @ 12.0 betfair 

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Update 19:18 I see that 12.0 went soon after posting. Obviously some of you have stuck on. If you have missed out I would not put you off 10/1 with Lads or Boyles, which is only about half a point shorter after commission.  

Wednesday, 12 December 2012

SPOTY - additional bets

I am writing this from my sick bed as I have not been well for the last few days. However I have been able to use the Internet today to research the latest on SPOTY which of course takes place this Sunday. 

There is a strong rumour that the voting period is to be condensed into a 30-minute session at the end of the presentation of the individual VTs. This could make the result of the voting a little more random and lessen the impact of multi-voters (e.g. Wiggins' supporters). I think this also aids the chances of getting a surprise result in the top three - hopefully one of the rags (to be placed) that I flagged up in a previous post. 

It's possible the BBC may try and dampen the Wiggins' vote by giving him an early "draw". After all do they want a third cyclist winning in five years, given the Live-wrong furore? 

I have changed my mind about Mo and now think that Jess could be the main danger. She was of course the (BBC) face of the Olympics and is bound to be given a highly favourable VT. She is the only woman priced at under 80/1 and given the issues last year about an all male line-up I think she will end up a strong second-favourite before the show.

I have had a couple more bets today, first on Jess:

6pts win Jess Ennis to win SPOTY @ 8/1 Paddy Power 

With regard to Wiggins I have taken an outside punt by laying him for a top three finish @ 1.04. This has now moved to 1.05 to lay but given there are three cyclists in the final 12 I think this is worth a play:

Lay Wiggins @ 1.05 for top three finish to lose 5pts with betfair. (Potential winnings 100 points less commission)

There is the potential with the lay bet to trade out for a profit if, for example, Wiggins should turn up in a D Clarke-style shiny suit!

Total invested today 11 points.

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Saturday, 8 December 2012

John Durkan Memorial Chase

Recently back from Fairyhouse where we saw some top class action at the two-day meeting. 

One of the most interesting runners we saw was Bog Warrior who was put back over hurdles following disappointing recent runs over fences. He absolutely trotted up at even money under a big weight in an 18-runner handicap. His shrewd trainer must think the horse has got his confidence back as he returns to the bigger obstacles against the highest company tomorrow.

However I am only taking a small interest as he is, quite rightly, the outsider of the four runners:-

14:00 Punchestown 1pt win Bog Warrior @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

If you are having a bet check betdaq first as there is a bit of 14.0 available as I write.

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Thursday, 29 November 2012

Nicola Benedetti

Saw the great Scottish fiddler at the Birmingham Symphony Hall last night. She was in great form in a fabulous venue. Played the Szymanowski violin concerto with which she won the BBC Young Musician of the Year back in 2004.

View of CBSO from my seat:



Under starter's orders:



Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Chablis value

In anticipation of cleaning up (!) at Fairyhouse I have put in an advance order of chablis. Like most things in life you have to get the value, so I have gone for a Tesco punt that was originally put up at £10.99 a bottle:

http://www.tesco.com/groceries/Product/Details/?id=273951464

It now trades at £5.49 a bottle. However Tesco has an offer this week of 25% off if you buy six bottles. So this brings the price down to a very attractive £4.11 per bottle!

You can get the deal in-store or online but for free home delivery you will need to spend fifty notes.

Don't take my word for the quality, here's what The Times' Jane MacQuitty said about it (when priced £5.99):

"Ignore the stupid name and grim label and tuck into this rock bottom-priced chablis. ...this gets my vote... elegant, waxy, smoky, nutty, wine. Just the ticket with a plate of smoked trout or salmon."

Cheers!!


Tuesday, 27 November 2012

X-factor update

Our portfolio looks a bit shakey - pun intended.

Here it is in full:-

3pts ew Union J @ 14/1 (1/5th 1,2,3)

Price now: 20/1 best with sporting-shite but more importantly odds-on to finish fourth and deny us the ew return. Not good.

1pt win Chris 20/1, 1pt win Chris 16/1 (w/o Ella), 1pt straight forecast 6/1 Jahmene-Chris

Price now: Chris 6/1 best but as low as 4/1 sporting-shite. Forecast now available @ 7/1. According to leaks Chris has topped the poll every week to date. Whether this continues who knows but money has been coming for him last 24 hours or so. To quote Kevin Keegan: "I would love it" if he won as I was chucked off the sofabet site some weeks ago for criticising the site and in particular their selection of him to depart at short odds in previous weeks.

Would be fantastic if the anti-Cowell, anti-xfactor selection won. I still think it's possible as only old fogies watch the shite now. I certainly won't be tuning in this week as - floods permitting - I hope to be in Dublin for the Fairyhouse gig this weekend.

Nine points invested so far and last throw of the dice is:

1pt James next elimination @ 8/1 Coral

Rationale:

1. Union J to get bounce from bottom two last week
2. James has been in bottom two and already benefitted from bounce
3. Chris never in bottom two and popularity to continue
4. Jahmene never in bottom two and leaks say second best most weeks
5. James too off the wall for old fogies who make up increasing share of the audience!

SPOTY

Now we know the final twelve. We have already lost money on the event before it starts as gold medalist Queen Vic is not in the final. In fact all but one in the final twelve is an Olympic gold medalist, the exception being Rory McIlroy.

Like Cavendish last year, Wiggins is a very short price. Unlike Cavendish though the opposition is a lot stronger and I think you could make a case for eight or nine of the twelve winning. I cannot believe Bradley is 2/5 and I am tempted to lay him as I did unsuccessfully with Cavendish last year!

My idea of the winner is Mo Farah available at 8.0 (7/1 less 5% commission) on betfair - somewhat better than bookmakers' top price of 5/1. For this reason I'm not booking a bet but I think 8.0 should be considered. Not least as my wife says that for her his two races were the defining moments of the Olympics!

Interestingly Coral is the only bookmaker currently betting on a top three finish (excluding betfair) and some of the prices are just too big, given the earlier comment about eight or nine runners being worthy contenders.

I have therefore had a few small bets in the hope that a "rag" can make the frame:

1pt Rory McIlroy SPOTY top three finish @ 50/1 Coral (Internet only: 40/1 shops)
0.75pt Ben Ainslie SPOTY top three finish @ 66/1 Coral
0.75pt Chris Hoy SPOTY top three finish @ 80/1 Coral
0.5pt Nicola Adams SPOTY top three finish @ 100/1 Coral

You can tell from the stakes above there is a lot of guess work here! What we need is a viral marketing campaign to spring up centred on one of the four listed.

The other wager I had sometime ago was a point on Ellie Simmonds @ 80/1 who at least has made the final twelve. She is now top price 66/1 and I have had a small further bet as follows:

1pt win Ellie Simmonds without Bradley Wiggins @ 40/1 Betfred (Lads only 16/1)

Total invested four points

Saturday, 24 November 2012

Re Saturday horses

A rare horse bet outside of the regular flat season:

20:20W 2pt ew Majuro @ 7/1 Coral BOG 

Four points staked.

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Friday, 23 November 2012

The man who moves markets!

I have just had my maximum allowed bet on a straight forecast with Paddy Power - £6.80p @ 6/1 on Jahmene/Chris (xfactor). They immediately moved the price to 5/1. Unbelievable and no doubt that this was a result of my bet. I then topped up with my maximum allowed with skybet on the same wager - £4.17p. So before that price disappears I am logging:

1pt st. fcast Jahmene/Chris xfactor @ 6/1 Skybet

Neither act has finished in the bottom two unlike all other competitors.

It is fast becoming not worth betting with these pathetic firms. If they don't close your account they restrict you to fivers or a tenner if you are 'lucky'.

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Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Flat season review

Well it's been a good one. You will see from the published figures that I finished the flat season with 16.9% profit:

www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-season-2012.php

It's a shame that Indignant could only finish second at Doncaster on Saturday having been a late plunge from the 10/1 we took down to 5/1 joint-favourite.

The calendar year to date for all bets is not so good with a small deficit - 2.28%. However the overall profit from the inception of the blog is showing 660 points profit or 18.3%.

I don't expect to be posting much in the next few months. I will be having a rest from punting (other than the Dublin trip planned for the end of the month). Going on a cultural trail of concerts, films and a catch up of the novels sitting in the bookcase waiting to be read!

Saturday, 10 November 2012

Saturday horses

Well this is it for another year. Last flat season punt is of course at Doncaster today. Seventeen-runner handicap doesn't make it easy but having two attempts:

13:25D 2pts each-way Bond Club @ 22/1 Coral BOG
13:25D 2pts win Indignant @ 10/1 Coral BOG

Six points staked.

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Friday, 9 November 2012

ATP finals

Del Potro takes on Federer tomorrow afternoon and needs to beat him to reach the semi-finals. Federer has already qualified for the last four. 

Paddy Power offers 18/1 the Argentinian winning the event including an each-way provision. 

I couldn't believe it when Federer told everyone he played a great match to beat Ferrer in straight sets. The fact is he didn't - just check out his unforced error count. Delpo won his latest encounter with Federer in Basel and in the match before that I was lucky enough to watch him go down narrowly to Federer 19-17 in the final set of their Olympics' encounter. Delpo was so close that day and appeared to leave the court in tears after the defeat.

I hope the big man fares better tomorrow as I have had:

1pt each-way Del Potro to win ATP finals @ 18/1 with Paddy Power (1/3 odds 1,2) 

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Thursday, 8 November 2012

X-factor shite 3

Money still coming for the Liverpool no-hoper who is generally a 16/1 shot to win. But in the WH market w/o Ella you can get 16/1 Maloney so that has to be worth a small top up:

1pt Chris Maloney to win X factor without Ella @ 16/1 William Hill

Also available with bet365

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Review/x-factor shite 2

Disappointed that Uncle Dermot could not hang on to the lead at Nottingham yesterday and that (after-time alert!) the only horse I thought was a danger turned out to be the winner of the race. This followed on from the decent second place in the Melbourne Cup for my 25/1 each-way selection Fiorente. The selection's SP was 30/1 and it was trading at 44.0 on betfair the evening before the race so naturally I pressed up with some additional win money to no avail. 

The last 2012 flat season bets will be at Doncaster on Saturday. I am very confident that my approach can produce good profits in 2013, given access to a decent variety of betting accounts. However more accounts have been closed or restricted this year than for many years and it remains to be seen whether I will be able to achieve the range of prices needed to secure the value.

With regard to x-factor, unfortunately it looks like my ew poke Union J could get squeezed out of the frame. Money is coming for the "cruise-ship" singer Christopher Maloney as according to leaked reports in "The Sun" I understand he is polling twice as many votes as any other contestant. No doubt the producers will be out to stitch him up ASAP. You just wonder, with the reduced viewer numbers this year, whether a "rogue" contestant could win - as has happened a couple of times in SPOTY ( e.g. Ryan Giggs). Unlikely I realise but wouldn't it be terrific is Cowell got a winner he didn't want?

A very speculative 1pt win Chris Maloney to win x-Factor @ 20/1 Boylesports 

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Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Wednesday horses 2

No damage in the first. Two further bets:

12:40N 1pt ew Simple Rhythm @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

13.10N 1pt ew Work Ethic @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

0.5pts ew double above two at the prices

Five points staked.

Wednesday horses

Good news from the USA. We would have been beat with a man wearing sacred underpants in charge of the western world. He believes god lives on the planet Kolob. Spell the planet in reverse and that tells you all you need to know about it.

Meanwhile more down to earth considerations at Nottingham:

15:15N 3pts win Uncle Dermot @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

12:15N 1.5pt ew Dancing Maite @ 9/1 Skybet (offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3 and top price)

Further Nottingham bets may be posted after the first race.

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Sunday, 4 November 2012

Saturday review

Apologies for the tennis advice chaps. Could not have got it more wrong as Safarova, for once, held her nerve and Kvitova came through with no apparent medical problems. So that's the end of Serbia's challenge.

Two selections at the Breeders' Cup: both tailed off. As for the Turf runner I was right to take on the Europeans but annoyingly my selection's trainer won the race with his second string at 25/1.

Flat season ends next weekend. Possible plays at Nottingham mid-week and Doncaster Saturday. And that will be it until March 2013. Selections over the jumps will be few and far between.

Off to Ireland - Fairyhouse - at the end of the month so that should be fun. Been to this particular two-day fixture three times - but not since 2001. My Paris exploits will appear shortly in the next LRC mag and will also be published on my website before too long: "Drawn to the Arc", sub-titled: "Down but not quite out in Paris".

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Friday, 2 November 2012

Fed Cup

The tie will open tomorrow with Ivanovic v Safarova, a "your-choice" even match with the bookmakers. Safarova has the better recent record in the H2Hs but I don't think she is one to have on your side in a tense situation.

When Czech Republic beat Russia in the final in Moscow 3-2 last year it was Safarova's two singles matches that produced the 0-2 and in those matches she never looked likely to win a set against either of the Russian B team (Kuznetsova and Pavlyuchenkova).

Kvitova plays Jankovic tomorrow and will of course be a warm favourite to beat the Serb despite her continuing health issues. The indoor court is said to be on the slow side so that would obviously suit the underdog in this match.

The Czechs are of course highly likely to win the doubles whoever the Serbs put up so realistically they need to win the singles 3-1 to prevail. The 2/1 we took earlier about Serbia has gone but PP is still offering 15/8 which I believe is worth a top up given the uncertainty of Petra's health and the potential nerves affecting Safarova's game. I have had:

4pts Serbia to win Fed Cup final @ 15/8 Paddy Power

Thursday, 1 November 2012

Breeders' Cup 2

Looking forward to watching a bit of the Fed Cup on Saturday, apparently Kvitova is going to play as she is in the process of recovering from her various ailments. Should be interesting. 

Meanwhile I've played an outsider in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, race six in the Breeders' Cup tomorrow. This race is run drug free. The only home runner who has never taken drugs (i.e. Lasix) is Kitten's Point. This may (or may not) give her an advantage against the home team as they will be coming off Lasix for this race.

She's drawn one. Again, possibly favourable:

21:28SA 1pt each-way Kitten's Point @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1,2,3)

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Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Wednesday horses

At Nottingham:

12:20N 1pt ew Sandwith @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:30N 3pts win Ajuba @ 10/3 Coral BOG

Five points staked

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Fed Cup final

The Fed Cup final takes place in Prague this weekend when the Czech Republic play Serbia. Cornerstone of the Czech team is of course Kvitova who cost me notes in the WTA (Istanbul) finals last week when she withdrew after her first match through illness.

On Monday Kvitova played an exhibition set in Prague against Sharapova and from what I have read was absolutely awful in a 6-1loss to the Russian. Home pressure will be huge on the 2011 Wimbledon champion this weekend and the Serbian team will be ready to strike if there is any weakness in the Czech team. 

I think the Serbian women have a better than 2-1 chance of emulating the Serbian men who triumphed in the 2010 Davis Cup final and thus became national heroes in doing so. I have had:

5pts win Serbia women to win Fed Cup @ 2/1 Skybet 

(2/1 is also available at Stan James) 

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Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Breeders' Cup

Takes place at Santa Anita this weekend. Not been there but I am a four-time visitor to the Breeders elsewhere. But not this century. 1999 was my last visit when Frankie won the Turf on Daylami. Not expecting to have many bets this time around. For now going for one in the Turf against the Europeans:

2 pts win 1pt place Dullahan to win Breeders' Cup Turf @ 12/1 William Hill

Probably play a couple of races at Nottingham tomorrow.

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Monday, 29 October 2012

Monday horses 2

To complete my two-pronged attack on the Leicester race, my other wager is:

14:20L 1.5pts win Toto Skyllachy @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Sunday, 28 October 2012

Monday horses

Not long now until the end of the flat season. Hopefully we can land a couple more winners before it's over. It's gone pretty well and the 18.5% profit to date has (almost) neutralised losses this year on other sports. Results to date are here:  http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-season-2012.php

I'm playing one race at Leicester tomorrow. Two selections against the field. One price taken tonight and a follow up on the race in the morning:

14:20L 2pts win Weapon Of Choice @ 10/1 William Hill BOG




Saturday, 27 October 2012

Jack lands massive gamble for us at Doncaster

A great result in the big sprint. Jack Dexter wins a comfortable neck at 4/1f. As you know I took 13/2 BOG last night with WH. However you may have noticed that WH's price this morning was 8/1 so hopefully some of you may have taken that bigger price earlier today. Interestingly Pricewise had two selections in the race (neither of which was placed) and despite the market support for these Jack was backed from 7/1 to 4/1 favourite on the course.

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Friday, 26 October 2012

Saturday horses

Jack is in the box seat again tomorrow. He did us a favour at Ascot in a big field so here's hoping for his hat trick:

14:30D 5pts win Jack Dexter @ 13/2 William Hill BOG (or Coral BOG)

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Friday horses

Looks like just one horse today:

15:15D 2pts ew Fitz Flyer @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Four points staked.

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Monday, 22 October 2012

WTA championships

The WTA finals start tomorrow in Istanbul. The most likely winners - Serena and Vika - have been drawn in the same group, so you'd expect them both to qualify for the semis. In the weaker group Kvitova and Pova are the favourites to come through. Kvitova won this event last year of course and is very at home on indoor courts. On the negative side she has been in poor form of late, hence the odds available on her winning this event. 

It's a bit of a leap of faith but I think Petra is worth a small each-way bet as follows:

1pt ew Petra Kvitova to win WTA championships @ 9/1 Paddy Power (1/3rd odds 1,2)

I have also had a bet on the group:

2pts win Petra Kvitova to win White Group @ 9/4 Paddy Power 

Total four points.

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Monday horses

Just the one race of interest today. The Nursery at Pontefract. I think that Scepticism and Ingleby Symphony may try and dominate the race from the start. This tactic could of course set the race up for something else, but I'm hoping one of them can hang on! I just favour the Johnston runner:

14:20P 2.5pts win Scepticism @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG (also available Coral BOG)
14:20P 1.5pts win Ingleby Symphony @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG
0.5pt reverse forecast above two (William Hill SP)

Five points staked

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Sunday, 21 October 2012

Can the pusher win a grand slam?

Wouldn't it be ironic if Wozniacki won a grand slam now she is no longer top of the rankings? She certainly looked good in winning the Kremlin Cup this week and I noticed how many winners she was hitting in her matches. Previously it was often the case that she would only hit three or four even in along match. She has been reaching double figures this week. Is this a new era of attacking tennis for the "pusher"?

Who knows but 45/1 with PP (who bet NRNB) is worth a small interest. SW and VA probably too strong but it's a big price:

1pt ew Caro Wozniacki to win Australian Open @ 45/1 with Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

(40/1 with Ladbrokes or William Hill is acceptable)

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Saturday, 20 October 2012

Saturday horses

Not a very original choice but this one should go well in the ground:

16:45A 3pts win Jack Dexter @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

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Friday, 19 October 2012

Saturday tennis

We'll be having a couple of bets at Ascot tomorrow where the ground could be heavy on the round course which would suit the Champion Stakes selection CDA who revels in the mud.

Meanwhile a bet on the tennis in Moscow taking on my nemesis Woza yet again:-

2.5pts win Sofia Arvidsson to beat Wozniacki @ 4/1 Pinnacle Sports

Sophia has been playing really well all week defeating the "looker" MaKiri comfortably today.

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Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Nottingham update

Good news and bad news. First of all Precision Strike has gone in @ 33/1 - unfortunately I only staked 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 but at least we are bogged up to SP 33/1. The horse was very weak on betfair and 40.0 was available early in the day hence my light staking. Haven't seen the race yet but you know what they say - you never have enough on a winner! 

Our 50/1 poke in the 16:50 is a non-runner. Yougoigo had been backed down to 14/1 in places so I was expecting a big show! Going to have a small replacement be as follows:

16:50N 1.5pts win Ginger Ted @ 8/1 Blue Sq/888.com 

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Wednesday horses 3

Final bets at Nottingham:

14:10N 0.75pts ew Beau Select @ 25/1 William Hill BOG
14:10N 0.5pts ew Precision Strike @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

17:20N 1.5pts win 1pt place Lord Buffhead @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked

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Wednesday horses 2

Here is a very speculative play at Nottingham:

16:50N 1pt ew Yougoigo @ 50/1 Betfred BOG

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Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Wednesday horses

I'll probably have a couple of bets at Nottingham tomorrow, starting with a 20/1 shot:

16:20N 2pts win 1pt place North Star Boy @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

Three points staked.

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Monday, 15 October 2012

Champion Stakes update

Eight runners declared and CAD is now a best priced 4/1. All bookmakers except William Hill currently betting each-way only on the first two. Hills continue to offer one-fifth odds 1,2,3 which has prompted me to have the following bet as they are best price:

1.5pts ew Declaration Of War @ 50/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 1,2,3.

AOB's dark horse relishes soft ground.

Three points staked.

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Sunday, 14 October 2012

The value of the BOG

Once again the value of the BOG (best odds guaranteed) concession was in evidence today.

Whereas my main selection in the 15:45G (Gouray Girl) was a warm order, going off at 8/1 having been 10/1, my second selection in the race (Sugar Beet) started at an amazing 50/1, having been an early price of 25/1 which I had shrewdly secured!

Gouray Girl was annoyingly beaten 1/2 length into fifth thus denying us an e.w. payout. Sugar Beet, however, was not far away from winning the race finishing runner-up at 50/1. Because the bets were placed at W Hill BOG, we are paid on Sugar Beet at 50/1 (1/4 odds) i.e. 12.5/1 place odds instead of the 6.25/1 place odds payable on the early price.

Two more companies have recently joined the BOG roll of honour. These are Stan James and Coral. Stan James are no longer any good to me. They used to lay me bets to win £100. I got into the habit of having, say, £10 @ 10/1 and then going elsewhere for the balance of my bet. Unfortunately this pattern of enormous staking proved too much for their fearless layers and they closed my account a couple of months go. It's a shame Pinnacle don't offer UK horse race odds as they are one of the few firms prepared to lay bets these days.

So remember to look for the BOG labels ( "B" on oddschecker) when searching out your early prices!

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X-factor shite

Watched the new series for the first time last night. Programme goes on far too long  - over two hours! Betting market is pretty settled now with Ella Henderson odds on with all firms. She may well win but because of her price there is scope for an each-way play.

Only three firms are not betting win only: Sportingbet, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. Forget the first of these unless you don't have a PP account. Based on the teenage girl screamer/voter factor, I like Union J at the 12/1 with Paddy Power (Ladbrokes 9/1):

3pts each-way Union J to win x-factor @ 12/1 Paddy Power (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Six points staked

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Saturday, 13 October 2012

Sunday horses

One race at Goodwood tomorrow:

15:45G 2pts win 1pt place Gouray Girl @ 10/1 William Hill BOG
15:45G 0.75pts ew Sugar Beet @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

4.5pts staked.

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Friday, 12 October 2012

Can Frankel remain unbeaten?

I'm just starting to think about the Champion Stakes next Saturday and what the ground could be like. They will have had plenty of rain at Ascot recently and after a couple of days respite rain is forecast again from the middle of next week. Is it possible they might not run Frankel in the Champion Stakes if it turns really soft?

The only real challenger in the ante-post market is last year's winner the gelding Cirrus Des Aigles whom I saw win his come back race at Longchamp last Saturday when beating my ew selection Hunter's Light by nine lengths. The ground was of course heavy, conditions that really suit Cirrus. Nevertheless it was an impressive performance as the horse was said to be not fully wound up. It is difficult to see what could possibly beat Cirrus Des Aigles at Ascot other than Frankel. 

Therefore I have had a major each-way punt as follows:

7.5pts ew Cirrus Des Aigles to win Champion Stakes @ 5/1 William Hill (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Total 15 points staked.

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Friday horses

Today at Bath in the last:

14:40B 2pts win 1pt place Six Wives @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG
14:40B 1.5pts win Macdillon @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

4.5 points staked

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Bodog - ludicrous name, ludicrous company

I was interested to read in today's (Friday's) Racing Post that the ludicrous Bodog is in the process of withdrawing their sportsbook operations from UK/Europe.

According to the RP Bodog "moved to dispel fears that they are in financial trouble when insisting that all players wishing to leave the website will be able to cash out their money."

I wrote a short piece about this firm back in June:-

http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/bodog.html

Hopefully the above article may have encouraged you not to get involved with the firm.

Good riddance I say. Goodbye Bodog.

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Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Non runner in 15:00N

Dutch Masterpiece is a non-runner in the Nottingham race so, as my forecast bet is with William Hill the bet becomes a single @ SP on Millkwood. I think most bookmakers settle this way but if yours doesn't you will need to decide what to do with your void stake. For the purposes of the blog however it will be on Millkwood to win.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Wednesday horses

One race of interest at Nottingham, the Nursery at 15:00. Millkwood ran well here in finishing close up fourth last time out. Obvious danger is the top-weight favourite:-

15:00N 1.5pts win Millkwood @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:00N 1pt straight forecast Dutch Masterpeace to beat Millkwood @ SP

Total 2.5pts

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Sunday, 7 October 2012

Monday horses

After the excitement of Paris - but unfortunately a complete lack of winners - it's back to the more mundane setting of Pontefract for our next bets. Need to get back on track so that the flat racing season bets show a healthy profit come the first week in November.  

One race of interest tomorrow:

15:10P 3pts win Fire Ship @ 10/3 William Hill BOG
15:10P 1pt ew Dubawi Gold @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

Five points staked

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Sunday horses

Money for Yellow And Green in the Arc so 33/1 taken looks tasty as it is now half that price thanks to Pricewise putting it up. 

Ground will be heavy tomorrow as it has been raining all evening here in Paris. 

Some tentative selections for the rest of the card given the underfoot conditions:-

13:55L 2pts win Mayson @ 9/2 Paddy Power

14:30L 1.5pts win Alterite @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

15:05L 2.5pts win Pedro The Great @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

16:55L 2pts win Sommerabend @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Eight points staked

Just hope now it's not abandoned! Would be the first time in history - unbroken run from 1920 except for 1939-40.

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Saturday, 6 October 2012

Arc - very soft ground forecast

Having just left the track I can report that it's riding very soft as it rained throughout the afternoon. 

My two main selections for the Arc are both drawn low, as a single figure draw has won this race in nine of the last ten runnings. It's just possible the "wide runners" could get into this this year so I am adding one more selection to the portfolio. This one is drawn 15 but its best form has been on very soft ground. Of its four victories two have come on very soft ground and one on heavy ground. The bet is:

1.5pts win 1pt place Kesampour  to win the Arc @ 40/1 William Hill BOG

Probably post something for the Abbaye later but first it's scallops and Chablis on the Boulevard Georges Seurat! (Arty-farty punters will know which district of Paris I am in!).


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Friday, 5 October 2012

Saturday horses

Just one bet in the UK tomorrow, at Ascot:

15:35A 2pts win 1pt place Captain Bertie @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

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Longchamp Saturday

In Paris now. I am off racing tomorrow but going to play one now in the Prix Dollar each-way against the hot-pot:

13:00 2.5pts each-way Hunter's Light @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

Five points staked

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Arc

Jumping in with both feet:

6pts win Saonois  to win Arc@ 8/1 Totesport NRNB

2pts ew Yellow and Green to win Arc  @ 33/1 Coral (1/4 1,2,3) NRNB (33s 1,2,3,4 VC Bet)

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Friday horses

Longchamp later meanwhile small interest in the first at Ascot:

14:20A 0.5pts ew Effervescent @ 40/1 Ladbrokes BOG
14:20A 1pt win Whimsical @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

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Thursday, 4 October 2012

Arc

I am blogging from a hotel in SW London as I am en route to Paris for the Arc. Tonight I attended the LRC (London Racing Club) Arc preview. Not only did this focus on the Arc; Champions' Day, Breeders' Cup and Melbourne Cup were also covered.

The panel included the superb Racing UK analyst Steve Mellish and the respected International Bureau chief Adrian Beaumont. 

Steve, who tipped Danedream at 33/1 last year at this gig, is keen on Sea Moon. However the draw will be announced tomorrow morning so I am keeping my powder dry until then. (We already have a small bet on Shareta @ 10/1).

However I have had a small interest in the Melbourne Cup as follows:

1pt ew  Fiorente to win Melbourne Cup @ 25/1 Paddy Power
1pt win Mount Athos to win Melbourne Cup @ 8/1 Paddy Power

Three points staked 

Possible Arc bets from 10am tomorrow 

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Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Wednesday horses 4

Final two selections on a very busy day:

14:50No 1.5pts win Amber Heights @ 9/1 888.com 

16:10S 1pt ew Good Authority @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

Good luck!

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Wednesday horses 3

Newcastle selections as follows:

15:45Ne 2pts win Mango Magic @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

16:20Ne 2pts win Loukoumi @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

17:20Ne 2pts win Keep It Dark @ 15/2 Skybet

17:50Ne 1pt ew Cross Of Lorraine @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

Probably one more post

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Wednesday horses 2

16:40S 2.5 pts win Cyril The Squirrel @ 7/1 William Hill BOG


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Wednesday horses

There will be a few bets today starting with Nottingham:

15:20No 2pts win 1pt place Stellar Express @ 10/1 Boylesports BOG 

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Monday, 1 October 2012

Monday review

If you didn't see the 16:50 Bath but have just looked at the result you might be thinking: "Model Behaviour, that's a poor selection it's finished last". That is just part of the story. Put up at 20/1 it had been a drifter all day touching 33/1 with Sportingbet, one of the firms that seems to have no opinion and just slavishly follows Betfair.

At the track it was very different with substantial support at all rates from 28/1 to 10/1 SP.

As soon as the stalls opened though Model Behaviour's chance had gone as the jockey had lost his irons.

Our other selection, Jawim, took it up about a furlong out but was beaten in a four-way photo finish taking fourth place at 20/1.

No horse bets tomorrow but back Wednesday for possible wagers at Newcastle and/or Nottingham if these meetings go ahead.


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Monday horses

One race of interest at Bath today. Two big-priced selections:

16:50B 1.5pts win 1pt place Model Behaviour @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
16:50B 1pt win 0.5pt place Jawim @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Four points staked

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Saturday, 29 September 2012

Demba Ba

If you missed the 40/1 I suggested recently you can still get 33/1 Demba Ba for top Premiership goalscorer with the (non) fearless layer VCbet, should you still have an account open and operational with them. The Newcastle player tops the scoring chart tonight on six goals and is as short as 12/1 with Ladbrokes, Skybet and Bet365.

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Saturday horses 7

I have a feeling it's not going to be my day today! Two close seconds with Defence Council and Long Awaited. Then Chil The Kite finishes 6th and PP pay on first five!

One last punt today:

17:45C 2pts win Beckermet @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

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Saturday horses 6

Newmarket:

15:40N 3pts win 1.5pts place Chil The Kite @ 9/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

4.5 points staked

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Saturday horses 5

Further bet at Haydock:

14:35H 1pt ew Diman Waters @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

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Saturday horses 4

Changed my mind with regard to 17:45, am having a bet now!:

17:45C 1.5pts win 1pt place Parisian Pyramid @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

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Saturday horses 3

First bet at Chester:

14:50C 3pts win Chasing Dreams @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG

I may have a bet in the 17:45 but if I do it will be after the above race.

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Saturday horses 2

Another wager at Haydock:

15:15H 3pts win Long Awaited @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Friday, 28 September 2012

Chester Saturday

Bets likely in 14:50 and 17:45 tomorrow...

Saturday horses

One early bet for Haydock tomorrow:

14:35H 2pts win 1pt place Defence Council @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

Will probably be an additional bet in this race in the morning.

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Friday horses

At Haydock today:

16:10H 2.5pts win Megaleka @ 7/1 Skybet

16:45H 2pts win Extraterrestrial @ 4/1 William Hill BOG
16:45H 0.5pts ew Loyalty @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

Total 5.5 points staked

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Thursday, 27 September 2012

Performance update

Poor tennis selection yesterday and my horse selections finish last and second last. It happens.

Thought it worth having a look at how the blog stands with regard to overall profitability. 

For 2012 to date we have just struggled back into positive territory:-

Stakes 1,798; Profit 26; % Profit 1.4% - not very inspiring but on the right side!

All blogged bets (from December 2009):-

Stakes 3,329; Profit 733; % Profit 22.0%

Finally 2012 horse racing flat season selections only:-

Stakes 1,052; Profit 222; % Profit 21.1%

Probably get back to the bread and butter stuff tomorrow with a wager or two at Haydock.

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Thursday horses

At Pontefract:

14:55P 2pts win Royal Steps @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG
14:55P 1pt win Glen Ginnie @ Betfair SP
0.5pt Reverse forecast above two

Four points staked

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Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Pan Pacific Open

I know I should stick to the horses, however I fancied a small bet on the Japanese tournament having watched Woza beat Li Na today. The Dane recovered well from a set and a break down to close the match out with confidence. Having had a poor year Woza is at last showing a bit of form, having won the Korea gig last week. 

Tomorrow she plays fellow pusher Aggie for a place in the semis. The Pole is marginal favourite but I think on current form Woza will be hard to beat. In the other quarter (in the top half of the draw) Kerber plays Vika who, allegedly, was ill on court today. It didn't stop the world number one beating Vinci in straight sets though. If Vika gets through tomorrow's match then Woza would be in a position to take advantage of any medical issues should she too progress to the semis. In any event 12/1 each-way looks worth a small play:

1.5pts ew Caroline Wozniacki to win Pan Pacific Open @ 12/1 Coral (1/3 odds 1,2)

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Wednesday review

I didn't hold out much hope for Triple Dream as it was a massive drifter. After taking 12/1 BOG it drifted to 28/1 or so on betfair and started at 16/1. In the end it was beaten less than a length. Unfortunately that was not good enough to finish in the frame, ending up in fourth place.

I can't grumble given the recent run though. Another quiet day tomorrow with possibly one selection at Pontefract.

Wednesday horses

One race today at Goodwood:

17:25G 1.5pts ew Triple Dream @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

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Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Tuesday review

Back in the winners' enclosure with success at Beverley and Folkestone. What a shame Folkestone is closing - we've been cleaning up here this summer!

The winners were both subject to 20p R4 deductions so Danzoe pays out @ 8/1 as mentioned earlier whereas I Confess, backed at 12/1, pays out at a respectable 9.6/1 (SP15/2). Total profit on the day was 33.12 points to eclipse yesterday's disappointment of a 11.9 point loss.

After today's excitement it's likely to be a low key day tomorrow with just one race under consideration at Goodwood.

Happy days!

Tuesday horses 2

Danzoe scoots in at 13/2. We took 10/1 but with a 20p R4 which means an 8/1 payout.

Further selections today:

14:40F 1pt win Michael's Song @ 13/2 Ladbrokes BOG

15:30F 1pt win Master Mylo @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

16:10B 1pt ew Swift Encounter @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

(Fairlie Dinkum NR 16:10B)

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Tuesday horses

10am inspection at Folkestone. Meanwhile:

16:10B 2pts win 1pt place I Confess @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

14:00F 2pts win Danzoe @ 10/1 Coral

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Monday, 24 September 2012

Monday review

Disappointing day with three seconds and a third including two "neck" defeats. 

Folkestone may produce betting opportunities if it goes ahead tomorrow which it may not. One race at Beverley is of interest. I've had a small bet on an outsider which may not turn out to be the main selection in the race. It finished last in its latest three races and for the last two outings it has been trained by A Crook.

Obviously will need to improve on recent form to make the frame!:

16:10B 1pt ew Fairlie Dinkum @ 40/1 William Hill BOG

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Monday horses 3

Further bets at Hamilton but no great value with the prices as the markets have settled:

16:10H 3pts win Ambitious Icarus @ Betfair SP (approx 13/2)

16:40H 2pts ew Cheyenne Red @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

17:10H 3pts win Sandwith @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

Total ten points.

The earlier Hamilton bet on Captain Scooby with WH @ 10/1 pays out at 14/1 (place) SP because it was BOG.

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Monday horses 2

 Non-runner at Leicester so have had:

17:00L 1pt ew Indian Art @ 16/1 Skybet

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Monday horses

Further inspection at Hamilton at 11:45. In any event I'm going to use the same strategy as yesterday and consider further Hamilton bets once we've seen how Captain Scooby gets on in the 14:10. If you missed 10/1 with WH that price is available with skybet as I write. 

At Leicester the going has changed from GF to G after overnight rain. I have missed the gamble on R Woody which is annoying: looks like a plot with no recent form and Buick up. So small BOG bet with PP as it might drift at the start:

16:00L 2pts win R Woody @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG

Also:

17:00L 1.5pts win Catchanova @ 15/2 Skybet
17:00L 1.5pts win Broxbourne @ 10/1 Skybet (also SJ if you can get on)

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Sunday, 23 September 2012

Sunday review

A quite remarkable day on the horses. Three selections, two winners: @ 16/1 (SP 7/1) and @ 10/1 (SP 11/2). Profit on the day was 69.5 points to take the flat season selections to over 200 points profit with a yield of 20%.

I am happy to admit it's been a very poor year for sports betting. Terrible results at Euro 2012 and the Olympics with only average tennis returns. Even the jockeys' championship went pear-shaped! My mid-season strategy was to try and pull things around by making a good profit on the horses. 2012 has now moved (perhaps temporarily) into marginal profit overall. Given the poor sports betting results I'd be happy with anything near break even for the calendar year. After all we were 700 points in front coming into January 2012.

Let's see what the rest of the flat season brings us - starting with:

14:10H 2pts ew Captain Scooby @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Hamilton may not even go ahead with the heavy rain forecast but if it does last year's winner who is a soft ground performer should have a good chance.

More selections from Hamilton tomorrow if it's on and probably something at Leicester too.

Sunday horses 3

Really good chop at Hamilton 16/1 winner - returned 7/1 - no R4s either!

Last horse for today:

16:20H 2pts ew Coolminx @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG


Sunday horses 2


15:50H 2.5pts ew Heroic Endeavour @ 16/1 Coral

Sunday horses

At Hamilton today:

14:20H 2.5pts win Megamunch @ 5/1 Skybet

I may have further bets at Hamilton after the above race has taken place.

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Saturday, 22 September 2012

Saturday horses

On the evidence of the first race I have decided to have the following wager:

14:20A 1pt ew Kaldoun Kingdom @ 10/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

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Friday, 21 September 2012

Laura Robson 4

Laura Robson has continued  her improved form in China. She has beaten the Chinese numbers two and three having beaten the Chinese number one Li Na at the US Open. Indeed she has beaten three players ranked above her in reaching the final of the Guangzhou tournament: Zheng Jie (22), Cirstea (30) and Peng Shuai (47). Laura is currently ranked 74.

She is the first British female since Jo Durie to reach the final of a WTA event. She is very likely to win it too.

I know we already have the miracle bet @ 200/1 for her to win Wimbledon 2013 however I feel that she is improving so fast that a small interest for the Australian Open at the current odds with William Hill will not break the bank:

0.75pts ew Laura Robson to win Australian Open 2013 @ 125/1 William Hill 


Friday horses

This blog is called value betting. We certainly had that yesterday with 16/1 about a 15/2 chance. No such value today and only one race of interest. The selection has been backed overnight so very little value left for us. Nevertheless the wager is as follows:

15:50L 3pts win Welease Bwain @ 7/2 Ladbrokes BOG

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Thursday, 20 September 2012

Thursday review

Shadowtime does the business trotting up at 16/1 (SP an incredible 15/2). Eighteen points profit on the day and now five days of consecutive horse racing profits. In this period we have accrued over 48 points profit and that does not include the AOB 50+ point return.

There will probably be a bet in one race at Lingfield tomorrow...

Thursday horses 2

Wasn't going to play another race at Ponte but have changed my mind:

15:30P 1pt ew Shadowtime @ 16/1 Coral

Thursday horses

Small winning days the last two days to extend our sequence to four consecutive winning days of horse betting. Have not got great confidence of extending that to five, nevertheless one small bet:

18:00P 1pt ew Layla's King @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Just to confirm the prices of the last two winners. Centrifugal paid 3.6-1 after 10p R4 (SP 2/1) and Rocket Rob paid 3.825-1 after 15p R4 (SP 5/2)

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Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Wednesday horses 2

At Beverley:

15:40B 1.5pts ew Mandalay King @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

16:20B 2pts win Ingleby Star @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked

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Wednesday horses

At Sandown:

14:20S 2.5pts win Rocket Rob @ 9/2 Skybet
14:20S 0.75pt reverse forecast above with Rebecca Romero

Four points staked

Beverley bets to follow.

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Tuesday, 18 September 2012

Ba back in it?

Didn't think I'd be having having a football bet this season however last night's match has changed that. Demba Ba scored twice for Newcastle only coming onto the field in the second-half. 

Last year, in the first-half of the season, Ba was a revelation scoring 15 Premiership goals before the January window to lie second in the TGS table. Then it all fell apart. He departed for the African Cup and during that time Newcastle signed his Senegal team-mate Cisse who was promptly given the iconic number nine shirt. He was to do the shirt justice scoring a notable 13 Premiership goals for Newcastle in what remained of the season. 

Having missed three Premiership matches because of the African Cup Ba was to score just once more - on 5 February - to end the season on 16 goals in seventh place. This was despite playing in most of the remaining fixtures. He finished just one goal away from joint fourth place and two away from outright fourth which was frustrating for ew TGS backers including me!

The question now is whether Pardew will restore Ba to the starting line-up. There must be a good chance of that given his tally of three Premiership goals and the excellent performance he put in last night. Therefore I have had:

2.5pts ew Demba Ba to be top Premiership goalscorer @ 40/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

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Tuesday horses

Low key day, selections at Folkestone:

15:50F 1.5pt win Centrifugal @ 4/1 Coral

16:20F 2.5pts win Vestibule @ 2/1 William Hill BOG

Total stake four points.

You may be surprised to learn that a football bet may follow later.....

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Monday, 17 September 2012

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

I watched the three Arc trials from Longchamp yesterday with interest. Of the three races I thought last year's runner up Shareta was the most convincing winner. She is still priced at 10/1 with Paddy Power to go one better this year.

I am not getting heavily involved as yet because the draw is important. You need a horse drawn in single figures and maybe in the first six depending on the ground.

I am looking forward to going to the Arc for the first time next month and will undoutably have more than one bet in the race. For now it's:-

1.5pts win Shareta to win the Arc @ 10/1 Paddy Power

Saturday, 15 September 2012

Saturday review

Only one winner but Secret Look does the business. Great price 9/1 as SP only 9/2 (No R4!). Profit on the day's selections is therefore 4.5pts.

But of course AOB wins only four English classics so the blog wins 53.5pts on that particular market (2pts @ 12/1 and 3pts @ 10/1 less 0.5pt on the full set).

I didn't get to see much racing today but was able to cheer Secret Look home in a betting shop in Abergavenny having also watched Camelot fail to win the Leger minutes before that.


Saturday horses

Chester:

13:40C 3.5pts win Beau Mistral @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

15:55C 1.5pts win Secret Look @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
15:55C 1pt win Time And Place @ 3/1 Paddy Power

Bath:

13:45B 2pts win Beauty Pageant @ 12/1 William Hill BOG
13:45B 1pt win Falasteen @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Newcastle:

15:10N 1.5pts win Hills Of Dakota @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

10.5pts staked

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Friday, 14 September 2012

Friday review

After a horrible day on Thursday when I didn't even pick up a place, Chester has turned things around.

In the first race the selections went 1-2. I could not understand the riding tactics on the 9/1 shot though, I thought it would be ridden like it was at Chepstow - straight out of the gate and try to make all. Instead the rider took a pull and went round the outside of all the runners to end up being beaten just a neck.

In the second race Going French made all from trap two. The big surprise here was the SP. We took 100/30 BOG with Betfred but will be paid out at 9/2!

Nine points staked on the day, return 28.80 points.

Friday horses

Chester wagers:

17:00C 2pts win 1pt place Portrush Storm @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG
17:00C 1pt win Ferdy @  3/1 William Hill BOG

17:30C 4pts win Going French @ 10/3 Betfred BOG
17:30C 1pt win Catalyse @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Nine points staked

Thursday, 13 September 2012

Thursday horses 4

Final selections for today unless any of my selections are non-runners:

16:25C 0.75pts ew Chicamia @ 22/1 Paddy Power BOG

17:00C 0.5pts ew Olynard @ 11/1 Bet365 BOG

2.5 points staked

Thursday horses 3

15:55C 2.5pts win Kunzea @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

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Thursday horses 2

Chepstow, just missed 16/1 this one:

15:20C 2pts ew Plexolini @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

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Thursday horses

Bets at Doncaster:

13:15D 1pt ew Elle Woods @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
13:15D 1pt win Annecdote @ 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG

16:05D 1.5pt win 1pt place Sohraab @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

0.25pt ew double Elle Woods @ 20/1, Sohraab @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Chepstow bets to follow

Six points staked

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Wednesday, 12 September 2012

St Leger

As you know I have backed A O'Brien to win four or five English Classics.

In January I had 2pts @ 12/1 four classics and 0.5pt @ 40/1 five classics:-


You will see from the above link that I remarked at the time VC was offering 50/1 the full set, a price unavailable to me, hence - in part - the reason for having had such a modest bet @ 40/1! 

Hopefully you lucky VC customers availed yourselves of plenty of the 50/1!

On 1May I topped up with 3pts @ 10/1 four classics.

So you can see now that AOB NOT winning the Leger will yield a profit of over 50 points for the blog whereas a Camelot victory will result in just 15pts profit. Clearly we cannot address this imbalance as there is no value in backing Camelot.

One of my horse racing contacts - who in fact persuaded me to have the above bets - is keen on the ew chances of Thomas Chippendale in the race. I have therefore had the following bet with the sponsors:

1.5pts ew Thomas Chippendale to win St Leger WITHOUT Camelot @ 12/1 Ladbrokes

Three points staked

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Wednesday review

Jack Luey breaks his run of third places (six) by finishing second!

Good news for ew backers is that despite three non-runners there was no rule 4 deduction imposed by Bet365. Likewise with W Hill if you took their 18/1 ew this morning. However some firms have deducted a 5p R4.

Consequently we have a return of nine points for our three point investment.

Probably bets from Doncaster and Chepstow tomorrow.

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Wednesday horses

Probably just the one selection today:

17:15D 1.5pts ew Jack Luey @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG

Three points staked

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Tuesday, 11 September 2012

SPOTY

What a difficult call SPOTY will be this year. Plenty of Olympic gold medalists with valid claims. Now Mugray enters the picture, not only as a gold medal winner but now as a grand slam winner (ending 76-years of hurt etc). Mugray is now second favourite (behind Wiggins) at around 3/1.

I have already lost money on this market - on Queen Victoria - who is now an 800/1 chance on betfair as I write. Clearly winning a gold medal and looking good won't be enough - although success in "Strictly" could help.

Maybe we could be in for an upset this year. How about the bubbly Ellie Simmonds causing that upset? Just a small interest:

1pt win Ellie Simmonds to win SPOTY @ 80/1 Coral (also blue sq/888)

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Monday, 10 September 2012

Mugray

We had no chance of Berdych beating Mugray in the semi. The Czech's high ball toss proved to be a big problem in the near tornado conditions. Despite that he played quite well in winning the first set.

Mugray must now have a decent chance of beating Djoko in the final. The latter leads the H2H 8-6 but I thought Mugray was very impressive at the Olympics when I was fortunate to be there to see him beat Djoko 7-5 7-5 on Wimbledon's grass.

I think the match is tighter than the 3.15 put up by Pinnacle. I have therefore mug punted Mugray as follows:

5pts win Murray to beat Djokovic @ 3.15 Pinnacle Sports
1pt Murray to win 3-1 in sets @ 7/1 Betfred

The match is due to start at 9pm UK time. Disgracefully you cannot watch it on terrestrial TV. However you can watch it for free on Livescorehunter.com on your laptop or desktop PC.

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Monday horses

Selections from Newcastle today:

15:30N 1pt ew Hab Reeh @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

16:00N 1pt ew Gertmegalush @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

16:30N 2.5pts win Burnwynd Boy @ 9/2 Coral (5/1 with Stan James if you are allowed to bet with this firm)
16:30N 6 x 0.30pts combination forecasts above selection with Iceblast and Ryedale  Dancer = 1.8pts staked.

Total invested 8.3 points

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Saturday, 8 September 2012

Saturday horses 3

I think Ortensia has drifted to the point where she now warrants a bet:

15:25H 3pts win Ortensia @ 7/2 Betfred BOG

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Saturday horses 2

At Thirsk:

15:30T 2pts win Defence Council @ 13/2 William Hill BOG
15:30T 1.5pts ew Diamond Blue @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked

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Saturday horses

Two bets at Haydock today:

14:15H 3pts win Face The Problem @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

16:00H 3pts win Star of Rohm @ 7/1 Betfred BOG

Thirsk bet to follow 

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Friday, 7 September 2012

Friday horses 3

Good results from Haydock with 14/1 chance narrowly beaten and then nice 9/1 winner.

Local ales likely to take their toll this afternoon so just a couple more bets:

16:10H 1.5pts win 1pt place Barkston Ash @ 10/1 with 888.com

17:05C 1pt ew Reginald Claude @ 18/1 Skybet
17:05C 0.5pt ew Pull The Pin @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

Total 5.5 points staked

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Friday horses 2

First afternoon bets:

14:00H 1pt ew Another Wise Kid @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

14:30H 1.5pt win 1pt place Liberty Island @ 9/1 Betfred BOG

4.5 points staked.

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Friday horses

One bet at Kempton in the Nursery:

19:50K 3pts win Bay Laurel @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG

I may have some bets at Chepstow and/or Haydock depending on the ground. It's currently good, good to soft in places at Chepstow but drying out. 

I'm going to the Ludlow food festival today so if I post any further bets it's likely to be during racing this afternoon.

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Murray v Berdych

I can never seem to get Mugray right. I thought he might struggle against Raonic and he won easily. Surely though he is going to have a much tougher match against Berdych in the semi-finals. Murray is 2-4 HTH with Berdych. The latter won their latest encounter albeit on clay. Berdych leads Mugray 2-1 on hard courts.

What about their US Open performances? Berdych played really well in beating world number one Federer as well as players ranked 12 and 28 in the last three rounds. Mugray has beaten players ranked 13, 16 and 31 in these rounds and only played really well in one of these matches in my view.

I think Berdych is the value at just over 15/8 with Pinnacle (2.93). He is 15/8 with Stan James who closed my account yesterday. More of this later. 

I have had: 

8pts win Berdych to beat Murray @ 2.93 with Pinnacle 


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Thursday, 6 September 2012

Thursday horses 3

No further bets at Kempton. One additional bet at Salisbury:

17:10S 1pt win Siouxperhero @ 9/1 with 888.com 

Thursday horses 2

Still considering the rest of the Kempton card. Meanwhile additional bet in 19:40:

19:40K 1.5pts ew Tunnager Grove @ 11/2 Stan James

Three points staked

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Thursday horses

Salisbury:

17:20S 3pts win Catchanova @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

Kempton:

19:40K 3pts win Tunnager Grove @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

0.5pt ew double above prices

Further Kempton bets later

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Wednesday, 5 September 2012

Wednesday so far

Good start to the day with Hoarding obliging at Lingfield (9/2>11/4). Would have been the unluckiest loser of the season if Buick had not found a gap close home to eventually win a comfortable neck. Angelito has just gone in too, survived a stewards but didn't look like ever losing it in the stewards' room. There was a R4 on the race but I have been paid at SP (15/8) because of the WH BOG stipulation. One more runner today at Kempton.

Just waiting now for the Italians to come on court between the showers. 

Wednesday horses 2

Lingfield:

14:00L 2pts win Hoarding @  9/2 William Hill BOG

Kempton:

18:30K 1pt ew Napinda @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

0.5pts ew double above two

Five points staked

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Wednesday horses

Bet at Bath this afternoon, looks a bit weak in the market but have nevertheless have had:

15:50B 4pts Angelito @ 9/4 William Hill BOG 

Ladbrokes initially went 13/8 about this one so it's a bit of a drifter.

Possible bet at Kempton and/or Lingfield tonight, will post later.

Meanwhile Vinci v Errani scheduled for 16:00 UK time. Should be interesting.

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Tuesday, 4 September 2012

Tuesday bets

First of all an update on Vinci v Errani. Latter was as short as 4/6 when the market opened but has now closed right up. This is helpful in terms of hedging on the younger Italian. In fact Pinnacle Sports and a couple of other firms now make Vinci favourite. I have had a hedging bet with Pinnacle as follows:

12pts win Errani to beat Vinci @ 2.03 with Pinnacle

Obviously you should only have the above bet if you took the 100/1 Vinci to reach the semis recommended on 25 August 2012. Bear in mind the above wager will be void if one set is not completed. You may prefer to hedge with Coral or Ladbrokes who both state one point should be played for the result to stand.

On the horses, one race at Leicester:

16:50L 3pts win Lucky Henry @ 7/2 William Hill BOG
16:50L 0.75pts ew West End Lad @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Monday, 3 September 2012

You've been sliced!

Well Radwanska has been. Carved up by Vinci in tonight's match.

Vinci now plays her doubles partner Errani - who knocked out Kerber - for a place in the semi-final. You will recall that we have a 100/1 wager on Vinci reaching the semis and this would be a first if it comes off - a 100/1 winner for the blog!:

http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/ladies-us-open.html

Not there yet by any stretch of the imagination. Errani will be favourite to beat Vinci as the higher ranked player. She leads the H2H 3-2 although two of those wins were on clay. The question now is whether or not to hedge on Errani. I've not seen any prices yet but I am assuming Errani will be a 4/6 or 4/7 shot. I'll take a look at the markets tomorrow and decide whether or not to play then...

Sunday, 2 September 2012

Murray v Raonic

I think it's time to have a little bet opposing Mugray. He looked beat at the end of his last match against Lopez in which he squeezed through in four hours. Mugray has in the past been a terrible match-up for Lopez so it was a surprise to see him run Mugray so close - in fact Lopez won more points.

Raonic boasts a 1-0 H2H over Mugray and the big Canadian seems to be at last fulfilling his potential. I have had the following: 

3pts win Raonic to beat Murray @ 3.83 with Pinnacle sports

(Similar price on betfair)

Fourth consecutive winning day on the horses with Whitstable Native obliging @ 6/1 (SP 5/1).

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Sunday horses

Low key day today, two small bets at Folkestone:

14:00F 1.5pts win Whitstable Native @ 6/1 Stan James

15:30F 1pt win Desert Strike @ 8/1 Skybet

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Saturday, 1 September 2012

Saturday horses

Chester: 

16:20C 2.5pts win Jedward @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

17:30C 2.5pts win Gin Twist @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG

Beverley:

14:40B 2.5pts win Shotley Mac @ 13/2 Coral
14:40B 2pts win Polish World @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

Sandown:

14:15S 2.5pts win Edge Closer @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

16:30S 1pt win Dusky Queen @ 10/3 Paddy Power BOG

Bath:

18:40B 3.5pts win Ring For Baileys @ 5/1 Betfred BOG

Total 16.5 points staked

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Friday, 31 August 2012

Laura Robson 3 /round-up

"Laura: I'm like, you go girl!" (teenage fan, anon)

Well teenage fan she did go and she did beat Li Na. A very mature performance particularly when she was at the wrong end of some suspect line calls/umpire decisions at crucial moments. I had a feeling that Li Na would not cope with this match up. I had invested 12 points on Li Na on the outright market (3ew @ 33/1 and 4w 2p @ 25/1). So thankfully the 2pts @ 8.52 Laura for the match wins 15 points to more than pay for the Li outright investment.

We just have Angie Kerber in the outright now. However Vinci could surprise us all by winning Angie's quarter @ the 100/1 taken! She saved match points in the last round getting past the "Shed".

Finally a good day on the horses - two wins from five selections: Tom Sawyer and Ronaldinho, 7/2 and 9/2. Stakes nine points, returns 25.68 points. Happy day(s).




Laura Robson 2

Win or lose against Li Na this girl is going places! She will be a veteran come Wimbledon 2013 at the ripe old age of 19. Remember she won junior Wimbledon aged 14.

1.5pts ew Laura Robson to win Wimbledon 2013 @ 200/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Three points staked.

Also available at 200/1 with WH. Some firm called "You Win" will give you 500/1 - will they be operating in July 2013 I wonder.

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Friday horses continued

Have been out of internet contact since early morning (until 14:30ish). Hopefully you will have guessed I was going to back Tom Sawyer in the absence of Whitecrest. Anyway just managed to post the bet @ betfair SP which only returned 4.78 or 4.59 after commission. You could have got 7/1 early doors. Hope you were on.

Two bets at Salisbury:

16:30Sal 1pt ew Marvo @ 20/1 Betfred BOG

18:05Sal 3pts win Ronaldinho @ 9/2 William Hill BOG




Late horse

Late sub for NR Whitecrest:

14:50S 2pts win Tom Sawyer @ betfair SP

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Friday horses 2

15:50T 1pt win Tidals Bay @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:20S 1pt win Ishi Honest @ 11/1 Betfred BOG

Probably bets at Salisbury tonight

Friday horses

First bet at Sandown:

14:50S 3pts win Whitecrest @ 13/2 Skybet

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Thursday, 30 August 2012

Thursday horses 3

Tiger Cub obliges at Lingfield (8/1, SP 6/1) to perk up the afternoon. Interest in one race tonight at Kempton as follows:

21:20K 1.5pts win Bint Alzain @ 15/2 William Hill BOG
21:20K 1pt ew Russian Ice @ 11/1 Stan James

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Laura Robson

A terrific match last night between Kim Clijsters and Laura Robson. If you did not see it (and have the opportunity) the highlights will be on Eurosport this afternoon. It wasn't that Kim played poorly. We know she is not as good as she was but the last time she lost at the US Open Laura was nine years old.

Laura plays Li Na next who has not played brilliantly in the first two rounds. The Chinese has a good record against lefties so I am hopeful that she will be able to cope with the teenager's much improved game and make further progress in the tournament. There are of course potentially much bigger tests for the outright selection ahead.

I have had a small match bet on Robson as I fear she could win:

2pts win Laura Robson to beat Li Na @ 8.52 Pinnacle Sports

If you don't have an account with Pinnacle similar prices are available on the "exchanges"

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Thursday horses 2

Two at Lingfield:

16:35L 3pts win Imjin River @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

17:05L 2pts win Tiger Cub @ 8/1 Stan James 

Some tennis thoughts coming next

Thursday horses

First bet today is at Hamilton:

14:40H 2pts win Noble Bounty @ 11/2 Stan James

Wednesday, 29 August 2012

Wednesday horses

Not very interesting racing today. One race at Kempton of minor interest:

20:20K 3pts win Mizwaaj @ 2/1 William Hill BOG
20:20K 0.5pt ew Shifting Star @ 33/1 Skybet

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Tuesday, 28 August 2012

Tuesday horses

Just the one race today at Ripon. Have played a little forecast bet too as this will be it for the day:

16:45R 3pts win Horatio Carter @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

16:45R 0.5pt reverse forecast Horatio Carter with Flipping (WH)

16:45R 6 x 0.2pt combination forecast above two with Daunt (WH)

Total staked 5.2pts

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Monday, 27 August 2012

Monday review

Loads of bets but no winners. Four placed horses limited the damage to a loss of just over five points on the day: P16/1 (r4 10p), P16/1 (took 10/1 BOG), P14/1 (r4 20p), P11/1. The latter was the closest we came to a winner - Defence Council went down by a rapidly diminishing head in the 17:45N

Not intending to get very involved tomorrow, off to Presteigne festival for some classical inspiration. Maybe one race at Ripon.

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Monday horses 3

15:25N 3pts win Beat The Tide @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

Re US Open dark horse

Here is a dark horse for the ladies' event. A player that reached the quarters last year. She has been injured and off the track between April and August, recently returning for just two warm-up matches. Won one, lost one. She has no chance of winning the US Open but that has not stopped me having a couple of quid @ 480.0 on betfair! The bet is:

1pt win Andrea Petkovic to win second quarter @ 40/1 Coral 

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Monday horses 2

Newcastle:

16:00N 1.5pts win 1pt place Foreign Rhythm @ 14/1 Stan James 

17:45N 1.5pts win 1pt place Defence Council @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

Chepstow: 

14:40C 1pt ew Plexolini @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:25C 2pts win 1pt place Tweet Lady @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

17:00C 0.75pt ew Trio Of Trix @ 50/1 Betfred BOG
17:00C 2pts win 1pt place Rafella @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Possible further selections 15:25N and last two races at Chepstow. Latter may not be posted until  after 17:00C race.

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Monday horses

Ripon, Newcastle and Chepstow today. First race is at Ripon:

15:35R 1.5pts ew St Moritz @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:35R 1.5pts win Compton @ 3/1 William Hill BOG

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Saturday, 25 August 2012

Ladies' US Open

For once I cannot complain about the draw. My two main hopes Li Na and Kerber have been drawn in opposite halves. What's more the number one hope Li Na is in the opposite half to the hot favourite Serena which gives chances for my ew punts. The bookmakers think so too and the Chinese is now around the 11/1 mark from the 33s and 25s taken. One could say that it's worked out even better for Serena though as besides Li Na, Aza, Kvitova and Pova are all in the top half.

In Kerber's quarter (fourth) the betting is between her and Radwanska to win that section. The latter is carrying a shoulder injury though so I have hopes that AK can reach the semi to play Serena for a place in the final. However I have just been in Ludlow's Betfred shop - a blight on the market square - but needs must. As I was only allowed 20p on the net, I have had a very speculative cash bet on the winner of this week's (weak) Dallas tournament as follows:

1pt win Roberta Vinci @ 100/1 to win fourth quarter US open singles Betfred

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Friday, 24 August 2012

Friday review

Quite a strange hectic day, but successful. The first two selections I put up were substantially backed. The Mccredie pig ended up tailed off but as 3/1 favourite - I took 11/1 with WH but despite this they briefly went 12/1 before the plunge. Dark Opal was a better outcome. On at 14/1 with a 15p rule 4 taking the price down to 11.9-1 but still way ahead of the 7/1 SP. And it won!

Of the other selections we had a non-runner, one pulled up, a place at 8/1 and last but not least 11/4 winner Lady Del Sol to end proceedings (SP 2/1) in the last at Hamilton.

All of this means a 20.08 point profit today to add to yesterday's spoils of 18.8 points profit. That pulls us back from a poor period.

I think my horse racing strategy is far more successful when there is a bit of rain about. Unfortunately I am not anticipating a horse bet tomorrow despite the weather.