Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Thursday races

Too many options at Chelmsford so going to swerve the all-weather and just play the sprints at Beverley tomorrow as follows: 

17:15B 2pts win 1pt place Thornaby Princess @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
17:15B 2pts win Robotic @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

17:50B 2.5pts win Lady Sioux @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG
17:50B 1.5pts win 1pt place Tinsill @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Above: 4 x 0.25pt win doubles Paddy Power prices (14/1 Tinsill)
            : 2x 0.25pt win doubles 17:15B selections with Lady Sioux (PP) 

Total 11.5 points. 

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Disappointing results at Nottingham. Small interests at Kempton: 

18:10K 1pt ew Polar Kite @ 18/1 W Hill BOG
18:10K 1pt ew Duke Of North @ 12/1 W Hill BOG

20:10K 1pt win Missy Blue Eyes @ 8/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked. 

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Wednesday horses

Four points profit yesterday thanks to Ustinov at Ayr. Nottingham today:

16:20N 1pt win Volunteer Point 13/2 Bet365
16:20N 1pt win Maraakib @ 8/1 Bet365 

16:50N 0.5pts ew Syrian  Pearl @ 12/1 Betfred
16:50N 3pts win Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 Bet365

17:20N 1pt ew Red Invader @ 12/1 Coral
17:20N 2pts win Indian Tinker @ 7/1 Coral 

Ten points staked. All BOG. 

Possibly a bet at Kempton. Published by 17:45 if that is the case.  

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Monday, 28 September 2015

Review/Tuesday racing

Very nearly a good day today when Top Cop almost hung on to win the finale at Bath (beaten a nose, favourite in the photo). But no damage done thanks to 9/4 (backed into 6/4) winner Treasury Notes in the Hamilton event earlier in the day.

There is an interesting 6f sprint at Ayr tomorrow. Two of the runners - Circuitous and Ancient Cross - we backed at 33/1 last time they won. That was way back in September 2013 when on successive days at Ayr they took the Bronze and Silver Cups respectively. I've not backed either horse since. So that's two good examples of why it's a bad idea to favour horses just because they've performed well for you in the past. Both have drawn blanks since those (fondly remembered) victories. Admittedly Ancient Cross ran very well LTO and could finally win again tomorrow. 

Ayr Festival was a disaster earlier this month so I'm reluctant to get too involved at the track tomorrow. I'm looking elsewhere for the 6f winner and have had small stakes as follows:

16:25A 1pt win Ustinov @ 5/1 Coral BOG 
16:25A 1pt win Pettochside @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked. 

Likely to be more involved on Wednesday. 

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Sunday, 27 September 2015

Monday racing

Things somewhat calmer on Monday after hectic trading on Saturday. At least the latter was profitable to the tune of 10.5 points. Two races of interest Monday: 

16:20H 2pts win Treasury Notes @ 9/4 Coral BOG
16:20H 0.5pts ew Silver Alliance @ 14/1 Coral BOG

17:40B 1.5pts win Top Cop @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG
17:40B 0.75pts ew Fossa @ 12/1 Coral BOG

No further horses tomorrow unless one of the above is a non-runner. 

Six points staked. 

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Saturday, 26 September 2015


Five points up on the day thanks to Clubland w 12/1 at Chester. Re-invested as follows:

17:45CC 1.5pts win Modello @ 4/1 Coral BOG
17:45CC 0.5pts ew Indigo @ 14/1 Boylesports BOG

18:45CC 1.5pts win Vimy Ridge @ 15/2 Betfred BOG
18:45CC 0.5pts ew Even Stevens @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Five points staked.

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Been waiting to see if there is a non-runner declared in the 14:40 race. Sixteen runners at the moment which is perfect for ew bets, so taking a chance as follows:

14:40R 1pt ew Bertie Blu Boy @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG
14:40R 1pt ew Ella's Delight @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

Plus a little top up forecast. Above two with Pensax Lad and Cliff 12 x 0.20p SP forecasts (Bet365) 

Total 6.4 points.

If I have any money left (!) I might have a couple of bets at Chelmsford. Will post around 17:00 if I do.


As follows:

14:30C 1.5pts win 1pt place Clubland @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
14:30C 1pt ew Whozthecat @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Furiant @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG
16:15C 1pt ew Nags Wag @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG
16:15C 1pt win Sixties Sioux @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

Nine points staked.

Some Ripon action around 11am.

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Friday, 25 September 2015

Saturday horses

One bet in the ridiculously difficult Cambridgeshire for now:

15:50N 1.5pts ew Halation @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Chester bets in the morning...

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Update - horses and football

Horse racing

Two frustrating days. Total of 13 selections. Just two winners and one place (w 6/1 (10p r4), w 5/2 (5p r4), p 28/1 (5p r4)). Plus two non-runners. Nevertheless marginal profit over the two days of about one point!

Is it worth it? A bit unfortunate yesterday as I was travelling for a fair part of the day and would definitely have blogged the winner of the 15:30P had I known my first choice was a NR. No big deal as best price was 9/4.

The wet weather has increased the level of non-runners making early selections difficult. At Goodwood, for example, the 16:55 was reduced from 14 to nine runners which changed the whole shape of the race. Don't think I would have backed the winner of this particular race with more going to post though.

I don't often advise forecasts but I know certain readers sometimes have a forecast when I suggest two runners in a race. I hope that was the case in the last at Goodwood on Wednesday when first choice Threave (backed into 6/4) came clear of second choice By Rights (25/1) for a SP forecast of £37.08. Indeed if you were really ambitious you could have locked in a higher dividend with Bet365 early in the day. That paid between £65-70, depending on the exact prices taken. For an explanation as to how this works see my earlier post on this subject:

BOG forecasts

(Note that if there is a rule 4 greater than 10p the BOG forecast will revert to the SP forecast)

Premier League

Already I have too many players in my Premier League TGS portfolio but despite this I've had a bit of a stake saver on the Man U wonder kid. As a friend said the other day he could be anything. Or nothing. So it's a win only wager as follows:

2pts win Anthony Martial to be TGS Premier League @ 16/1 Coral

Price also available with "sporting"bet.

No further bets for today but will probably get involved in Saturday racing either early tonight or before 10 am tomorrow.

Thursday, 24 September 2015

Thursday bets

Quite a few:

15:30P 1pt ew Maulesden May @ 12/1 PP

16:00P 1pt ew Sunraider @ 12/1 Coral

16:35P 2pts win Fattsota @ 4/1 Betfred

17:40P 1.5pts win Ruby's Day @ 8/1 W Hill

18:15CC 1pt ew Aberlady @ 11/1 Skybet 

18:45CC 2pts win Hot Mustard @ 5/2 Skybet

19:15CC 1.5pts win Mr Soprano @ 6/1 Bet365

19:45CC 1.5pts win Dominium @ 6/1 W Hill

All BOG. Total 14.5 points staked. 

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Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Wednesday racing

Had some bets at Goodwood and Kempton today: 

16:55G 1.5pts ew Babs Princess @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG
16:55G 1.5pts win See The Storm @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

17:25G 3pts win Threave @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG
17:25G 0.5pts ew By Rights @ 28/1 Betfred BOG 

17:20K 1.5pts win 1pt place Xceleration @ 8/1 Skybet BOG 

Total 11 points.

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Sunday, 20 September 2015

Premier League top goal scorer 2015/16

On 21 October last year I backed Pelle to be PL TGS after he had notched six Premiership goals. Shortly after this he went on a scoreless run of something like 12 or 13 matches. He seemed to lose completely all confidence. He recovered slightly late in the season to finish 10th= in the scorers' table on 12 goals. Too little too late. 

This season he has started well. Four goals in six matches including the two against Man U today. Southampton, despite losing today, seem to be getting their act together as well. 

As soon as the 16:00 matches concluded I visited Oddschecker to see how the books priced his chances. Fred went 40/1 so I had some of that. He then went 33/1 so I pressed up. Fred is now 25/1. Don't be thinking that these were large bets. I no longer am allowed sizeable bets with any bookmaker and therefore consider myself in a winding down phase. 

There is still a bit of 33s about - bet365 and PP - so my recommendation would be to add Pelle to the portfolio as follows: 

1.5pts ew Graziano Pelle to be Premier League TGS @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Three points staked.

Betting 'giants' Ladbrokes and W Hill offer only 16/1...

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Saturday, 19 September 2015

Bob's 30-year celebration concert (1992)

I find this video strangely therapeutic after a poor day's punting....

Is there a guitarist in the house?

Friday, 18 September 2015

Saturday racing

Minimal stakes tomorrow given the result of Bronze Cup today. Small interest only with the sponsors (who I note now are offering five places on the two feature handicaps): 

14:35A 1pt win Eccleston @ 9/1 W Hill BOG 
14:35A 1pt win Fendale @ 14/1 W Hill BOG

16:45A 1pt win Rivellino @ 14/1 W Hill BOG (You might get 18/1 with WH at 8:30 Saturday as it's a Pricewise horse, however I will book it at 14/1 BOG)
16:45A 1pt win Jack Dexter @ 14/1 W Hill BOG 

4 x 0.35pts ew doubles above at prices (ew 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Total 6.8 points staked.

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Friday racing - Bronze Cup update.

Very few bookmakers offering five places on Ayr's feature race. PP, Fred and WH are, for example, only betting four places as I write. This is a William Hill sponsored race!

That said Coral don't seem to want to offer me more than a fiver ew in their Bronze Cup market. Skybet are first five too however. One more bet (price with Sky or Coral): 

15:05A 1.5pts win 1pt place Gramercy @ 11/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

That's it for today. 

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Thursday, 17 September 2015

Ayr Bronze Cup

You may not be interested in my views on the above race following today's ten point loss spread over three tracks. A very poor day for the blog. The Ayr meeting was extremely profitable for us in both 2014 and 2013. Indeed I backed and blogged the winners of the last two Bronze Cups: Expose @ 16/1 (10p r4) and Circuitous @ 33/1. I get the feeling it's not going to be quite so easy this year. 

I have read various articles about the course being 'set up differently this year' without any explanation of what that might actually mean. 

As for tomorrow's race, some firms are offering 1/4 odds first five - one of them being Coral. I've had a bet with them as follows: 

15:05A 1pt ew Bertiewhittle @ 20/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

The old boy is difficult to win with but could be in the shake up. 

I'll take a look at the rest of the racing in the morning. Good luck if you get involved. 

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Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Thursday racing

Spoilt for choice tomorrow. Plenty of opportunities...

Probably had too many bets, but for your info and (possible) consideration this is what I've had: 

16:00A 2pts win 1pt place Majestic Manannan @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
16:00A 0.5pts ew Threes Grand @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:45P 1.5pts win Lil Sophella @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG 

15:15P 2pts win Briardale @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:20CC 1.5pts win The Dukkerer @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

18:50CC 1pt win Venus Grace @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG
18:50CC 1pt win Wowee @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 11 points. 

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Wednesday results

A very messy day with numerous non-runners. Sandown eight non-runners to reduce the 13:45 field to just nine. Selections finished second and third. Maybe it's after timing but I would not have suggested backing both 7/2 and 9/2 shots in this race - effectively a 6/4 chance combined. Not my style. 

At Beverley just eight of the original 15 ran. Fortunately Keep It Dark won the race albeit with a large rule four deduction to my bet: 8/1 became 5.48/1. So the 1.5pt win bet yielded a return of 9.72 points. Small profit on the day of 2.52 points. 

Possibilities at Ayr, Ponte and CC tomorrow. May post something later tonight.

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Tuesday, 15 September 2015

Wednesday racing

Two tricky 5f handicaps at Sandown and Beverley tomorrow. Also not brilliant prices on the selections I've backed but of course there is BOG protection should they drift a little: 

13:45S 2pts win Rocket Rob @ 6/1 Coral BOG 
13:45S 1.5pts win Ladweb @ 7/1 Coral BOG

16:50B 1.5pts win Keep It Dark @ 8/1 Coral BOG
16:50B 1pt win Shawkantango @ 16/1 Coral BOG 

4 x 0.3pt win doubles above selections at Coral prices.

Total 7.2pts staked. 

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Monday, 14 September 2015

Champions' League

Somehow managed to make a small profit on the outright market last season with Juventus contesting the final (advised @ 28/1 ew, two selections). The fact that BT Sport has provided me with all the live coverage of the event should, I suppose, be an extra incentive to have a bet. However I seldom watch football on TV as I find it rather boring most of the time. I must have ADD or something. 

Anyway, for the moment, I've just had one bet on the following team. They appear, on paper, to be in a relatively easy group and potentially have a reasonable draw: 

1.5pts ew Atletico Madrid to win Champions' League @ 20/1 Bet365 (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Available at 20/1 with a few firms as I write.

Three points staked. 

No horse racing bets are anticipated until Wednesday at the earliest. 

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Sunday, 13 September 2015

Sunday result

If you are looking at the result of the 14:00C today and cannot see either of my selections in the first four - do not despair! If you had the bet on In Salutem with Coral, as recommended, you will have been paid out for a place. Indeed any reputable bookmaker will also pay the place bet (not the dreadful Sportingbet though, but why would you be betting with them?). Here's what happened: 

In Salutem race comments: "Tracked leaders, 6th from halfway, improved and not much room under 2f out, headway 1f out and hampered rivals, 2nd inside final furlong, no impression when slightly tight for room close home, finished 2nd, disqualified"

I've not seen any replays but I did see the race live and have a funny feeling it may have been Creggs Pipes that he tried to knock over the stands' rail....

Anyway the upshot is: three points staked, six points return.

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Sunday horses

Poor results at Chester and Doncaster but at least an ew return at Leopardstown in the 16-runner 7f handicap. Main fancy didn't run but Colour Blue, the ew poke, ran on well to snatch fourth. One race today, at The Curragh, the opening 6f handicap:

14:00C 1pt ew In Salutem @ 20/1 Coral BOG
14:00C 0.5pts ew Creggs Pipes @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Three points staked. 

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Saturday, 12 September 2015

Saturday horses (2)

Two more races:

15:45D 2pts win Fields Of Athenry @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

19:20Leop 1.5pts win Cape Wolfe @ 10/1 Coral BOG
19:20Leop 0.75pts ew Colour Blue @ 20/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked. 

That's it. 

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Saturday horses

The horses I like at Chester are a bit short so I've played doubles with Fred:

15:25C This Is For You @ 9/4 Betfred BOG
15:25C Ejaazah @ 9/2 Betfred BOG

16:35C Hoofalong @ 7/2 Betfred BOG 
16:35C Storm Lighting @ 13/2 Betfred BOG 

4 x 0.75pts win doubles 

Three points staked. 

Another bet or two in the next hour.

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Thursday, 10 September 2015


Just playing the one race today. The mile contest at Chelmsford: 

18:40C 2pts win Bint Dandy @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG
18:40C 1pt win Little Prairie @ 11/2 Boylesports BOG 

Three points staked.

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Wednesday, 9 September 2015

Kempton results - today's two selections

You can't get much closer without cleaning up!

Brave Archibald backed 4/1 > 2/1 second beaten a neck.......

Showtime Blues backed 11/1 > 13/2 second beaten a head.......

Stake 5.5 points, return 7.5 points (11/1 place 1/4 odds, place double 4/1 & 11/1 1/4 odds)

(Plus one point free bet from Coral for Showtime Blues margin of defeat)

Kempton tonight

Played a couple at the all-weather venue: 

18:20K 2.5pts win Brave Archibald @ 4/1 Coral BOG 

19:50K 1pt ew Showtime Blues @ 11/1 Coral BOG 

0.5pt ew double above two at the Coral prices BOG

5.5 points staked.

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Sunday, 6 September 2015

Kerber etc

Played the best tennis I've seen her play in one of the finest ladies' matches ever at the U.S. Open. Hits 45 winners, saves five match points. 

Comes second.

Moving on: 

Hoping Mladenovic can extend her run tonight against Makarova. 

Just a couple of speculative bets today: the "British" player Konta could continue her winning streak against two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova. That is if the Czech has one of her off days and/or it's very hot tomorrow.

1pt Johanna Konta to win third quarter ladies' singles @ 20/1 Betfred

Can anyone beat Serena? Well Keys is one of the few that can hit the ball as hard. Will continue to be enormous pressure on SW GS. Of course if she beats Keys she will almost certainly face her sister next. It's only 1/3 odds ew with Fred now but the 28/1 Keys makes appeal:

1pt ew Madison Keys to win US Open @ 28/1 Betfred (1/3 odds 1,2) 

Three points staked. 

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Saturday, 5 September 2015

Ladies' second quarter update

Mladenovic is now a best priced 100/30 to reach the semi-final having been 25/1 at the outset. So a chance of a decent pick-up but two more wins are required. Plays Makarova next who beat her narrowly in three sets on clay earlier this year.

In the other match a rejuvenated Bouchard plays Vinci. The latter easily beat the former world number five at New Haven in August but that was before the Canadian linked up with Jimmy Connors. This has brought about a remarkable change in form and confidence. Bouchard won a very high quality match against the plucky Cibulkova last night and if she recovers from that could reverse the form with Vinci.

I've had a bet on Bouchard in the hope that she might meet Mladenovic in the quarter-final:

2pts E Bouchard to win ladies' second quarter @ 3/1 Paddy Power 

Friday, 4 September 2015

Saturday racing

Not much time for betting/posting tomorrow so have had a couple of bets tonight. Had a good look through Ascot and Haydock cards and struggled to come up with anything. Instead have tried my "luck" at Thirsk in the handicap sprints as follows:

16:15T 2pts win Mon Brav @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG 
16:15T 1pt win Grissom @ 8/1 Coral BOG

1755T 2pts win Brando @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG
17:55T 0.75pts ew Something Lucky @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

1pt ew double Mon Brav @ 11/2 and Brando @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG

Total 8.5 points staked

Good luck if you get involved.