Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Wednesday horses

At Nottingham:

12:20N 1pt ew Sandwith @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:30N 3pts win Ajuba @ 10/3 Coral BOG

Five points staked

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Fed Cup final

The Fed Cup final takes place in Prague this weekend when the Czech Republic play Serbia. Cornerstone of the Czech team is of course Kvitova who cost me notes in the WTA (Istanbul) finals last week when she withdrew after her first match through illness.

On Monday Kvitova played an exhibition set in Prague against Sharapova and from what I have read was absolutely awful in a 6-1loss to the Russian. Home pressure will be huge on the 2011 Wimbledon champion this weekend and the Serbian team will be ready to strike if there is any weakness in the Czech team. 

I think the Serbian women have a better than 2-1 chance of emulating the Serbian men who triumphed in the 2010 Davis Cup final and thus became national heroes in doing so. I have had:

5pts win Serbia women to win Fed Cup @ 2/1 Skybet 

(2/1 is also available at Stan James) 

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Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Breeders' Cup

Takes place at Santa Anita this weekend. Not been there but I am a four-time visitor to the Breeders elsewhere. But not this century. 1999 was my last visit when Frankie won the Turf on Daylami. Not expecting to have many bets this time around. For now going for one in the Turf against the Europeans:

2 pts win 1pt place Dullahan to win Breeders' Cup Turf @ 12/1 William Hill

Probably play a couple of races at Nottingham tomorrow.

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Monday, 29 October 2012

Monday horses 2

To complete my two-pronged attack on the Leicester race, my other wager is:

14:20L 1.5pts win Toto Skyllachy @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Sunday, 28 October 2012

Monday horses

Not long now until the end of the flat season. Hopefully we can land a couple more winners before it's over. It's gone pretty well and the 18.5% profit to date has (almost) neutralised losses this year on other sports. Results to date are here:

I'm playing one race at Leicester tomorrow. Two selections against the field. One price taken tonight and a follow up on the race in the morning:

14:20L 2pts win Weapon Of Choice @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Saturday, 27 October 2012

Jack lands massive gamble for us at Doncaster

A great result in the big sprint. Jack Dexter wins a comfortable neck at 4/1f. As you know I took 13/2 BOG last night with WH. However you may have noticed that WH's price this morning was 8/1 so hopefully some of you may have taken that bigger price earlier today. Interestingly Pricewise had two selections in the race (neither of which was placed) and despite the market support for these Jack was backed from 7/1 to 4/1 favourite on the course.

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Friday, 26 October 2012

Saturday horses

Jack is in the box seat again tomorrow. He did us a favour at Ascot in a big field so here's hoping for his hat trick:

14:30D 5pts win Jack Dexter @ 13/2 William Hill BOG (or Coral BOG)

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Friday horses

Looks like just one horse today:

15:15D 2pts ew Fitz Flyer @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Four points staked.

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Monday, 22 October 2012

WTA championships

The WTA finals start tomorrow in Istanbul. The most likely winners - Serena and Vika - have been drawn in the same group, so you'd expect them both to qualify for the semis. In the weaker group Kvitova and Pova are the favourites to come through. Kvitova won this event last year of course and is very at home on indoor courts. On the negative side she has been in poor form of late, hence the odds available on her winning this event. 

It's a bit of a leap of faith but I think Petra is worth a small each-way bet as follows:

1pt ew Petra Kvitova to win WTA championships @ 9/1 Paddy Power (1/3rd odds 1,2)

I have also had a bet on the group:

2pts win Petra Kvitova to win White Group @ 9/4 Paddy Power 

Total four points.

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Monday horses

Just the one race of interest today. The Nursery at Pontefract. I think that Scepticism and Ingleby Symphony may try and dominate the race from the start. This tactic could of course set the race up for something else, but I'm hoping one of them can hang on! I just favour the Johnston runner:

14:20P 2.5pts win Scepticism @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG (also available Coral BOG)
14:20P 1.5pts win Ingleby Symphony @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG
0.5pt reverse forecast above two (William Hill SP)

Five points staked

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Sunday, 21 October 2012

Can the pusher win a grand slam?

Wouldn't it be ironic if Wozniacki won a grand slam now she is no longer top of the rankings? She certainly looked good in winning the Kremlin Cup this week and I noticed how many winners she was hitting in her matches. Previously it was often the case that she would only hit three or four even in along match. She has been reaching double figures this week. Is this a new era of attacking tennis for the "pusher"?

Who knows but 45/1 with PP (who bet NRNB) is worth a small interest. SW and VA probably too strong but it's a big price:

1pt ew Caro Wozniacki to win Australian Open @ 45/1 with Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

(40/1 with Ladbrokes or William Hill is acceptable)

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Saturday, 20 October 2012

Saturday horses

Not a very original choice but this one should go well in the ground:

16:45A 3pts win Jack Dexter @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

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Friday, 19 October 2012

Saturday tennis

We'll be having a couple of bets at Ascot tomorrow where the ground could be heavy on the round course which would suit the Champion Stakes selection CDA who revels in the mud.

Meanwhile a bet on the tennis in Moscow taking on my nemesis Woza yet again:-

2.5pts win Sofia Arvidsson to beat Wozniacki @ 4/1 Pinnacle Sports

Sophia has been playing really well all week defeating the "looker" MaKiri comfortably today.

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Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Nottingham update

Good news and bad news. First of all Precision Strike has gone in @ 33/1 - unfortunately I only staked 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 but at least we are bogged up to SP 33/1. The horse was very weak on betfair and 40.0 was available early in the day hence my light staking. Haven't seen the race yet but you know what they say - you never have enough on a winner! 

Our 50/1 poke in the 16:50 is a non-runner. Yougoigo had been backed down to 14/1 in places so I was expecting a big show! Going to have a small replacement be as follows:

16:50N 1.5pts win Ginger Ted @ 8/1 Blue Sq/ 

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Wednesday horses 3

Final bets at Nottingham:

14:10N 0.75pts ew Beau Select @ 25/1 William Hill BOG
14:10N 0.5pts ew Precision Strike @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

17:20N 1.5pts win 1pt place Lord Buffhead @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked

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Wednesday horses 2

Here is a very speculative play at Nottingham:

16:50N 1pt ew Yougoigo @ 50/1 Betfred BOG

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Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Wednesday horses

I'll probably have a couple of bets at Nottingham tomorrow, starting with a 20/1 shot:

16:20N 2pts win 1pt place North Star Boy @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

Three points staked.

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Monday, 15 October 2012

Champion Stakes update

Eight runners declared and CAD is now a best priced 4/1. All bookmakers except William Hill currently betting each-way only on the first two. Hills continue to offer one-fifth odds 1,2,3 which has prompted me to have the following bet as they are best price:

1.5pts ew Declaration Of War @ 50/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 1,2,3.

AOB's dark horse relishes soft ground.

Three points staked.

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Sunday, 14 October 2012

The value of the BOG

Once again the value of the BOG (best odds guaranteed) concession was in evidence today.

Whereas my main selection in the 15:45G (Gouray Girl) was a warm order, going off at 8/1 having been 10/1, my second selection in the race (Sugar Beet) started at an amazing 50/1, having been an early price of 25/1 which I had shrewdly secured!

Gouray Girl was annoyingly beaten 1/2 length into fifth thus denying us an e.w. payout. Sugar Beet, however, was not far away from winning the race finishing runner-up at 50/1. Because the bets were placed at W Hill BOG, we are paid on Sugar Beet at 50/1 (1/4 odds) i.e. 12.5/1 place odds instead of the 6.25/1 place odds payable on the early price.

Two more companies have recently joined the BOG roll of honour. These are Stan James and Coral. Stan James are no longer any good to me. They used to lay me bets to win £100. I got into the habit of having, say, £10 @ 10/1 and then going elsewhere for the balance of my bet. Unfortunately this pattern of enormous staking proved too much for their fearless layers and they closed my account a couple of months go. It's a shame Pinnacle don't offer UK horse race odds as they are one of the few firms prepared to lay bets these days.

So remember to look for the BOG labels ( "B" on oddschecker) when searching out your early prices!

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X-factor shite

Watched the new series for the first time last night. Programme goes on far too long  - over two hours! Betting market is pretty settled now with Ella Henderson odds on with all firms. She may well win but because of her price there is scope for an each-way play.

Only three firms are not betting win only: Sportingbet, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. Forget the first of these unless you don't have a PP account. Based on the teenage girl screamer/voter factor, I like Union J at the 12/1 with Paddy Power (Ladbrokes 9/1):

3pts each-way Union J to win x-factor @ 12/1 Paddy Power (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Six points staked

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Saturday, 13 October 2012

Sunday horses

One race at Goodwood tomorrow:

15:45G 2pts win 1pt place Gouray Girl @ 10/1 William Hill BOG
15:45G 0.75pts ew Sugar Beet @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

4.5pts staked.

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Friday, 12 October 2012

Can Frankel remain unbeaten?

I'm just starting to think about the Champion Stakes next Saturday and what the ground could be like. They will have had plenty of rain at Ascot recently and after a couple of days respite rain is forecast again from the middle of next week. Is it possible they might not run Frankel in the Champion Stakes if it turns really soft?

The only real challenger in the ante-post market is last year's winner the gelding Cirrus Des Aigles whom I saw win his come back race at Longchamp last Saturday when beating my ew selection Hunter's Light by nine lengths. The ground was of course heavy, conditions that really suit Cirrus. Nevertheless it was an impressive performance as the horse was said to be not fully wound up. It is difficult to see what could possibly beat Cirrus Des Aigles at Ascot other than Frankel. 

Therefore I have had a major each-way punt as follows:

7.5pts ew Cirrus Des Aigles to win Champion Stakes @ 5/1 William Hill (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Total 15 points staked.

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Friday horses

Today at Bath in the last:

14:40B 2pts win 1pt place Six Wives @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG
14:40B 1.5pts win Macdillon @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

4.5 points staked

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Bodog - ludicrous name, ludicrous company

I was interested to read in today's (Friday's) Racing Post that the ludicrous Bodog is in the process of withdrawing their sportsbook operations from UK/Europe.

According to the RP Bodog "moved to dispel fears that they are in financial trouble when insisting that all players wishing to leave the website will be able to cash out their money."

I wrote a short piece about this firm back in June:-

Hopefully the above article may have encouraged you not to get involved with the firm.

Good riddance I say. Goodbye Bodog.

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Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Non runner in 15:00N

Dutch Masterpiece is a non-runner in the Nottingham race so, as my forecast bet is with William Hill the bet becomes a single @ SP on Millkwood. I think most bookmakers settle this way but if yours doesn't you will need to decide what to do with your void stake. For the purposes of the blog however it will be on Millkwood to win.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Wednesday horses

One race of interest at Nottingham, the Nursery at 15:00. Millkwood ran well here in finishing close up fourth last time out. Obvious danger is the top-weight favourite:-

15:00N 1.5pts win Millkwood @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:00N 1pt straight forecast Dutch Masterpeace to beat Millkwood @ SP

Total 2.5pts

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Sunday, 7 October 2012

Monday horses

After the excitement of Paris - but unfortunately a complete lack of winners - it's back to the more mundane setting of Pontefract for our next bets. Need to get back on track so that the flat racing season bets show a healthy profit come the first week in November.  

One race of interest tomorrow:

15:10P 3pts win Fire Ship @ 10/3 William Hill BOG
15:10P 1pt ew Dubawi Gold @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

Five points staked

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Sunday horses

Money for Yellow And Green in the Arc so 33/1 taken looks tasty as it is now half that price thanks to Pricewise putting it up. 

Ground will be heavy tomorrow as it has been raining all evening here in Paris. 

Some tentative selections for the rest of the card given the underfoot conditions:-

13:55L 2pts win Mayson @ 9/2 Paddy Power

14:30L 1.5pts win Alterite @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

15:05L 2.5pts win Pedro The Great @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

16:55L 2pts win Sommerabend @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Eight points staked

Just hope now it's not abandoned! Would be the first time in history - unbroken run from 1920 except for 1939-40.

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Saturday, 6 October 2012

Arc - very soft ground forecast

Having just left the track I can report that it's riding very soft as it rained throughout the afternoon. 

My two main selections for the Arc are both drawn low, as a single figure draw has won this race in nine of the last ten runnings. It's just possible the "wide runners" could get into this this year so I am adding one more selection to the portfolio. This one is drawn 15 but its best form has been on very soft ground. Of its four victories two have come on very soft ground and one on heavy ground. The bet is:

1.5pts win 1pt place Kesampour  to win the Arc @ 40/1 William Hill BOG

Probably post something for the Abbaye later but first it's scallops and Chablis on the Boulevard Georges Seurat! (Arty-farty punters will know which district of Paris I am in!).

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Friday, 5 October 2012

Saturday horses

Just one bet in the UK tomorrow, at Ascot:

15:35A 2pts win 1pt place Captain Bertie @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

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Longchamp Saturday

In Paris now. I am off racing tomorrow but going to play one now in the Prix Dollar each-way against the hot-pot:

13:00 2.5pts each-way Hunter's Light @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

Five points staked

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Jumping in with both feet:

6pts win Saonois  to win Arc@ 8/1 Totesport NRNB

2pts ew Yellow and Green to win Arc  @ 33/1 Coral (1/4 1,2,3) NRNB (33s 1,2,3,4 VC Bet)

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Friday horses

Longchamp later meanwhile small interest in the first at Ascot:

14:20A 0.5pts ew Effervescent @ 40/1 Ladbrokes BOG
14:20A 1pt win Whimsical @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

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Thursday, 4 October 2012


I am blogging from a hotel in SW London as I am en route to Paris for the Arc. Tonight I attended the LRC (London Racing Club) Arc preview. Not only did this focus on the Arc; Champions' Day, Breeders' Cup and Melbourne Cup were also covered.

The panel included the superb Racing UK analyst Steve Mellish and the respected International Bureau chief Adrian Beaumont. 

Steve, who tipped Danedream at 33/1 last year at this gig, is keen on Sea Moon. However the draw will be announced tomorrow morning so I am keeping my powder dry until then. (We already have a small bet on Shareta @ 10/1).

However I have had a small interest in the Melbourne Cup as follows:

1pt ew  Fiorente to win Melbourne Cup @ 25/1 Paddy Power
1pt win Mount Athos to win Melbourne Cup @ 8/1 Paddy Power

Three points staked 

Possible Arc bets from 10am tomorrow 

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Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Wednesday horses 4

Final two selections on a very busy day:

14:50No 1.5pts win Amber Heights @ 9/1 

16:10S 1pt ew Good Authority @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

Good luck!

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Wednesday horses 3

Newcastle selections as follows:

15:45Ne 2pts win Mango Magic @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

16:20Ne 2pts win Loukoumi @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

17:20Ne 2pts win Keep It Dark @ 15/2 Skybet

17:50Ne 1pt ew Cross Of Lorraine @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

Probably one more post

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Wednesday horses 2

16:40S 2.5 pts win Cyril The Squirrel @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

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Wednesday horses

There will be a few bets today starting with Nottingham:

15:20No 2pts win 1pt place Stellar Express @ 10/1 Boylesports BOG 

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Monday, 1 October 2012

Monday review

If you didn't see the 16:50 Bath but have just looked at the result you might be thinking: "Model Behaviour, that's a poor selection it's finished last". That is just part of the story. Put up at 20/1 it had been a drifter all day touching 33/1 with Sportingbet, one of the firms that seems to have no opinion and just slavishly follows Betfair.

At the track it was very different with substantial support at all rates from 28/1 to 10/1 SP.

As soon as the stalls opened though Model Behaviour's chance had gone as the jockey had lost his irons.

Our other selection, Jawim, took it up about a furlong out but was beaten in a four-way photo finish taking fourth place at 20/1.

No horse bets tomorrow but back Wednesday for possible wagers at Newcastle and/or Nottingham if these meetings go ahead.

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Monday horses

One race of interest at Bath today. Two big-priced selections:

16:50B 1.5pts win 1pt place Model Behaviour @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
16:50B 1pt win 0.5pt place Jawim @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Four points staked

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