Sunday, 28 June 2015

Petra Kvitova

The champion has not had the greatest preparation coming into Wimbledon. Quite possibly this week's forecast heat-wave might negatively affect her performance in her opening two matches, depending on scheduling. She is even money favourite to win quarter four so I am taking her on as follows:

1.5pts A Radwanska to win fourth quarter, ladies' singles @ 5/1 Paddy Power
1pt M Keys to win fourth quarter, ladies' singles @ 12/1 Boylesports 

Total 2.5 points staked.

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One-two at the Curragh

Here's what Sporting Life said about my second choice, the Chelmsford specialist Foxy Forever: 

"Three of the last four winners have been trained in the UK but Desert Law, who beat Monsieur Joe in the Epsom Dash, has a high draw to contend with. Foxy Forever has an even worse berth and will do very well to get into contention...................."

Someone at the Life looking at the draw before it was switched?

A shame it was only returned at 20/1. Betfair SP was 35/1 so hopefully some of you may have played that.

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The Curragh

This could be a mistake. Playing the highly competitive 24-runner Rockingham Handicap and taking on the two Pricewise picks as follows: 

17:00C 1.5pts win Discussiontofollow @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
17:00C 0.5pts ew Foxy Forever @ 20/1 Skybet BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Total 2.5 points. 

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Saturday, 27 June 2015

Wimbledon quarter betting

Difficult to identify any value ew bets in the men's competition. With Murray and Djoko kept apart in the draw a lot of pundits are already anticipating that this will be the final. It may well be the case but the odds on either of these two winning are prohibitively short. Djoko opens against Kohly a horrible draw for the champion who has not had a competitive match on grass in the lead up. Kohly, who almost beat Federer in Halle, plays well on the surface and has had four matches. On betfair it's 17.0 Kohly winning the encounter which seems a huge price to me.

As for Murray, the number ten seed has dropped into his quarter. We therefore have the prospect of yet another Murray-Nadal clash. Murray easily beat Nadal in the Madrid final last time they met but the overall H2H is 15-6 in the Spaniard's favour. What about meetings on grass? Well they've met three times at Wimbledon ('08, '10 and '11) and Murray has only won a single set. So 4/6 Murray to win the third quarter or 5/1 Nadal?: 

2pts Nadal to win the third quarter men's singles @ 5/1 Betfred

I'm giving Cilic one more chance. He's 16/1 to win the Djoko quarter:

1pt Cilic to win the first quarter men's singles @ 16/1 Betfred

As for the ladies, just a couple of small wagers on the Swiss players as follows: 

1.5pts Bencic to win the first quarter ladies' singles @ 16/1 Coral

1pt Bacsinsky to win the third quarter ladies' singles @ 18/1 Betfred

Total staked 5.5 points. 

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As I was saying the other day, but not backing it up at Eastbourne, Bencic is no mug! 

Has a horrible draw at Wimbledon but worth a small bet @ 66/1 while it lasts:

0.75pts ew Belinda Bencic to win ladies' singles @ 66/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Also available Boyles, Skybet and bigger with firms I wouldn't deal with!

Big improver, won junior Wimbledon, plenty more to come given only 18....

1.5pts staked.

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Friday, 26 June 2015


Not been well enough to have many bets or indeed post them on the blog. If it's any consolation had I posted any bets in the last week or so and you had followed me in you probably would have not done any good.

I've had a look through the draws announced today and have placed only one wager so far:

3pts ew A Radwanska to win ladies' singles @ 33/1 Boylesports (1/2 odds 1,2)

(33/1 also available with Ladbrokes and betfair sportsbook)

Price will shorten if she beats Bencic in the Eastbourne final tomorrow.

Six points staked.

May have another bet or two tomorrow.

Friday, 19 June 2015

Saturday racing

I've played a couple in the Wokingham and this is the only race I plan to be involved in tomorrow. I was annoyed to see I'd been Pricewised on one of the selections which has subsequently reduced the price on offer at the moment. It's amazing how bookies continue to react so quickly to these selections. It was not that long ago that PW had 50 consecutive losers. Currently, in his last 100 or so advices, he has had just five winners. Unless you've backed all of those at an average 20/1 you are losing as a level stakes player. 

But you'd be losing if you've been following my recent advices too. It's a tricky old game isn't it? 

Anyway this is how I've bet: 

17:00RA 2pts win 1pt place Watchable @ 14/1* Will Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 
17:00RA 1pt ew Dinkum Diamond @ 28/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Five points staked. 

*14/1 is no longer available as I write. This price should be available on Saturday @ 8:30 with Will Hill and 9:00 with Ladbrokes. If it's not, and it wins, I will book at a lower price.

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Tennis Birmingham

Lisicki looks back to her best. She put eight aces past previous tournament winner Rybarikova yesterday. But that was nothing compared to her previous match. Lisicki, who won this tournament in 2011, made a record breaking 27 aces against Bencic, who is no mug. 

Let's hope she can go well at Wimbledon. You'll recall she completely broke down in the final in 2013 against the unlikeable Bartoli.

2.5pts ew Lisicki to win Aegon Classic @ 9/2 Betfred (1/3 odds 1/2)

1.5pts ew Lisicki to win Wimbledon @ 20/1 Paddy Power NRNB (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total eight points.

No horse race bets today. Maybe tomorrow. Good luck if you're still involved.

                                                      Sabine Lisicki holds the world record for the fastest serve of all time.

Thursday, 18 June 2015

Royal Ascot day three

Two small bets:

17:00RA 1pt ew Hail The Hero @ 40/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)
17:00RA 1pt ew Bow And Arrow @ 33/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked.

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Many thanks for the comments from readers (on last post). They are much appreciated.

There is a value option in the ew market at the moment. Betfred/Totesport are offering 1/2 odds 1,2 whereas every other firm is 1/3 odds 1,2. The bottom half of the draw is weakened by the absence of both Nadal and Wawrinka. The four remaining players are in the quarter- final and therefore require just two wins to reach the final. The top half still has eight players including odds-on Murray.

I have backed three of the four in the lower half as follows:

3pts ew Raonic @ 5/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)
2pts ew Anderson @ 10/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)
1pt ew Simon @ 16/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

12pts staked.

Hopefully G-Lopez will lose to Anderson. If he doesn't he has a combined 0-7 H2H record against the two in the third quarter. There is no value if the Fred place terms are changed to 1/3 odds.

Raonic means -1.5 pts losing finalist, Anderson level and Simon -3pts. Obviously if one of the three wins the tourney it's a very different story.

Small Ascot bets to follow.

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Tuesday, 16 June 2015

Royal Ascot day two

Terrible results today, particularly Nadal going out so early at Queen's. Maybe it's time to take stock.  Have been running the blog for over five years now and it's currently showing a profit close to 1,500 points in that time. However you know what Leonard Cohen sang:

"The ponies run, the girls are young, the odds are there to beat. You win a while, and then it's done - your little winning streak". 

I've not operated a full horse racing service this year as it would prove too time consuming. Instead I've tried to pick out the best race (or two) when I'm keen on a particular meeting. With mixed results. For now I'll carry on with Royal Ascot but if this proves unprofitable I may well throw in the towel...

Royal Hunt Cup tomorrow. Last year there I had one selection in the race - Field Of Dream - and it won at 20/1 having backed it at @ 28/1. It's only run once since that victory and I can see it running a big race again tomorrow. Horses returning to Ascot (following a win) often go well. The best horse in the race though (which unfortunately Pricewise told everyone earlier this evening) is Ayaar the favourite at around 10 or 11/1. You might get 12/1 tomorrow when bookmakers revert to their original prices. I've had my bets at the prices available now though: 

17:00RA 5pts win 2pts place Ayaar @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)
17:00RA 1pt ew Field Of Dream @ 20/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

6 x 0.5pts combination SP forecast above two with Bronze Angel (3pts) 

Total 12 points. 

Watch PP prices in the morning in case they go 20/1 FOD. They are the only bookmaker offering six places ew. They may go bigger than 10/1 Ayaar too.

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Monday, 15 June 2015

Royal Ascot

I'll be having one or two bets most days at Royal Ascot and will be happy to share them on my blog. First bet I've had is in the last tomorrow:

17:35RA 1.5pts ew Roll On Rory @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

 Dettori takes the ride. PP one of a couple of bookmakers offering four places ew betting.

Three points staked.

Sunday, 14 June 2015

Wimbledon warm-up tournaments

Three tournaments start on the grass tomorrow: Queen's, Halle (men) and Birmingham (women). 

The women's tournament has a high quality field. I think Halep has a good draw and I was interested in Fred's 10/1 quote. Unfortunately that changed to 13/2 as I was looking at it! Stan is offering 10/1 but I've been closed by that outfit so I've decided to swerve the women altogether.

The Fed, multiple winner of Halle, is favourite again. I can't find a bet there either so I'm concentrating on Queen's. Mugray is of course favourite and has won the tourney three times in recent years. Can't get involved at under 2/1 though. I had a small bet months ago on Cilic to win Wimbledon at about half the price that's available today. That's because he's not done terribly well since winning the U.S. open. He's played well at Queen's in the past though and is worth a small ew bet despite being in the favourite's half of the draw. If he can win three matches he could face Mugray in the semi-final.

In the lower half of the draw I've gone with Nadal who looked sharp this week and took the Stuttgart title today. My bets are:

3pts ew Nadal to win Queen's @ 7/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1pt ew Cilic to win Queen's @ 14/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Eight points staked.

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Friday, 12 June 2015


Just having one bet on today's racing: Brave Echo in the first at Goodwood. A front runner who won this race in 2014 and was second the year before using these tactics. The only problem I can see with him, like with many of us, is his age:

18:00G 3pts win Brave Echo @ 9/2 Paddy Power BOG

Looking forward to Royal Ascot next week. May have an ante-post bet or two later. 

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Wednesday, 10 June 2015


Couple of fancied runners in the sprints at the Yorkshire track as follows:

14:30B 2.5pts win Chocamoco @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG

15:00B 2.5pts win Cadeaux Pearl @ 9/2 Bet365 BOG

One point win double at the above odds.

Six points staked.

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Tuesday, 9 June 2015


Played a couple of small wagers as follows:

15:25S 1.5pts win The Wispe @ 7/1 Will Hill BOG
17:25S 1.5pts win Oasis Spirit @ 8/1 Will Hill BOG

0.5pts ew double the above at WH prices.

Four points staked.

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Sunday, 7 June 2015

Sunday racing

The last time I had a bet in a Veterans' Handicap race at Goodwood Divine Call won at a big price. There is another such race at the Sussex venue today this time over 5f rather than 6f. Can't see a huge price winner but there are a couple of runners which interest me. The first is Dishy Guru. This won an extraordinary race at Leicester LTO. Very slowly away, at one stage it was eight lengths off the pace. He eventually won comfortably by a couple of lengths. You'd have to think if he doesn't miss the break he has to have a huge chance of following up. 

The other one I like in the race is Angelito who was beaten just over a length in the Divine Call race. He may do better here with the drop back to 5f. He has never won beyond the minimum trip. 

15:30G 1.5pts win Dishy Guru @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:30G 2pts win Angelito @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

You might get a better price Dishy Guru on betfair (but not BOG obviously)

Total 3.5 points staked.

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Friday, 5 June 2015

Saturday racing

No good today but at least I backed a non-runner so 1.5pts returned there! On reflection not particularly keen on the Lingfield card tomorrow so I thought I'd take a look at the 20-runner Epsom dash (15:45) instead. Nice easy race! Earlier I decided to have a bet on Barnet Fair but as it was shortly after 20:00 I quickly realised I'd been Pricewised! Best price as I write is only 11/1 but most bookmakers should revert to their original prices in the morning for a short window of opportunity. A few firms, including William Hill, were going 14/1 so I'm going to take that at 8:30 with WH if it's available. My bets will be:

15:45E 2pts win Barnet Fair @ 14/1* William Hill BOG 
15:45E 1pt ew Silvanus @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

As I write, bet365, skybet, PP and Ladbrokes are all offering ew betting first five places which is a concession worth considering particularly if the firm is best price/equal best price. 

* 14/1 will only be booked if available/backed with WH at 8:30 Saturday. If not available will be booked at 12/1 which should generally be on offer around 9am. Good luck trying to get on if you decide to play.

Later on Saturday we have an interest in the football with 28/1 Juventus in action. Well it might be interesting for about 20 minutes before Messi scores! 

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Strange market pricing with my Kempton loser yesterday. Before recommending a bet at 11/1 I took that price with skybet for the maximum they would lay me. This was £4.55 ew. I don't know why I bother. Yes, I do know why: I like to see their market move as it nearly always does immediately when I have a bet with them even with a stake as low as four quid. Sure enough within seconds they were 8/1 (10/1 in five places, 11/1 Boyles still available at the time).

Later, Will Hill went 22/1 when most other bookmakers were no more than 12/1. This was obviously a mistake or alternatively the selection had no chance of winning. Unfortunately the latter proved the case and I was amazed to see it opening at 8/1 on track. Never in contention. 

Elsewhere I thought Indian Giver was a shade unlucky as was hampered several times in the straight. Went off 13/2 so early price taking at least was justified. Today I've played one race at Goodwood. Got my usual pence on the second choice at 10/1 skybet yesterday but have also played elsewhere:

19:50G 3pts win Escrick @ 9/2 Betfred BOG
19:50G 0.75pts ew Feeling Easy @ 9/1 Betfred BOG

Total 4.5 points.

Possible bet at Lingfield tomorrow.


Wednesday, 3 June 2015

Thursday horses

A couple of races tomorrow have caught my eye:

15:30H 1pt win Brooke's Bounty @ 11/1 William Hill BOG
15:30H 1pt win Indian Giver @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

19:20K 1.5pts ew Sir Henry Raeburn @ 11/1 Boylesports BOG (10/1 with five firms if you can't get the Boyles price)

Total staked five points.

Got a few points back with Timea Bacsinszky reaching the semi-final. I just didn't fancy Kvitova to make the last four - poorly exploited by me though.