Saturday, 13 December 2014

X-factor portfolio

Extraordinary developments in the outright market. Blogged a bet on Ben yesterday afternoon @ 11/4 (as I started to see weakness in the Fleur price) and as I write now he is no bigger than 8/11 with the bookmakers. At least the plunge was not immediate and the advised price was available for significantly more than 12 hours after posting. 

Yesterday's stake means that the total invested on this event is 11 points (including five points on two acts who are now sitting at home). The other six points staked and the potential outcomes are as follows:

Fleur: 1pt win 14/1
          1pt top over 5/2
          Potential return = 18.5, potential event win: 7.5pts

Ben: 1.5pts win 9/2 
         2pts win 11/4 
         Potential return = 15.75, potential event win: 4.75pts

Andrea: 0.5pts win 25.0 (23.8 after commission)
             Potential return = 11.9, potential event win: 0.9pts 

So that's all eventualities covered. Obviously I'm still hoping for a Fleur win. Hope you managed to 'green-up' your x-factor book. 
          

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Friday, 12 December 2014

X-factor news

The market has moved quite strongly against Fleur today. I have taken evasive action by backing Ben @ 11/4. I think this is going to be a lot closer than I anticipated yesterday. I can only think that song choices and/or rehearsals have not gone brilliantly for her. I have had:

2pts Ben Haenow to win x-factor @ 11/4 Betfred

I took the above price with WH which seemed to initiate a change to 5/2 moments later. The 11/4 is also available with PP and Ladbrokes as I write. At least the above bet now guarantees a small profit whatever the outcome and I'm happy with that...

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Thursday, 11 December 2014

Miss World

Continuing the 'specials' theme, I've had a small bet on what is now a very minor event:

1.5pts Miss India (Koyal Rana) to win Miss World @ 8/1 Betfred





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Good value losers?

The two selections in the 19:40 Dundalk yesterday were heavily backed. Cottrell was punted from 5/1 to 5/2f and finished a disappointing fourth. The other choice, Iontas, was 9/2 at the off from 16/1 taken! It finished last. 

The problem with beating the market by such huge margins - and not collecting - is that bookmakers hate you beating SP. They think you know more than they do and will heavily restrict your accounts, or worse still close them even if you are a loser on balance. 

Long-term readers of my blog/website will be aware that I "know" nothing! I never take any notice of owner/trainer/jockey comments or "information" of any kind and my selections are made solely on my analysis of the race in question. 

Turning to this weekend's x-factor final, we are in a strong position with 14/1 poke Fleur now the 4/11 favourite to win. The second favourite, Ben, we have @ 9/2 for a zero loss position. The other runner, Andrea, was the reason I got involved in the first place. He was 6/4 favourite when there were 14 runners and I suggested the first wagers. Now he's showing at 27 on betfair. I told a blog reader a couple of days ago (when the Italian was 18) I wasn't going to cover my bets as I'd always been of the firm opinion that he can't win. However, for the sake of a half-point I have had the following:

0.5pt Andrea to win x-factor @ 25.0 Betfair 

(Although 27 is showing as I write there is very little liquidity so I have booked the bet @ 25.0)

Hopefully the favourite will oblige for around nine points profit on the event. 

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Wednesday, 10 December 2014

Dundalk

A rare horse racing bet today. I thought Cottrell ran a great race last time out from a poor draw just getting caught (beaten a short-head) on the line. Deserves another chance tonight:

19:40D 2pts win Cottrell @ 5/1 Coral BOG
19:40D 0.5 pts ew Iontas @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total three points invested.

Forgot to say yesterday that Boylesports were "offering" 33/1 A-Rad for the Australian Open. After they laid me a maximum bet of 39p ew I didn't think it was worth mentioning although the price is still there this morning - presumably to micro stakes.




Tuesday, 9 December 2014

A-Rad



Significant news that Navratilova is going to join Agnieszka Radwanska's coaching team. We have seen improvement in the men's game when high-profile ex-champions have linked up with top twenty players. I am thinking more Goran/Cilic and Chang/Nishikori than Mauresmo/Murray.

I've been very impressed listening to Navratilova's analysis of the game when she has appeared on BT Sport. Hence I have played a couple of speculative bets on the Pole this morning. Of course A-Rad's best Grand Slam result to date was reaching the 2012 Wimbledon final (for which incidentally we backed her ew @ 100/1). However I am hoping for an upturn in form before Wimbledon either in the Australian Open or the French Open. She is scheduled to play two full tournaments Down Under before the first Grand Slam of 2015.

I have had:

1.5pts ew A Radwanska to win Australian Open @ 28/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts ew A Radwanska to win French Open @ 33/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total six points.
Agnieszka Radwanska shows her flexibility during her victory






Thursday, 4 December 2014

Soup kitchen

Limited betting activity at present so here is a bit of value for a cheap lunch for two! 

How about a 700 gram carton of soup for 17p? Here's how:

First go to Covent Garden Soup website and print a £1 off voucher: 


Then go to Tesco where you will find several CG soups on sale at half-price. That is £1.17 rather than £2.34. Make your choice and present your coupon at the checkout. These three varieties were half-price in my Tesco:

Incidentally Morrison are selling some of these CG soups for £1 which in theory means the soup is free with a voucher. However I do not have a Morrison near me so cannot confirm this. I do however have a Tesco and we had trap one, Tomato and Basil (17p), for lunch today!

This offer will not last forever. I would expect the vouchers to disappear in a day or two...


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