Friday, 19 September 2014

Ayr Saturday

Well that's more like it! 16/1 Expose obliges for us - albeit with a 10p in £ R4 deduction. So 15.4 points return for the four point outlay.

Going to press up in the Silver and Gold Cups tomorrow:

14:40A 1.5pts win Huntsman's Close @ 12/1 William Hill BOG
14:40A 1pt win Mehdi @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

15:50A 2pts win Blaine @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
15:50A 1pt win Racy @ 33/1 Coral BOG

May have another bet in the morning.

Total 5.5 points staked

Scotland

Well that was disappointing to say the least. Having backed the Yes team to get over 45% they end up on 44.7%.

Going to have a couple of plays in the other Scottish event taking place - Ayr. This was an incredibly successful meeting for me last year but the ground conditions are very different this week. It was soft on this day last year and in fact the word soft appeared in the going description in each of the four years since 2009 (on the Friday). Anyway having a bash at the Bronze Cup today (and potentially the Silver and Gold Cups tomorrow). I may blog Saturday's bets immediately after the Bronze result, but for now I've had:

14:40A 2pts win Cruise Tothelimit @ 14/1 Coral BOG
14:40A 1pt win Expose @ 16/1 William Hill BOG
14:40A 1pt win Rothesay Chancer @ 33/1 888.com

Four points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Scottish Independence Referendum

I've become bored with the media blanket coverage of tomorrow's vote, particularly now that Gordon Brown appears to be heading up the 'No' campaign. It seems incredible though that the result could be anything other than 'No' given the uncertainties that a 'Yes' decision could produce. (Eg. EU membership, currency, future of banks, share UK debt).

However the polls say it's too close to call with the latest three polls predicting 48% Yes and 52% No. I've therefore played in excess of 45% Yes in the following way:

4pts Yes % vote 45.01% - 50.0% @ 5/4 Betfred 

4pts Yes majority vote @ 5.3 Betfair (approx 4/1 after commission)

At least that should make the next 48 hours interesting!

Eight points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Premier League TGS

Not got involved on the blog in any football for the 2014/15 UK season. Bought the RP football pull-out and got very bored reading it - putting it to one side after just a few pages.

However have just had a bet on the Prem TGS. Danny Welbeck, who must have got a boost from last night's England match in which he scored twice. I didn't watch the game as I had no financial interest in it, so am just betting blind having seen the result. The top teams: Chelsea, Man City and to a lesser extent MU will have many scoring options. Not the case at Arsenal and you can see DW starting plenty of matches in the Premier League. I have had:

1pt ew Danny Welbeck to win Prem TGS @ 66/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4).

Only a small bet so above bookmaker may accommodate you. If not plenty of 50/1 available which is still value IMO.

Sent from my iPad 

Saturday, 6 September 2014

US Open wrap

Federer's exit tonight means the end of the blog's interest in the US Open outright markets. Can't make excuses for any of the selections....good value losers most of them.

Fortunately Andy Murray is keeping us very firmly in the black with two (Christmas day 2013) ante-post bets now landed: no grand slam wins in 2014 (10pts @ 5/4) and no grand slam finals played (2pts @ 5/1). We also have potential payouts on one of: zero, one or two ATP tournaments won in 2014 with the current score zero. My guess is he will play a maximum of three more tourneys in 2014: Shanghai, Paris indoor and possibly London - although the latter may have to be as a reserve.

Finally can I just remark on the ludicrous ride given to Highland Acclaim this afternoon. Having dwelt from the stalls, the jockey decided to switch from his low draw position (stall two) right over to tuck in behind the (high) stands' side runners, thus losing acres of ground. When the selection finally got into gear he surged up the rail to finish in fifth place beaten just two heads and two short-heads.I would think David O'Meara was furious.

Ascot

Had a couple of bets in the first race at Ascot today:

13:55A 1.5pts win Highland Acclaim @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
13:55A 1.5pts win Pacific Heights @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Three points staked.

Interesting developments in the jockeys' championship. It was only three weeks ago I took the widely available 5/2 about Hughes retaining the championship. He's now a best priced 1/5 to do so. What has happened since? Well RH has closed the gap to six (was double figures) but more importantly RLM has a four-day ban looming and has declared to the media that he will probably miss the last couple of weeks of the season owing to international commitments.

Saturday, 23 August 2014

US Open

Absolutely no good in the warm up tournaments so will be hoping for some joy in the big one which gets underway at 16:00 UK time on Monday. I am having a look at the quarter betting and if I have a bet will either post tonight or tomorrow morning. Meanwhile here is the latest on my six outright ante-post bets, now that the draws have been done and the markets have settled down:

Men's singles

 Federer  Price taken: 6/1             Best win price now: 11/4

 Raonic    Price taken 80/1           Best ew price now: 28/1

Dimitrov  Price taken 40/1            Best ew price now: 20/1

Ladies' singles

V Williams Price taken 100/1      Best ew price now 50/1

Kvitova      Price taken 20/1        Best ew price now  10/1

Bouchard   Price taken 10/1        Best ew price now 22/1

Other than Bouchard the portfolio looks ok. The Canadian, as well as being completely out of form, is carrying a hamstring injury. So her prospects look bleak.

It would of course be better for the Murray Christmas bets if he fails to regain the US Open title. He has drifted to 10 on betfair following the draw which has placed him in Djoko's quarter. I wouldn't blame you - if you are on the full Murray portfolio - having a point or two hedge @ 10.0. However I am sitting tight!

Enjoy the tourney. It's being shown on Sky Sports and Eurosport in the UK.