Saturday, 23 August 2014

US Open

Absolutely no good in the warm up tournaments so will be hoping for some joy in the big one which gets underway at 16:00 UK time on Monday. I am having a look at the quarter betting and if I have a bet will either post tonight or tomorrow morning. Meanwhile here is the latest on my six outright ante-post bets, now that the draws have been done and the markets have settled down:

Men's singles

 Federer  Price taken: 6/1             Best win price now: 11/4

 Raonic    Price taken 80/1           Best ew price now: 28/1

Dimitrov  Price taken 40/1            Best ew price now: 20/1

Ladies' singles

V Williams Price taken 100/1      Best ew price now 50/1

Kvitova      Price taken 20/1        Best ew price now  10/1

Bouchard   Price taken 10/1        Best ew price now 22/1

Other than Bouchard the portfolio looks ok. The Canadian, as well as being completely out of form, is carrying a hamstring injury. So her prospects look bleak.

It would of course be better for the Murray Christmas bets if he fails to regain the US Open title. He has drifted to 10 on betfair following the draw which has placed him in Djoko's quarter. I wouldn't blame you - if you are on the full Murray portfolio - having a point or two hedge @ 10.0. However I am sitting tight!

Enjoy the tourney. It's being shown on Sky Sports and Eurosport in the UK.

Friday, 22 August 2014

Goodwood Saturday

I'm going to give one more chance to Majestic Moon who let me down at Ripon last Saturday. I have had:

14:55G 1pt ew Majestic Moon @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

(Win stake returned as a free bet if placed second or third)

Two points staked.

Thursday, 21 August 2014

WTA New Haven 2

Bouchard: gone at the game. The player who has reached the last four of every GS this year culminating in a run to the Wimbledon final without dropping a set. Since then, four matches played and just one victory. Hugely disappointing. 

One more stab at this tournament. Watched Giorgi completely destroy Wozniacki  yesterday. The Dane had no answer to the Italian's powerful play. However she is very streaky and could come out and play a stinker today. Her next opponent is Muguruza and if she gets those big strikes going the statuesque Spaniard will have no answer. If she wins tonight she would be favourite to win her semi. I have had:

1.5pts ew Giorgi to win WTA New Haven @ 8/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2) 

Three points staked. 

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Tuesday, 19 August 2014

WTA New Haven

Quite happy with my men's US Open punts - Federer is now a top price 7/2 following the anticipated withdraw of Nadal. This means of course Federer will be seeded two in the opposite half to Djoko. The other two selections are also trading at shorter prices than those taken.

It's a different story in the ladies' US Open. Both Bouchard and Kvitova have had terrible results since their Wimbledon final. They are playing New Haven this week in an attempt to find some form ahead of the last GS of the year.

Kvitova will do well to get past Makarova in the next round. The Russian beat the dual Wimbledon champion recently in Montreal. Bouchard beat BoJo last night 6-1 6-1 in 52 minutes. She had lost their only previous encounter at Edgbaston in 2013. Does this mark a return to form for the Canadian? It needs to otherwise I can see her having no chance next week. Next up for the youngster is a match with Stosur, the Aussie having taken over 2.5 hours to get past Nara yesterday.

The interesting thing about the betting here is that Genie is 10/1. Roughly the same price as she is to win the US Open. Yet Serena and Sharapova are not here and Halep, the favourite, is in the other half of the draw. Kvitova is too short at 5/1. So I have had: 

2pts ew Genie Bouchard to win WTA New Haven @ 10/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Four points staked.

(Please note Betfred is showing 12/1 Bouchard on oddschecker - that's yesterday's price, the compiler is obviously still asleep!)

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Sunday, 17 August 2014

US Open

One week to go to the final GS tournament. Of course we have the chance of a decent pick up on Murray if he fails to win the men's singles. The bets I placed on Christmas Day are looking very promising (who else gets bored on Christmas Day?!). He has not reached a final in any tournament this year so the bets could yield a decent profit. Here's a reminder of them:

I'm not going to hedge on Murray @ 9/2 for the US Open. I'll just let the various bets run. 

It's possible that Murray might not make the O2 end of season tournament as he is not currently ranked in the top eight. He might be showing up as a reserve. 

As for who is going to win the men's singles, there could be an upset. The warm favourite Djoko was unexpectedly beaten in the lead up tournaments by Tsonga and Robredo. Nadal is a possible non-runner, deciding in the next 48 hours whether he will participate. Murray is not playing well. Federer is though. I have added him to my portfolio today:

3pts Federer to win men's US Open singles @ 6/1 Coral

That means I have three players against the field with bets already placed on Raonic (80/1) and Dimitrov (40/1). 

The ladies' portfolio consists of Bouchard (10/1), Kvitova (20/1) and Venus Williams (100/1).

Good luck if you are involved. 

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Saturday, 16 August 2014

Great St Wilfred Handicap

Having looked at the race last night I thought Majestic Moon looked the best of RA Fahey's four contenders. Disappointed to learn it's a Pricewise selection which means the price has contracted. Was hoping for 16/1 but 14/1 with Coral will suffice with first five ew betting available. Only Coral and Bet365 are offering first five. I've had:

15:30R 1.5pts ew Majestic Moon @ 14/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

(Plus win stake - up to £25 - is returned as a free bet if second beaten a head or less!)

Three points staked.

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Jockeys' Championship

Richard Hughes has told everyone he is going to challenge for the championship despite being 15 winners behind RL Moore. Doesn't mean he can get there but the commitment is significant. His declaration may also have a (negative) influence on RLM. 

The markets have not moved much since Hughsie's declaration and 5/2 represents a reasonable  price for him to achieve his objective. This is the current price offered by Coral, Paddy Power and Bet365. I have had:

8pts Richard Hughes to be 2014 champion jockey @ 5/2 Coral

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Friday, 15 August 2014

Cincinnati update

Well would you believe it following the exit of Djoko, Mugray is now favourite to win the tournament. The Scot has not reached a final this year and has not beaten a top ten player since  Wimbledon 2013. In the last round he saved a match point in getting past Isner in a final set tie-break. I wouldn't be in a hurry to back him @ 2/1.

My tournament selection is still in there having also won his last match on a final set tie-break. Raonic now plays Fognini for a chance to play Mugray or Federer in the semi. 

In the other side of the draw Stan has been presented with an opportunity to reach the final. He's been in indifferent form since his Aus Open win but now faces Benneteau and if successful would meet Ferrer or Djoko's conquerer Robredo in the semi. I've had a bet with William Hill who are still offering ew betting:

1.5pts ew Stan Wawrinka to win ATP Cincinnati @ 5/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2)

Three points staked.

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Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Cincinnati ATP/WTA

My two picks for this week's tennis for small stakes:

1pt ew Milos Raonic to win ATP Cincinnati @ 14/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pts ew Venus Williams to win WTA Cincinnati @ 25/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.25pt ew double.

Total 3.5 pts.

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Monday, 11 August 2014

Weekend results

Federer second 5/1

Mickleson second 10/1

No bets today!

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Sunday, 10 August 2014

USPGA Championship

McIlroy is one shot clear as the final round approaches. He is as short as 4/7 to win which makes a market for each-way betting. Most - but not all - bookmakers are offering 1/5 odds 1,2,3. I've had a couple of bets as follows:-

1.5pts ew Phil Mickelson to win USPGA @ 10/1 Paddy Power (1/5th odds 1,2,3) 

0.5pts ew Louis Oosthuizen to win USPGA @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1,2,3)
0.5pts ew Louis Oosthuizen to win USPGA WITHOUT McIlroy @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Total five points. 

Elsewhere Fed has reached the Toronto final and plays Tsonga tonight. Roger holds a 11-5 HTH and has beaten Jo in their last two encounters. However Jo has already overcome massive HTHs against Djoko and Mugray in this tournament and is obviously playing at the top of his game.

No joy in the Shergar Cup. Dettori not at the races but Williams managed third place. 

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Saturday, 9 August 2014

Shergar Cup

Tennis losers overnight with Raonic and Vika going out. The latter had been carrying a serious leg injury for most of the tournament. So we are left with just Federer. We need the Swiss to win the event to finish in front. He is 4/6 to do so.

Turning to the Shergar Cup. Last year I managed to find Mosse at a big price for top jockey. This year Fortune has a chance but has been put up by Pricewise so the value has gone. My selections this year are rather more obvious. Frankie's rides look particularly attractive. The first four are all single prices and three of them could start favourite. I even give a squeak to his rag in the last which I have had a small bet on. It's dropped in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time:

4pts L. Dettori to be top jockey @ 7/2 Coral
1pt ew C. Williams to be top jockey @ 6/1 William Hill (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

0.75pts ew Rufford @ 22/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

7.5 points staked.

Monday, 4 August 2014

Tennis - Canada 2

One more small bet this time on the home hope Raonic who has just won the Citi Open with some amazing stats. The problem for him his trying to win back to back tournaments plus his poor record against Fed should they meet in the semi-final. But you have to admire the figures from his winning week:

Aces: 83
Service games won: 98% (52 of 53)
Break points saved: 88% (7 of 8)
First service points won: 88%

I can't let him go unbacked at Fred's current price:

1pt ew Raonic to win ATP Toronto @ 14/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1/2)

Two points staked.

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Tennis - Canada

Have had a couple of bets in the Canadian tournaments taking place this week. 

I'm going for Federer in the men's event partly because of his good record here as well as his excellent showing at Wimbledon. But also because of his draw. Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov and Wawrinka are all in the other half of the draw. Nadal is absent through injury. 

In the ladies' event I'm hoping that the Wimbledon champion Kvitova can continue her good form. She too appears to be well drawn with Serena, Pova and Bouchard in the other half. Azarenka, if returning to form, could provide a test for the No 1 Czech player should they both reach the semi-final. My bets are:

2pts ew Federer to win ATP Toronto @ 5/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

2pts ew Kvitova to win WTA Montreal @ 9/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

1pt ew double the above two selections.

1pt ew Azarenka to win WTA Montreal @ 16/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1/2)

Twelve points staked.

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Saturday, 2 August 2014

Stewards' Cup 2

My first selection in the big race is all the rage having subsequently been revealed as a Pricewise selection. Likely to start at 5/1 or even 9/2. My second bet in the race is as follows:

15:50G 1pt ew Seeking Magic @ 16/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

In other news, last night's speculative SPOTY selection Fragapane was cut earlier this morning from 33/1 to 16/1 and then to 8/1 by William Hill. Best bookmaker price is currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes although bits and pieces at bigger odds are available on betfair (win only of course). 

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Friday, 1 August 2014


We've seen Beth Tweddle in the shake up before (third in 2006) so why not Claudia Fragapane? Probably a shoe-in for the "young" version of the award but a big price with WH for the senior event and ew terms available too. I have had:

1pt ew Claudia Fragapane to win SPOTY @ 33/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1,2,3)

Two points invested.

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Stewards' Cup

My first pop at the big race is rather an obvious choice. However a six pound penalty may not be sufficient to stop my selection winning again. I have had:

15:50G 3pts win Muthmir @ 7/1 Betfred BOG 

This price is also available at the time of writing with Ladbrokes, Bet Victor and Stan James.

I will almost certainly have another bet in the race and if I do I will publish on the blog before 11am tomorrow.

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Women's US Open

I already have two players in this portfolio: Kvitova and Bouchard. I've now added Venus Williams at a big price following her straight sets victory over Vika at Stanford. The latter is single figures for the last GS event of the year with most firms. Admittedly Vika is still on the come back trail but this was a fine win for Venus. I am still thinking what might have been at Wimbledon because Venus was so close to putting out the eventual winner with no-one particularly decent to play (after that match) until the final. 

Anyway I wanted to take the bet now as there is a small chance Venus could beat Petko in the next round and then potentially Serena (or Ana) for a place in the final. Her US price would crash if she was to win her next two matches. I have had:

0.75pts ew Venus Williams to win US Open @ 100/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts staked (available with several other firms at this price ew and also @ 125/1 win only).

Elsewhere I still intend to plod along with the occasional blogged big race bet with the few remaining bookmakers who will lay me more than a tenner. Think I was definitely on a decent play with Bronze Angel (12/1>9/1) at Ascot last week despite it not making the frame. I noticed (after I published my selections) that several "good judges" also suggested bets on it including Neil Channing (Betting Emporium) and Raceclear. Will probably have a go at tomorrow's Stewards' Cup which looks impossible and therefore is my kind of race! Will blog selection(s) tonight or by 11am Saturday. I certainly won't be betting with the sponsor 32Red who just seem to offer unbelievably uncompetitive odds on most events. I wonder who does bet with them?

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