Sunday, 29 March 2015

Irish Lincoln

Having been on the plunge horse yesterday in the Lincoln (16/1>9/1, tailed off), I'm trying again today in the Irish equivalent. There has been heavy overnight rain at the Curragh and the ground has turned soft to heavy. I've backed a couple of easy ground performers to small stakes with a very small bookmaker:

16:55C 1pt EW Bold Thady Quill @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG
16:55C 0.5pts EW Aussie Valentine @ 33/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

Three points staked

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Game changer?

Following Thursday's TV debate, the first poll shows Labour taking a 4-point lead over the Tories. This is significant I think and it provides the headline in today's Sunday Times. The poll was compiled by the much respected YouGov. I watched the debate and didn't think Miliband did particularly well. The consensus is therefore that Cameron performed worse and the margin of the poll could provide momentum for Labour as the campaigns really get underway. I've played the most seats market/majority as follows:

8pts Labour to win most seats in 2015 General Election @ 15/8 Coral

(Boyles are 2/1 but it will be for very small stakes I expect. Paddy Power and SJ also offer 15/8 but I anticipate the price to go in next hour - 6/4 shot perhaps later today?)

2pts Labour overall majority in 2015 General Election @ 16/1 Betfred

(Available several firms)

Ten points staked

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Saturday, 28 March 2015

The Lincoln

Forty years ago today (yes 40!) I backed the winner of the Lincoln at 100/1. Southwark Star was returned at 33s and won easily. Three or four of us were on and incredibly our success made the local paper! Since then the race has always been a favourite despite not backing a huge amount of Lincoln winners.

The big discussion is the draw and which side will be favoured. In fact it is usually one side or the other that prevails as they don't often win down the middle. The general consensus seems to be low draw is best in the soft (last two years trap three has won on soft ground) and high draw on good ground. It's good, good to soft in places at the moment and rain is not expected. Could therefore dry out to good all round by the time of the race. Despite this I've backed a low drawn runner for a couple of reasons. Firstly he's had a very good preparation with three warm up races in Meydan. The first of these was a win over today's trip and that was followed by two fair efforts over an unsuitable 10f (he's never won beyond a mile). 

The second factor is the eye-catching booking of Pat Smullen who has not ridden him previously. Pat was toiling away (two winners) at dreary Dundalk last night so I guess he must be flying over this morning for the ride. The selection can be a bit tardy at the start so I'm looking for Pat to sort that out. Anyway just a small interest as follows:

 15:45D 1pt EW Belgian Bill @ 16/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

Note SKYBET is one of few bookmakers offering five places EW betting.


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Thursday, 26 March 2015

Chelmsford City

Have opposed the market leaders in the 6f sprint tomorrow at the Essex venue. A bit speculative but this is how I have played it:

19:15C 2pts win Bertie Blu Boy @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
19:15C 1pt win Amenable @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Three points staked.

Wednesday, 25 March 2015

Next Tory leader

Long time followers will know that I have backed Theresa May at 20/1 (in 2011) and again at 12/1 (in 2013) to be next Tory leader. She is currently second favourite at a best priced 9/2. Cameron speculated yesterday that there might be three candidates to replace him: Boris, Theresa and George. Boris is favourite in this market and too short for me to get involved. So I've had a couple of quid on George as follows:

2pts George Osborne to be next Tory party leader @ 12/1 Boylesports 







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Sunday, 22 March 2015

Some respite

Ireland land the Six Nations on a roller coaster day. We certainly didn't have the value. Ireland was available at odds over 8.0 during the Wales match. In fact Wales traded as low as 1.22 for the championship in-running. I never thought they would be contenders on Saturday so I was completely wrong there as they racked up 61 points in Rome.

It was nice to at least get a winner on the board after a frustrating Cheltenham. Seeing Wicklow Brave trot up @ 25/1 having been on the gamble at Sandown when he missed the break didn't help. The final nail in the coffin was Ireland coming up one short in the Prestbury Cup with 13 rather than 14 winners. Of course in the fantasy world I live in the missing Irish-trained winner was Champagne Fever (NR) in the QMCC!

Elsewhere my two selections, Juventus (28/1) and Athletico Madrid (16/1), are through to the last eight of the Champions' League. AM face RM and must have a chance as they have a reasonable record in the H2H. Juve have shortened in the market to 8/1 after their apparently good draw against outsiders Monaco.

Harry Kane's hat trick at WHL propelled him to the top of the Prem League scorer chart with 19 goals ahead of Costa (18) and Aguero (17). How the latter didn't score against 10-man W Brom I don't know. MC had 43 shots in the match! Costa could catch Kane at the top today of course but I'm hopeful of my 16/1 EW wager on Kane as he's now best price 6/4.



Saturday, 21 March 2015

Playing with the tiddlers

Online bookmaker 666bet have had their operating licence suspended while the Gambling Commission undertake a review into the company.

You've probably seen their TV adverts featuring Harry Redknapp, Nicky Henderson and, if you are very observant, Statto (Angus Loughran).

My advice if you have money with them would be to withdraw it now just in case...

I find it very hard to get a decent bet these days - William Hill being the latest who have effectively closed my account -  but I have decided not to open accounts with the smaller firms like Betway, Winner, Betbright and Titan etc. These firms maybe OK. But then again they may not be...

I'd rather go without a bet.

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