Tuesday, 3 May 2016

Leicester




Many of you have heard about my (small) bets on Leicester to win the Premier League. Word gets around. Here are some answers to questions that have been asked.

Why did you back Leicester, are you a supporter?

I have never supported a particular football team. I have never spoken about a team as a fan would. So, for instance, I have never used the word 'we' when referring to a team. I think part of the reason for this is that I was brought up in a county that does not have a top flight team: Devon. Plus I was hopeless at football at school.

This position does have its advantages though as it means I am totally unbiased when having a football bet.

At the time of my Leicester bets there seemed to be doubts developing about the consistency of Arsenal, Man U, Man City and Chelsea. I also backed Liverpool for the Premiership in November. .

Why were your Leicester bets not advised on your blog? 

For reasons given elsewhere the betting blog closed on 1st November 2015. My Leicester bets were placed on 8th/23rd November. In any event only a small percentage of my bets appeared on the blog. I tried to recommend what I thought were the the best of my daily wagers on the blog and to a large extent this policy was successful. The blog achieved 20% profit over six years. My long term % profit is just under 9%.

Why were the bets so small - I thought you were a big punter?

Well I've never been a really big punter. I've never bet in thousands (bookmakers would certainly not allow it!) but these bets were particularly tiny. However each of the bets represents the maximum stake these bookmakers would allow me at the time. Actually the win liability (the same for each bet) is about 15 times what these firms would normally lay me on an early-price horse racing single. (My most profitable medium).

Would you have had bigger bets if allowed by these firms?

The answer is of course yes. But you have to remember that this is the case with more than 95% of all bets I place with bookmakers at prices. That's the way it is these days with restricted accounts and you just have to live with it or not bet at all.

Even though this is not a particularly big win it's strangely satisfying to feel part of what (for once) has been a very interesting Premier League season. Here are the winning wagers:



Great fun: 150/1 and 500/1 











Thursday, 21 April 2016

Disturbed

This video has been watched 38 million times in just over four months. Which could mean you've already seen it. If you haven't you're in for a treat. Even Paul Simon likes it:


Tuesday, 29 March 2016

Being Irish

This is what it feels like to be Irish at this time. I'm only half-Irish. But it has always felt like the bigger half. My father was from Blackrock. His godfather was Michael Collins. Yes, really.

This is a real choker:


Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Time running out



"And the high ideals and the promise
You once dressed the future in
Are dancing in the embers with the wind"








Monday, 22 February 2016

Rock and baroque

You may have heard that Jimi Hendrix's flat - where he lived during '68 and '69 - has been restored and is now open to the public. It's well worth a visit if you are in central London. What's more you can visit Handel's former residence next door on the same ticket. Here's Jimi sitting in his bedroom and then me sitting in the same place nearly 50 years later...






Visiting details can be found on this link: Handel and Hendrix



Sunday, 31 January 2016

Trumped up

"Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come." - Haruki Murakami 

The election of POTUS gets properly underway tomorrow with the Iowa caucus. The last meaningful poll for this Republican caucus showed Trump in the lead on 28% (+6) with Cruz next on 23% (-2). The bookmakers generally bet 4/9 the Toupee, 7/4 Cruz, 10/1 bar.

For the Republican nomination Trump is now odds on with some firms.

If you took some 20/1 Trump for the nomination, as suggested on this blog last July, you are in a good position as you can lay him for a few quid at around 2.08 on betfair as I write. You will have to decide whether to do that or not. Betting recommendations on the blog closed on 1st November 2015 as you know! It's a timely point at which to consider your position though with everything kicking off tomorrow.