Thursday, 30 January 2014

Davis Cup

The Davis Cup starts early tomorrow and Switzerland are now the favourites, not surprisingly perhaps as Federer has made a late decision to play in the first round alongside Stan. They are 3/1 at best.

I like the look of France in the other side of the draw. They have strength in depth and could conceivably make a run to the final. Significantly Tote/Betfred are the only companies offering 1/2 odds to reach the final rather than 1/3. Totesport also have the best price about France as I write @ 9/2. I have had:

2pts ew France to win Davis Cup @ 9/2 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

In the bottom half I have had an interest in Italy at 33/1 who could meet Switzerland in the semi-final if they progress that far:

0.75pts ew Italy to win Davis Cup @ 33/1 Betfred (or Totesport) (1/2 odds 1,2)

Andy Murray is playing in the GB v USA tie but the Americans are expected to go through if Isner has recovered from his ankle injury.

Total 5.5 points staked

Wednesday, 29 January 2014

French Open: ladies' singles

I have already had one bet on this event - Australian Open champion Li Na @ 10/1. The Chinese is still available at this price with William Hill.

The second bet I have had is on the 19-year-old Canadian who played so well at the Aus Open, going down 6-2 6-4 in the semi-final to the eventual champion. Eugenie Bouchard is now up to 19 in the world having been ranked 137 one year ago. Genie followed up a win over Ivanovic at Wimbledon with a three-set victory over the Serb in the Aus quarter-final, the latter having shown a return to form in beating Serena in the last 16. I have had:

0.75pts ew Eugenie Bouchard @ 66/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Total 1.5 points staked.

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Sunday, 26 January 2014

AO wrap

A good tournament for the blog thanks to Stan obliging @ 50/1 to land my small each-way investment at this rewarding price.

The stakes and returns on the event were as follows:

Outright bets (inc. quarter winners): stakes 10pts, returns 38.5pts

Match bets: stakes 13pts, returns 12.52pts 

Totals: stakes 23pts, returns 51.02pts, profit 28.02pts

2014/accumulative update:

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Saturday, 25 January 2014

Li Na

Congratulations to Li Na, who I have been on many times recently to my cost but unfortunately not on this occasion as I didn't like the look of her draw at the outset!

As a former French Open winner, however, I am happy to get involved at double figures with Fred. She can only have gained additional confidence from today's win. I have had:

4pts Li Na to win French Open @ 10/1 Betfred  (also VC and SJ)

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Thursday, 23 January 2014

AO continued

No joy in the ladies' outright market. In retrospect my two selections - Sharapova (11/1) and Halep (50/1) - were somewhat unfortunate to come up against an on-fire Cibulkova.

As Halep put it so succinctly yesterday:

"Today I couldn't enjoy, and it was a big shit for me, this match"

Maybe Berdych can provide a decent return for the blog as the preferred result in the semi with Wawrinka later this morning? You'd have to think Stan might be a little fatigued following his epic defeat of Djoko. The relatively fast court and 'quick' balls could continue to be to the Czech's liking.

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Tuesday, 21 January 2014

No one beats fat Stan 15 times in a row!

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I was moaning about Sharapova (not really surprisingly) exiting the tournament. That was followed by a four-point loss on Muguruza's match with A-Rad.

And now - this morning - Stan beats Djoko who had won their previous 14 encounters. But consider this. Djoko, serving to stay in the match at 7-8 30-30, serves and volleys the next two points. Both volleys go out. Match over. Anything to do with a certain German celebrity coach?

The Stan result means - with Berdych having overcome Ferrer - that we will definitely show at least a small profit on the tournament. We have a men's finalist as Stan (50/1 ew) plays Tomas (66/1 ew) in the semi. Stan will probably start marginal favourite, however he was cramping up towards the end of his five-set win so we have a chance of the higher return with the Czech.

Two other bets are still running: 50/1 ew Halep placed in October 2013 - although you could have secured this price last week. And of course the sets bet on the Murray-Federer match taking place tomorrow morning. I'm considering these bets free hits now as the hard work has been done. By Stan of course not by me on the sofa!

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Monday, 20 January 2014

Federer v Murray

Tennis not going well  with Sharapova losing last night. Potentially we have two small bites of the cherry with Stan now playing Djoko and if Stan loses and Berdych gets past Ferrer, the Czech would have a chance of beating the holder.

Don't fancy much else, however Federer looked impressive against Tsonga this morning so have had a bet on the Swiss beating Mugray comfortably:

2pts Federer to beat Murray 3-0 in sets @ 9/2 Betfred (5/1 Stan James if you can trade there)

Saturday, 18 January 2014


Garbine is into the last 16 with three set win over Wozniacki. Plays Radwanska next for which a couple of firms have priced her @ 2/1. Pole has not been at her best so I am happy to take that price:

4pts Muguruza to beat Radwanska @ 2/1 Skybet

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Friday, 17 January 2014

Tennis tonight

I have had a couple of small bets on betfair on two of tonight's matches. Firstly I have to stick with Muguruza against Wozniacki. Initially the market could not separate them but as I write the Spaniard can be backed @ 2.12 on the machine. She won the only previous encounter with the Dane so I have to side with her as she is not favourite right now:

2pts Muguruza to beat Wozniacki @ 2.12 Betfair

The other bet I have had is for Murray to lose to Lopez. Although the latter has never beaten Murray, this is the first real test for the Scot here and he looked unimpressive at times against the qualifier ranked 270 in his last match. Lopez will not be Judy Murray's favourite tennis player if he wins tonight! I have had:

1pt Lopez to beat Murray @ 7.6 Betfair 

Odds shown are pre-commission and will be adjusted accordingly should either of the wagers oblige.

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Thursday, 16 January 2014

Willie The Gambler

"Come around you rovin' gamblers and a story I will tell
About the greatest gambler, you all should know him well
His name was Will O'Conley and he gambled all his life
He had twenty-seven children, yet he never had a wife
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
He gambled in the White House and in the railroad yards
Wherever there was people, there was Willie and his cards
He had the reputation as the gamblin'est man around
Wives would keep their husbands home when Willie came to town
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
Sailin' down the Mississippi to a town called New Orleans
They're still talkin' about their card game on that Jackson River Queen
"I've come to win some money," Gamblin' Willie says
When the game finally ended up, the whole damn boat was his
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
Up in the Rocky Mountains in a town called Cripple Creek
There was an all-night poker game, lasted about a week
Nine hundred miners had laid their money down
When Willie finally left the room, he owned the whole damn town
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
But Willie had a heart of gold and this I know is true
He supported all his children and all their mothers too
He wore no rings or fancy things, like other gamblers wore
He spread his money far and wide, to help the sick and the poor
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
When you played your cards with Willie, you never really knew
Whether he was bluffin' or whether he was true
He won a fortune from a man who folded in his chair
The man, he left a diamond flush, Willie didn't even have a pair
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
It was late one evenin' during a poker game
A man lost all his money, he said Willie was to blame
He shot poor Willie through the head, which was a tragic fate
When Willie's cards fell on the floor, they were aces backed with eights
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows
So all you rovin' gamblers, wherever you might be
The moral of the story is very plain to see
Make your money while you can, before you have to stop
For when you pull that dead man's hand, your gamblin' days are up
And it's ride, Willie, ride
Roll, Willie, roll
Wherever you are a-gamblin' now, nobody really knows"

Read more:

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Sunday, 12 January 2014

AO tennis - further bets

A couple more bets before the tournament gets underway at midnight, although the first bet relates to a ladies' match scheduled for Tuesday:

4pts Muguruza to beat Kanepi @ 11/10 Paddy Power

In the men's tournament I am taking on Mugray in the tricky second quarter. This section also features Federer and Tsonga but I have had a small bet on the big serving John Isner who is in good form. These big serving players don't win grand slams (basically because they don't break serve frequently enough). However most observers are saying that the courts will play much faster this year which will suit the American giant. He is 10/1 in a place but 25/1 with Betfred:

1pt John Isner to win men's second quarter @ 25/1 Betfred

Good luck 

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Saturday, 11 January 2014


No mug this young lady. Has won Hobart overnight beating Zakopalova 6-4 6-0. Like Pironkova she has come through qualifying to win the tournament. Unlike the Bulgarian however she has not beaten any top ten players as this was a much lower grade tournament than Sydney. Nevertheless you can only beat what is put in front of you and she has not dropped a set all week. Flipkins was her biggest scalp. 

She plays Kanepi (24 seed) in the first round of the AO which the bookmakers consider a coin toss. Yet Kanepi is 25/1 tops to win the fourth quarter, Garbine is 66/1. I have had:

1pt Garbine Muguruza to win 4th quarter ladies' AO singles @ 66/1 Paddy Power

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Friday, 10 January 2014

Price/ew terms alert

Please note that Paddy Power have changed their each-way terms on the ladies' tennis outright. They are now one of few bookmakers that offer 1/3 odds rather than the standard 1/2 odds to reach the final. So take a close look at the price comparison if backing each-way. They have also cut Sharapova from 11/1 to 10/1.

Skybet offers 11/1 (1/2 odds 1,2) Sharapova at the time of writing and would be the place to bet if you wanted to back the Russian each-way.

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Aus Open tennis

First of all a word on this morning's Sydney final. What a terrific win for the Bulgarian who is ranked 107. Takes out three top ten players in a row in straight sets. I admit I did it wrong on the price by taking 3/1. She was 7/2 moments after I posted and then drifted on betfair so that she was 5.5 when she hit the first ball in anger (starting the match with an ace).

On to the big one. 

The draws were made overnight and seem to have increased the chance of the favourites obliging. Djoko and SW are both now prohibitively priced around the 8/11 mark. When you have an odds-on shot this often throws up a value each-way bet in the other half of the draw. That would appear not to be the case in the men's event. Nadal, Delpo, Federer and Murray are all in the top half of the draw which hence looks impossible. Murray, for example (who lost to Hewitt in an exo this morning), would have to beat Federer, Nadal and Djoko - if the seedings held up -  to win the title.

I have taken a contrary view and just backed a couple of big priced players to small stakes in Djoko's half - who are capable of a big upset on their day:

0.5pts ew Wawrinka to win AO men's @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.75pts ew Berdych to win AO men's @ 66/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

In the women's event, the second and third favourites are in the other half to Serena. Vika is about half Sharapova's price. Yet their H2H is just 7-6 to Vika with Pova having won the last two encounters. I thought Pova played incredibly well when losing to SW last time. She hasn't beaten SW for ten years, but I still think she is the bet to reach the final ahead of Vika. Worth a small play I think:

2pts ew Sharapova to win AO  ladies' @ 11/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested 6.5 points.

Thursday, 9 January 2014

WTA Sydney Final

Pironkova has had an amazing run to reach the Sydney final. She has beaten Cirstea, Lepchenko, Errani and Kvitova all in straight sets. Her form immediately before this tournament was no good at all. So why the improvement? Possibly has a lot to do with the speed of the court. According to Delpo it's playing like a grass court. And we all know how good the Bulgarian is at Wimbledon, having recorded two wins over Venus Williams for example.

As for her opponent, Kerber, a tough customer for sure. But in their only meeting Pironkova beat the German 6-4 6-1 in Doha in 2012. So I have to give Pironkova more than a 25% chance of winning to take her first title. I have had:

2pts win Pironkova to beat Kerber @ 3/1 Bet365

Sunday, 5 January 2014

Ashes result

Good news overnight with the 5-0 result in Australia to start the year on a high. FA Cup a disappointment yesterday though with two of my four selections making an early exit.

Let's hope Everton and Southampton are kept apart in the draw later today, preferably with home draws!

Thursday, 2 January 2014

Qatar Open

Shocks in this tournament Wednesday with Nadal and Gulbis now the only two still standing amongst the eight seeded players.

Murray was one of the casualties of course, squandering a set and a 3-0 lead against the German Mayer.

The betting is quite interesting as Nadal and Gulbis meet in the quarterfinal Thursday.  Nadal  is 1/4 to get past the Latvian but didn't look particularly great when dropping a set against the German Kamke. Problem with Gulbis is his 0-6 HTH against Nadal  and the 7/2 for him to beat the world No.1 looks a little short despite Gulbis running Nadal close on occasions.

However Coral price Gulbis @ 14/1 to win the tournament. Should he beat Nadal he would be the highest ranked player left in the event. Gulbis would be big odds on to get past a German qualifier (ranked outside the top hundred) in the semi and, I believe, favourite against whoever he met in the final.

That's a pretty long winded explanation as to why I have had the following small interest!:

1pt Ernests Gulbis to win Qatar Open @ 14/1 Coral