Sunday, 20 July 2014

Open golf result

A good effort by Rickie Fowler to close the gap from six at the start of play today to just two strokes at the finish. Not quite good enough to take second place on his own, sharing that spot with Garcia. Therefore 11/4 chance becomes 7/8 winner.

GMac shot a 67 to finish tied ninth, as he didn't reach the magnificent seven there is no payout on him. Losing tournament but thankfully less than five points.

Not a huge loss in the scheme of things. Still 126 points to the good for 2014.

Sent from my iPad

Open golf - final round update

Looks like my main two selections (Rose, McDowell) are big odds today to reach the top seven and reward the ew bets. They both played well yesterday with sub-70 rounds but surely it will be a case of too little too late even for the place money. 

Unfortunately there is no ew betting today because Rory is such a short price to win. I've had a couple of bets though on his playing partner who is the only player apart from Rory to be sub-70 in their three rounds. It's a fairly obvious bet but I like the chances of Rickie staying ahead of the chasing pack. I have had:

3pts R Fowler to win Open w/o R McIlroy @ 11/4 Coral
1pt R Fowler to win Open @ 16/1 William Hill

Above prices available with several firms. Four points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

Golf update

Just to advise that Paddy Power has cut Matsuyama by ten points since I posted earlier this evening - from 55/1 to 45/1. However the larger price is still available with Bet365 who are matching PP's offer of ew a quarter the odds the first seven places. The other two prices taken are still available as I write.

I may have another bet on the final day, depending on the status of the three bets already placed. Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my iPad

Open Golf

Long term readers will know that I seldom bet on golf. Despite that I have a pretty good recent strike rate.  I tend to concentrate on this tournament. Last year I put up Phil @ 28/1 and the year before Ernie @ 25/1. The latter bet was actually placed/blogged on the morning of the final round.

This year I have persuaded myself to get involved now as I cannot resist some of the each-way terms on offer - despite the huge field. Betfred are offering 1/4 odds first eight places whereas Paddy Power and William Hill will payout on the first seven. I feel I don't need to explain my choices - you will probably know more about the players than I do. In any event this is what I have had:

1.5 pts ew J Rose @ 16/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1 pt ew G McDowell @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5 pts ew H Matsuyama @ 55/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Total six points staked


Monday, 14 July 2014

World Cup results

Very pleasing result last evening. The final worked out exactly as I thought (and hoped!) it might. The outcome resulted in a profit of over 40% on all bets placed on the tournament and pushed the annual profit back up above 45%.

World Cup portfolio:

 World Cup 2014

2014 results to date:

 Blog bets 2014

Obviously betting activity has been severely reduced this year - thanks to bookmaker account closures and restrictions - but at least the winning World Cup bets advised on this blog would have been easily accessible to most punters. Even the most cautious of bookmakers would have allowed reasonable bets on the WC final match to so-called "clever" punters!

I hope you had a profitable and enjoyable tournament.

Sunday, 13 July 2014

World Cup final

In the semis I played the draws at 90 minutes with contrasting results. Germany embarrassed Brazil with a 7-1 win whereas the other semi finished 0-0 at odds taken of 11/5. 

I think the final could be very tight. Germany may have been flattered by their margin of victory over the hosts. The latter were easily beaten by Holland 3-0 last night. 

Argentina have only conceded three goals in the whole tournament. In the knockout stages - that's 330 minutes of football (two of the three matches having gone to extra-time) - they scored just two goals and did not concede. 

The last two World Cup finals (and three of the the last five) have finished all-square after 90 minutes. Therefore I conclude 9/4 the draw tonight (available with several firms) is a value bet. I have had:

4pts Germany v Argentina to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Paddy Power
1pt win no goal scorer (90 mins) @ 13/2 Coral

Five points staked.

I need Germany to lift the cup having taken 7/1 with Coral (generally 4/6 now). No hedge suggested. There is the small consolation of stakes refunded (only up to £25) if Argentina prevail owing to the concession associated with this bet. Let's hope the Germans can oblige.

Sent from my iPad 

Tuesday, 8 July 2014

Half-time WC semi

Well as they say the past is no guide to future results! The draw is a 400/1 chance now (at half-time) from 9/4. But at least we have Germany (7/1) in the final and they are 4/5 to win the World Cup as I write.

Sent from my iPad