Sunday, 31 January 2016

Trumped up

"Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come." - Haruki Murakami 

The election of POTUS gets properly underway tomorrow with the Iowa caucus. The last meaningful poll for this Republican caucus showed Trump in the lead on 28% (+6) with Cruz next on 23% (-2). The bookmakers generally bet 4/9 the Toupee, 7/4 Cruz, 10/1 bar.

For the Republican nomination Trump is now odds on with some firms.

If you took some 20/1 Trump for the nomination, as suggested on this blog last July, you are in a good position as you can lay him for a few quid at around 2.08 on betfair as I write. You will have to decide whether to do that or not. Betting recommendations on the blog closed on 1st November 2015 as you know! It's a timely point at which to consider your position though with everything kicking off tomorrow.



Wednesday, 20 January 2016

Racing Post article 17 January 2016

WHY I’M A RACING FAN- MIKE QUIGLEY 
The retired betting industry veteran, 67, with his memories of the sport

"Irish racing is my real passion – and I’ve visited all 27 tracks"


A SCHOOL FRIEND introduced me to horseracing, after which my father, who had little interest in the sport, indulged me sufficiently to take my bets to the local bookmaker.

“That’s another gallon of petrol for the bookie’s car!” he’d say to me.
It wasn’t until university that I visited a racecourse: Newmarket, 1967, 2,000 Guineas day when Royal Palace won. From a betting perspective it wasn’t successful. I’d been sold a ‘marked’ racecard in the car park at three times its face value. None of the selections won.

After racing it was rather fortunate I’d no money left and couldn’t be coerced by card tricksters into finding the lady. Nevertheless, I was hooked.

Not knowing what to do with my physics degree but still harbouring the racing bug, I joined Ladbrokes as a trainee manager. Later I worked for William Hill, the Tote and Betfair before retiring in 2008. My most memorable racing days have been outside Britain, including four trips to the Breeders’ Cup, plus places like Sha Tin, Pardubice, Longchamp and Chantilly.

My real passion, though, is Irish racing. In 2004 I completed visits to all 27 Irish tracks when I went to Tralee. For nearly 20 years I’ve written about my Irish trips on my website, and most articles have appeared in the London Racing Club magazine.

We live in Ludlow now which has a picturesque track – but you’re just as likely to find me at Leopardstown or the Galway festival.
‘My most memorable racing days have been outside Britain, including four trips to the Breeders’ Cup’

Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Which horse racing tipster do you follow?

As we near the calendar year end, here is how some popular tipsters are performing. 

Firstly Pricewise (2015):

Jan FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
25.00130.00-40.0027.00-203.50-350.00-237.50-297.50-145.00-30.00-75.00-20.00

Above figures are based on 10 unit stake (10 win or 5 ew as applicable).
Good record eh? Last winning month was April.
Overall the calendar year loss is 121.65 points (to one point unit stake)...(Source: bettingtools.co.uk)

Raceclear: losing in December, just had a sequence of 23 losers broken by a half point ew on 9/2 winner. Lost in calendar months Sept, Oct and Nov and currently losing overall in 2015. Loss exceeds 57 points since Sept 1st. 

Betting Emporium:  overall position, over 48,000 points staked for accumulative 1.3% win. 
Horses are better with 6.1% win overall but in 2015 they are losing heavily with substantial losses at all four feature meetings: Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot and Goodwood. These festivals total 17 days racing with a loss of over 300 points. 

As for Ben Linfoot (under the value bet banner) don't have the full figures but I understand he is currently on a 58-selection losing streak..

Figures compiled on 23 December 2015. Tricky old game it seems...

Happy Xmas!

Sent from my iPad mini

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Do you like Sauvignon Blanc?


Prestige de Calvet Bordeaux Sauvignon Blanc


It's my Christmas nap. From Tesco, normally £9.00 a bottle it's on at £5.50 until 29 December:




Well, I'll be having a nap after I've drunk a bottle.......

History

This wine comes from the Bordeaux region of South West France, the home of some of the world's finest wines. Maison Calvet have been at the forefront of Bordeaux wine production since it was founded almost 200 years ago. 



Regional info

Grapes sourced in the area of Entre deux Mers. The state of the vineyard during the year, and the grape ripeness and the sanitary situation before harvest are followed by our technical team in collaboration with our suppliers. A close technical collaboration also takes place during the vinification and ageing in order to obtain a profile respecting our commercial target.

Tasting Notes

This elegant wine is softly oaked with hints of citrus and vanilla spice.
Perfect on its own or with chicken or seafood dishes.
Storage Instructions

This wine is ideal for drinking now but can be kept for up to three years.

Sunday, 6 December 2015

Faugheen - The Machine?

Some thoughts on the Punchestown meeting 14/15 November. Perhaps more important: two good restaurant recommendations!

Punchestown visit


Thursday, 19 November 2015

There could be hell toupee..



Latest GOP polls show Trump back in front. Latest price for him to get nomination on betfair is 4.9-5.2 and best bookmaker offer is 7/2. Good news for us as we are on @ 20/1. Potentially bad news for U.S. but can't see him beating Hillary if that turns out to be the H2H....

Latest polls


Sunday, 1 November 2015

The Professor gives them all a lesson

Having looked down and out after losing two matches in the round-robin, the player they call the professor then beats the players ranked two (Halep), three (Muguruza) and five (Kvitova) in the world to take the title. She traded as high as 110.0 on betfair during the tournament.

Radwanska has won the biggest tournament of her career (and two million dollars).

It's been a losing week on the blog (thanks to too much involvement in the Breeders' Cup) however it's nice to end the service with a winning bet. We didn't win much on the WTA finals though because A-Rad's earlier match losses referred to above prevented her winning the group.




There's a good example today as to why it's fruitless to carry on betting.

I thought I'd have a look at the prices for Aggie to win the Australian Open. As you'll see she was/is 33/1 with several firms. Here were my options:

Ladbrokes - account closed.

Betfred - offered £2 ew @ 33/1

Skybet - offered £1.52 ew @ 33/1

Paddy Power - offered £2.50 ew @ 33/1

So, a waste of everyone's time I think you'll agree.

The final figures for the blog service are shown above in the heading. We've just maintained the 20% profit margin although outstanding ante-post bets will affect the final figure: 2015 bet record

There will be around eight or nine long term ante-post bets carried forward to 2016 and beyond. The football wagers look toast. But the political wagers are more promising in particular: 20/1 Trump Republican nominee, 12/1 George Osborne next Con leader and Teresa May 20/1 & 12/1 next Con leader.

Good luck with your bets going forward.