Saturday, 23 August 2014

US Open

Absolutely no good in the warm up tournaments so will be hoping for some joy in the big one which gets underway at 16:00 UK time on Monday. I am having a look at the quarter betting and if I have a bet will either post tonight or tomorrow morning. Meanwhile here is the latest on my six outright ante-post bets, now that the draws have been done and the markets have settled down:

Men's singles

 Federer  Price taken: 6/1             Best win price now: 11/4

 Raonic    Price taken 80/1           Best ew price now: 28/1

Dimitrov  Price taken 40/1            Best ew price now: 20/1

Ladies' singles

V Williams Price taken 100/1      Best ew price now 50/1

Kvitova      Price taken 20/1        Best ew price now  10/1

Bouchard   Price taken 10/1        Best ew price now 22/1

Other than Bouchard the portfolio looks ok. The Canadian, as well as being completely out of form, is carrying a hamstring injury. So her prospects look bleak.

It would of course be better for the Murray Christmas bets if he fails to regain the US Open title. He has drifted to 10 on betfair following the draw which has placed him in Djoko's quarter. I wouldn't blame you - if you are on the full Murray portfolio - having a point or two hedge @ 10.0. However I am sitting tight!

Enjoy the tourney. It's being shown on Sky Sports and Eurosport in the UK.

Friday, 22 August 2014

Goodwood Saturday

I'm going to give one more chance to Majestic Moon who let me down at Ripon last Saturday. I have had:

14:55G 1pt ew Majestic Moon @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

(Win stake returned as a free bet if placed second or third)

Two points staked.

Thursday, 21 August 2014

WTA New Haven 2

Bouchard: gone at the game. The player who has reached the last four of every GS this year culminating in a run to the Wimbledon final without dropping a set. Since then, four matches played and just one victory. Hugely disappointing. 

One more stab at this tournament. Watched Giorgi completely destroy Wozniacki  yesterday. The Dane had no answer to the Italian's powerful play. However she is very streaky and could come out and play a stinker today. Her next opponent is Muguruza and if she gets those big strikes going the statuesque Spaniard will have no answer. If she wins tonight she would be favourite to win her semi. I have had:

1.5pts ew Giorgi to win WTA New Haven @ 8/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2) 

Three points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

Tuesday, 19 August 2014

WTA New Haven

Quite happy with my men's US Open punts - Federer is now a top price 7/2 following the anticipated withdraw of Nadal. This means of course Federer will be seeded two in the opposite half to Djoko. The other two selections are also trading at shorter prices than those taken.

It's a different story in the ladies' US Open. Both Bouchard and Kvitova have had terrible results since their Wimbledon final. They are playing New Haven this week in an attempt to find some form ahead of the last GS of the year.

Kvitova will do well to get past Makarova in the next round. The Russian beat the dual Wimbledon champion recently in Montreal. Bouchard beat BoJo last night 6-1 6-1 in 52 minutes. She had lost their only previous encounter at Edgbaston in 2013. Does this mark a return to form for the Canadian? It needs to otherwise I can see her having no chance next week. Next up for the youngster is a match with Stosur, the Aussie having taken over 2.5 hours to get past Nara yesterday.

The interesting thing about the betting here is that Genie is 10/1. Roughly the same price as she is to win the US Open. Yet Serena and Sharapova are not here and Halep, the favourite, is in the other half of the draw. Kvitova is too short at 5/1. So I have had: 

2pts ew Genie Bouchard to win WTA New Haven @ 10/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Four points staked.

(Please note Betfred is showing 12/1 Bouchard on oddschecker - that's yesterday's price, the compiler is obviously still asleep!)

Sent from my iPad 

Sunday, 17 August 2014

US Open

One week to go to the final GS tournament. Of course we have the chance of a decent pick up on Murray if he fails to win the men's singles. The bets I placed on Christmas Day are looking very promising (who else gets bored on Christmas Day?!). He has not reached a final in any tournament this year so the bets could yield a decent profit. Here's a reminder of them:

I'm not going to hedge on Murray @ 9/2 for the US Open. I'll just let the various bets run. 

It's possible that Murray might not make the O2 end of season tournament as he is not currently ranked in the top eight. He might be showing up as a reserve. 

As for who is going to win the men's singles, there could be an upset. The warm favourite Djoko was unexpectedly beaten in the lead up tournaments by Tsonga and Robredo. Nadal is a possible non-runner, deciding in the next 48 hours whether he will participate. Murray is not playing well. Federer is though. I have added him to my portfolio today:

3pts Federer to win men's US Open singles @ 6/1 Coral

That means I have three players against the field with bets already placed on Raonic (80/1) and Dimitrov (40/1). 

The ladies' portfolio consists of Bouchard (10/1), Kvitova (20/1) and Venus Williams (100/1).

Good luck if you are involved. 

Sent from my iPad 

Saturday, 16 August 2014

Great St Wilfred Handicap

Having looked at the race last night I thought Majestic Moon looked the best of RA Fahey's four contenders. Disappointed to learn it's a Pricewise selection which means the price has contracted. Was hoping for 16/1 but 14/1 with Coral will suffice with first five ew betting available. Only Coral and Bet365 are offering first five. I've had:

15:30R 1.5pts ew Majestic Moon @ 14/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

(Plus win stake - up to £25 - is returned as a free bet if second beaten a head or less!)

Three points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Jockeys' Championship

Richard Hughes has told everyone he is going to challenge for the championship despite being 15 winners behind RL Moore. Doesn't mean he can get there but the commitment is significant. His declaration may also have a (negative) influence on RLM. 

The markets have not moved much since Hughsie's declaration and 5/2 represents a reasonable  price for him to achieve his objective. This is the current price offered by Coral, Paddy Power and Bet365. I have had:

8pts Richard Hughes to be 2014 champion jockey @ 5/2 Coral

Sent from my iPad