Thursday, 19 November 2015

There could be hell toupee..

Latest GOP polls show Trump back in front. Latest price for him to get nomination on betfair is 4.9-5.2 and best bookmaker offer is 7/2. Good news for us as we are on @ 20/1. Potentially bad news for U.S. but can't see him beating Hillary if that turns out to be the H2H....

Latest polls

Sunday, 1 November 2015

The Professor gives them all a lesson

Having looked down and out after losing two matches in the round-robin, the player they call the professor then beats the players ranked two (Halep), three (Muguruza) and five (Kvitova) in the world to take the title. She traded as high as 110.0 on betfair during the tournament.

Radwanska has won the biggest tournament of her career (and two million dollars).

It's been a losing week on the blog (thanks to too much involvement in the Breeders' Cup) however it's nice to end the service with a winning bet. We didn't win much on the WTA finals though because A-Rad's earlier match losses referred to above prevented her winning the group.

There's a good example today as to why it's fruitless to carry on betting.

I thought I'd have a look at the prices for Aggie to win the Australian Open. As you'll see she was/is 33/1 with several firms. Here were my options:

Ladbrokes - account closed.

Betfred - offered £2 ew @ 33/1

Skybet - offered £1.52 ew @ 33/1

Paddy Power - offered £2.50 ew @ 33/1

So, a waste of everyone's time I think you'll agree.

The final figures for the blog service are shown above in the heading. We've just maintained the 20% profit margin although outstanding ante-post bets will affect the final figure: 2015 bet record

There will be around eight or nine long term ante-post bets carried forward to 2016 and beyond. The football wagers look toast. But the political wagers are more promising in particular: 20/1 Trump Republican nominee, 12/1 George Osborne next Con leader and Teresa May 20/1 & 12/1 next Con leader.

Good luck with your bets going forward.

Friday, 30 October 2015

Breeders' Cup - Saturday

Two good value losers today both well supported but neither ran particularly well. We have Make Believe in the Mile tomorrow @ 7/2 which has attracted some support and is likely to start 11/4 or shorter (IMO). 

I'm not playing the Classic but have backed three others tomorrow. It would be nice to go out with a winner but it's very competitive and therefore stakes are minimal: 

16:05 R3 2pts win Rachel's Valentina @ 9/2 Coral BOG

16:45 R4 1.5pts win Lady Shipman @ 13/2 Coral BOG

17:25 R5 1.5pts win Judy The Beauty @ 5/1 Coral BOG

3 x 0.5pt win doubles and 0.5pt win treble above three with Coral (2pts) 

Total seven points. 

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Breeders' Cup

Played a couple of races at Keeneland as follows: 


19:30 R6 2pts win Shogun @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:50 R8 2pts win Illuminate @ 15/2 Skybet BOG 


19:30 R8 4pts win Make Believe @ 7/2 Will Hill (and/or Bet365)

Total eight points

May have a bet in the Classic tomorrow. Good luck if you are involved. 

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Thursday, 29 October 2015

Tennis update - Red group

Great match from A-Rad taking out Halep in straight sets despite being 5-1 down in the first set tie-break. She now needs Pova to beat Pennetta 2-0 later this morning to reach the semi finals. If Pova wins 2-1 then Pennetta is through to the semis in second place in the group.

Incredibly, if Pennetta beats Pova by any score she will top the group and land the 9/1 bet. However she is 11/4 to win the match against a now inform Pova. The Italian does hold a 3-2 H2H with the Russian, winning the latest three matches, which should give her some confidence.

Wednesday, 28 October 2015

American stuff

Tennis bets look to have gone pear-shaped unless we get a miracle from Pennetta who was suffering from blisters during her win over Radwanska......

In the battle for Rebublican candidate in the forthcoming presidential election we have a nice position on Trump @ 20/1 - currently he is no better than 9/2. He has led the polls for months but has now slipped into second place behind Ben Carson as follows:

The latest CBS Republican national nominee poll: 

26% – Carson 

22% – Trump 

8% – Rubio 

7% – Bush, Fiorina (tied)

Given that the front two are so far ahead I've had: 

1pt Ben Carson to win Republican nominee @ 9/1 Betfred

Obviously a long way to go but the favourites (Bush, Rubio) have got it all to do it seems. 

Breeders' Cup thoughts coming soon but meanwhile...

Whilst on American matters check out the excellent film Mississippi Grind. Basically it revolves around the exploits of two gamblers and is well worth seeing. Brilliant acting from both players. Sunday Times film of the week. Don't miss. Here's the trailer: 

Saturday, 24 October 2015

WTA Singapore

I've pretty much finished on the horses for this season, although I may find something to bet on at the Breeders' Cup next weekend. Meanwhile I've found myself getting involved in the end of season WTA championship which starts in Singapore tomorrow. 

The Red Group looks the most interesting from a punting perspective because of Sharapova's long lay-off and the question marks over Halep's fitness. The other two players in the group are top priced at 5/2 (the inform Radwanska) and 9/1 (Pennetta, US Open winner) to win the group. 

I've backed them both and pressed up in the outright market as follows: 

4pts Radwanska to win Red Group @ 5/2 Boylesports 
2pts Radwanska to win tournament @ 6/1 Betfred

1.5pts Pennetta to win Red Group @ 9/1 Paddy Power 
1pt ew Pennetta to win tournament @ 20/1 Coral (1/3 odds 1,2) 

In the White Group I think Kerber, who has had some good results since the US Open, could go well: 

3pts Kerber to win White Group @ 2.8/1 Boylesports 

Total 12.5 points

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