A fair offer from Betfred/Totesport in tomorrow's King George Stakes. Only 15 runners declared so bookmakers normal terms are 1/5 odds 1,2,3. Betfred is offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4. Despite the moderate record of top trainer Roger Varian at the track, I have taken a reasonable ew interest in his runner:
15:45G 2.5pts ew Justineo @ 16/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Just shows you the value of concessions. Yesterday's ew selection at Galway - Hat Alnasar - finished fourth in the 14-runner handicap. Normally a losing bet but because of PP's extra place special our bet is paid out as a place @ 16/1 SP 1/4 odds (the SP is BOG and better than the 20/1 rule 4 price taken). Therefore we break-even on the race rather than taking a loss.
One race of interest Monday night. The 7f handicap in which there will be a maximum of 15 runners. Don't be fooled by bookmaker offers of 1/4 odds 1234 because unless they have a special concession they will not be paying on the fourth place once the (three) reserve horses are discounted/substituted. One firm that is guaranteeing fourth place is Paddy Power. My bets in the race are:
19:20G 1.5pts win 1pt place Hat Alnasar @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
A blog reader has asked me how to place a BOG (best odds guaranteed) forecast.
As far as I am aware Bet365 is the only company that offers this. Simply go to the Bet365 "Forecast" section which appears directly under the relevant race card. Tick BOTH 1st and 2nd against your selections, then click "Add To Bet Slip". The forecasts on the bet slip will show the guaranteed odds for each forecast.
In yesterday's Sandown race both my selections were 11/2 and thus the Bet365 BOG forecast dividends were the same: 35.42. Had Macdillon and Pucon been backed into, say, 5/1 each the SP forecast dividend would have been around the 30.00 mark but we would have been guaranteed the higher dividend of 35.42.
As it turned out Macdillon started at 5/1 but Pucon surprisingly drifted to 7/1. The SP forecast paid 39.00 and this is what Bet365 paid out - as did any other bookmaker where you stipulated a SP forecast.
Our return on the Sandown race is thus 13 points on Macdillon win and 19.5 points on the 0.5 point forecast. Total return 32.5 points, profit on the race 27.5 points. (Four points loss at Leicester).
Strange market activity with yesterday's selection at Ffos Las. Initially it was backed into 16/1 (in some cases from 33/1). However I knew we had no chance closer to the race as it drifted to 90.0 on betfair. The betfair market was correct.
With regard to the W Rooney wager, 20/1 was available for several hours after posting before 16/1 became the top offer. Wouldn't put you off the latter price if you missed the 20/1 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) despite the talk of another striker joining the club.
Had bets on a couple of races tonight as follows:
17:45L 2.5pts win La Havrese @ 5/1 William Hill BOG
17:45L 0.75pts ew Choral Clan @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
20:50S 2pts win Pucon @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG
20.50S 2pts win Macdillon @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG
0.50pt rev forecast the above two. (Take the prices with Bet365 = 35.42 fcast BOG. Will lock in 11/2 twice and pay more if SP bigger)
There was a small profit on the golf. It looked at one stage as though Danny Willett would not be one of the first four Englishmen let alone win the category. However a blitz of birdies in the middle of his final round took him two clear of his fellow countrymen. He couldn't hang on to the outright lead though and Rose birdied the last to dead heat with the selection.
In the TGS market we had a good run with Harry Kane towards the end of last season. That's encouraged me to go for an early pick in the market this year. The way the team is being set up at Man Utd you've got to think Wayne Rooney will have plenty of goal scoring opportunities this season. I've played him as follows:
2.5pts ew Wayne Rooney top premier league scorer @ 20/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Price also available with WH although they don't seem too keen to lay me much of a bet these days...
Five points staked.
It's possible I'll have a horse bet Tuesday and if I do I will publish it before 10am.
First of all my ludicrous cricket bets are losers. Aussies surely will go on to win the series. No more bets here for me.
In the golf, it's all down to Danny W tomorrow. My outright selections were scuppered by their first round draws and despite a rally by Fowler today it's a huge task for him to make the frame.
Danny is level on -9 with Rose and as latter is odds on for the English accolade we can't hedge. Particularly with Pepperell just one shot back.
Terrible horse selection Saturday: John Caesar. Looked dreadful animal albeit in a moderate grade and also an awkward ride. Finished fourth of course which many ew selections seem to when three places are up for grabs!
At least Farron has weighed in as Lib Dem leader. Looks like VC and PP are going to payout, having gone through the administrative hoops it seems are necessary when accounts have been closed and there are unresolved bets there on. That helps the annual figures but it's at moments like this I think: is it all worth it? But of course that's what the bookmakers are hoping you are thinking (if you are in front).
A friend said the other day that betting on cricket was hugely unpredictable and should therefore be avoided. I sort of agreed with him and then I remembered the few bets I'd had on the sport and the fact I'd managed to find the Australia series score 5-0 in late 2013 @ 33/1. I don't think I've had a bet since (correct me if I'm wrong). Therefore in terms of %ROI cricket is my most successful blogged sport!
I don't follow the sport and know nothing about it so please don't read on if you are not relaxed about that statement. Momentum is a big thing in sport and that's why I've had the following (possibly mug) bets:
The bookmakers are finding it hard to separate Djokovic and Federer in Sunday's final. After Federer's sublime performance against Murray I have to side with the Swiss. He has won 89 of his 90 service games in the tournament. Djokovic has had a more difficult passage to the final nearly going out to Anderson when stretched to five sets. The Serb has also been troubled by his shoulder although he has played down any injury worries. They have played three times this year - all in finals. Djokovic is 2-1 but Fed's win came on the very quick courts of Dubai.
I'm not interested in a top price of 11/10 Federer so have played the set betting markets hoping it is not a repeat of last year's final which Novak won in five. I've had:
2pts Federer to beat Djokovic 3-0 sets @ 6.4 Unibet (similar price available betfair)
1pt Federer to beat Djokovic 3-1 sets @ 5.5 Boylesports
Three points staked.
BTW both my ew selections were placed (second and third) in the 14:10 Ascot race which therefore resulted in a winning day.
When Victor Chandler closed my account in July 2011 I had several ante-post bets outstanding. One of those became a winner in summer 2013 when Mourhino became Chelsea manager again (Next English club = 16/1). Was the bet settled immediately? Was it hell. I had to make the contact and then supply numerous pieces of ID including my passport to get paid out. This was despite being the same person, at the same address with the same bank account and debit card.
So it will be interesting to see what happens with regard to my Tim Farron bets when, as everyone is expecting (currently 1/14), he is elected the new leader of the Lib Dem party next week. I have two bets with them dating from December 2010. My plan is not to make contact until seven days after the announcement - if it comes. Let's see what happens..
Elsewhere in the Con next leader market I have a decent book with long term bets on T May at 20/1 and 12/1 and, more importantly it would seem, G Osborne at 12/1 (placed in March this year).
Following the budget, George Osborne is now a best price 3/1.
Don't know if I can bear to watch. Just don't want to see a screaming SW win the title. I can cope with grunting, from Pova etc, but SW's outbursts - often while a rally is still in progress - come very close to hindrance IMO.
Anyway enough of that, Mugu has a chance. She is 1-2 in the H2H but her win came in a grand slam and she is a better player now having worked out how to play on grass these last two weeks. So with the risk of doubling my loss on Wimbledon fortnight I've had:
2pts Garbine Muguruza to beat Serena Williams in ladies' final @ 9/2 William Hill
Only really interested in one race the 14:10 at Ascot. No real surprise that one of my selections is that of Pricewise so hence a price crash.
My main fancy though is Desert Law who ran a good race to finish third to my two selections in the Curragh sprint on 28 June. The Pricewise tip is Taajub at 20/1 with Coral and it is my intention to take a small bet with that firm at 08:30 tomorrow. So this is how I bet and I think we have a good chance of getting one selection in the first four which would mean a profit on the day:
14:10A 1.5pts ew Desert Law @ 14/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 14:10A 1pt ew Taajub @ 20/1* Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Five points staked.
*Price should be available at 08:30 with Coral, if not will be booked at a lower price.
Desert Law finishes a creditable third to Foxy Forever at the Curragh
As noted this morning unless A-Rad wins tomorrow's semi final match it will have been a poor tournament. I have staked 21.5 points in total - including a bet placed back in January. My only return so far is nine points from A-Rad winning the fourth quarter. Things would have looked a little different had Bacsinszky (18/1 for the quarter) beaten Mugu, but she didn't so we are where we are.
I am completely discounting A-Rad winning the tourney as she would be a big underdog in the final against a big hitter: SW or Pova. She is the slight underdog against Mugu tomorrow. I have had a decent bet on the Spaniard with Boylesport to square up my position as follows:
12 pts Mugu to beat A-Rad, ladies'semi-final match @ 9/10 Boylesport Total stakes 12 points.
Bear in mind two things. Firstly I would not be having the bet had I not had 3pts ew A-Rad @33/1. Secondly the match betting rules with Boyles require the match to be completed for the result to stand. So if A-Rad retires during the match the Mugu bet would be void and the 12 points refunded.
So, discounting a retirement, the tourney outcomes are as follows: Total stakes 33.5 points A-Rad reaches final: returns, nine plus 52.5 = 61.5 points. Profit 28 points Mugu reaches final: returns, nine points plus 22.8 points= 31.8 points. Loss 1.7 points
Good luck if you are involved.
The portfolio is potentially in deficit. However we have A-Rad in contention to make the ladies' final for a significant profit. Should she do so there would be a 52.5 point return on the 33/1 ew bet. I therefore will be having a hedge bet on Mugu to beat her in the semi. The Spaniard is the slight favourite despite not liking grass (until this tournament). She lost in the first round in Birmingham before losing to Konta at Eastbourne. In contrast A-Rad made both finals.
Mugu is currently showing @ 1.9 on betfair and I will decide later today or tomorrow morning what bet to have.
No good in the 5f yesterday but at least Petra Kvitova got beat. I thought she might suffer with the heat in the first week however she breezed through the first two rounds and was being talked up big time to retain her crown. Janko ended that line of thought. Makes the fourth quarter betting interesting with my two selections, A-Rad and Keys, favourites to meet in the quarter-final. There is quite a variation in prices though and this has prompted me to take a small bet on Janko at a good price:
No damage at Sandown this afternoon thanks to BOG with Sleepy Sioux being returned at 16/1. So the return is 4.2 points for the four points total outlay. Not too exciting.
All sorts of races to tempt me tomorrow: Sandown, Haydock. Beverley, Leicester and Nottingham can all be considered. I'm going to keep it simple and just play the 17-runner sprint at Beverley! However you might consider my approach not very ambitious. The market can't separate Pea Shooter and Rusty Rocket and I tend to agree. Although I slightly prefer the former and think that this is the one that could attract market support tomorrow. I've had:
15:00B 2.5pts win Pea Shooter @ 8/1 Betfred BOG 15:00B 1.5pts win Rusty Rocket @ 8/1 Betfred BOG