Friday, 30 December 2011
As we go into 2012 the question is can he continue this renaissance or will age finally catch up with him? I think he may have one good year left, despite not winning a GS in 2011.
The news that Nadal has a nagging shoulder injury, for which he will take several weeks off in February, has prompted me to lay out a few pounds on the Swiss from our November winnings as follows:
5pts Federer to win Australian Open @ 3/1 with Totesport
3pts Federer to win exactly two GS tourneys in 2012 @ 14/1 with William Hill
1pt Federer to win exactly three GS tourneys in 2012 @ 80/1 with William Hill
0.5pt Federer to win all four GS tourneys in 2012 @ 200/1 with William Hill
Total invested 9.5pts
Djoko is likely to be a huge threat in 2012 of course but Murray has yet to win a set in a GS final so should be discounted (I believe) for yet another year.
Monday, 26 December 2011
I have taken a chance with Captain Chris who tackles 3m for the first time.
I have had 1pt ew Captain Chris @ 8/1 with Paddy Power (also available with Ladbrokes) both BOG; and with Coral (no BOG insurance).
Thursday, 22 December 2011
Cavendish looks a very short priced favourite to me - around the 4/11 mark. I don't think he will necessarily endear himself to the viewing public tonight. I have just laid him @1.43 on betfair - so getting close to 5/2 NOT to win SPOTY. I've even had a little lay bet @1.05 for the top3. That is 20/1 NOT to be in the top3.
I really don't have an opinion on who might win. However, I think it's ridiculous having three golfers in the final ten. Guys who stroll about in sweaters but never break into a sweat. I don't consider them sportsmen I'm afraid.
So these are my thoughts. No recommended bets although the best value is probably a lay on betfair of Cavendish around 1.43 or shorter.
Monday, 19 December 2011
There are constant rumours that he will be sacked - win or lose - after tomorrow's match. The owners - Venky's - don't seem to know what they are doing either and the fans are against them too hence the atmosphere at the match could be very hostile tomorrow. Money is tight and apparently Barclays are seeking £10m to shore up the balance sheet.
Even if Blackburn don't lose tomorrow it will be a barren Xmas with away fixtures at Liverpool and Man Utd on the horizon. I'm going for Armageddon, starting with:
2pts win Bolton @ 11/4 to win at Blackburn tomorrow (Paddy P) - also available totesport, VC, betfred.
5pts win Blackburn to finish rock bottom in Prem League @ 3/1 with William Hill
Friday, 16 December 2011
In the Europa League, Udinese have been given a reasonable draw but the price we took to win the event is little changed, partly because of the Manchester teams parachuting into the contest.
I think that Valencia, who play Stoke in the next round, represent some value at 14/1 in the Europa League with skybet and VC. The latter will lay me nothing as they refuse to take my bets and skybet's permitted maximum stake was £1.79 win or each-way. The current betfair price is 15.5 so that is just below 14/1 when commission is deducted.
I therefore have had 2pts @ 14/1 Valencia with skybet for the Europa League. (The balance of my bet placed with betfair).
1.5pts ew Kim Clijsters @ 14/1 for Australian Open with William Hill
Total 3pts invested.
Thursday, 15 December 2011
Today my main bet is again in a 7f handicap. I like the look of Forks in 18:30 race. The Timeform top-rated four-year-old was a good winner at Lingfield last time out and the form is holding up well.
I have had 2.5pts win Forks @ 7/1 with William Hill (BOG)
In the Nursery (17:30) I have had 1pt win Sunrise Dance @ 12/1 with William Hill(BOG)
Wednesday, 14 December 2011
Monday, 12 December 2011
The quality of acts was probably the worst ever. But this, of course, is of no consequence to us as we are only interested in making money on the event. In fact while the final was taking place I went to see a documentary film about the life and music of Joni Mitchell, an artist that has captivated me since hearing her first album in 1968. I think I can safely say that no-one will be listening to Little Mix in 43 years' time. I hesitate to say even in 43 weeks' time - because with Simon Cowell pulling the strings, they could still be conning the teen market this time next year.
As Paul Weller wrote: "the public gets what the public wants...".
Or do they? What makes the event such an attractive betting proposition is the way the contestants are manipulated by the producers. Everything including song choice, sound production, costumes, running order, judges comments and VT footage is carefully crafted to influence the voting public either negatively or positively. By following these signals one can often read the way the producers are thinking. In the case of the winners, it was clear from around halfway through the series that they would do whatever they could to get Little Mix to the final.
Friday, 9 December 2011
2012 has been confirmed as her last season and although she wants to do well in the Olympics and at Wimbledon you cannot rule out her defending her Aus title.
In any event I'm happy to get involved with Ladbrokes' 16/1 for the first GS.
I have had 3pts win @ 16/1 Clijsters to win Australian Open with Ladbrokes.
Thursday, 8 December 2011
The second selection is Slatey Hen, the top weight in the lucky last. The bets are:
1pt win Taajub @ 8/1 with William Hill
1pt win Slatey Hen @ 8/1 with William Hill
0.5pt each way double above prices. All prices BOG.
(Both prices also available @ totesport)
Total 3pts staked.
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Misha finished fourth as we anticipated thus landing our 10/11 elimination wager.
The racing does not make a lot of appeal today, however I have invested 1pt win Ay Tay Tate @ 6/1 with William Hill (BOG) in the 15:00 Southwell.
Friday, 2 December 2011
Now he looks very much as if he is on the way back so I've had a couple of bets in two 2012 majors as follows:
6pts win Tiger Woods to win the 2012 Masters @ 7/1 with Coral (also available with blue square/888)
6pts win Tiger Woods to win the 2012 Open Championship with Unibet @ 15.0
Total 12pts staked
I have had 5.5pts Misha B to be next elimination @ 10/11 with Paddy Power (also available with Ladbrokes).
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
18:30 1pt win Perfect Act 9/1 Ladbrokes
19:00 2pts win Fenella Fudge 4/1 Ladbrokes
19:30 2pts win Doctor Hillary 9/2 Ladbrokes
Plus 1pt e.w. treble at the above prices. These are all best odds guaranteed races so if they start at bigger prices we are on at SP.
Total staked seven points.
Tuesday, 29 November 2011
She returned to the court this week to play an exhibition match against Serena. The form will tell us little but she did beat her younger sister 6-4 7-6. She has given a commitment to play a full season in 2012 starting with Auckland in January (after playing only 11 matches in 2011). Not surprisingly she has dropped to No. 104 in the world.
Can she, like some before her (Seles, Henin, Clijsters) make a successful comeback? Could she win another grand slam? She will play an exhibition doubles with Serena against Schiavone/Pennetta this weekend so this may give us another clue to her well being. Certainly age is not on her side and she could easily be drawn against, say, Kvitova in the first round of the Australian Open.
Nevertheless I have had 1pt win @ 50.0 Venus Williams with Unibet for Australian Open.
She has never won the Australian (or the French for that matter). All her GS wins have come at Wimbledon (5) and the US Open (2). She's not won the latter for a decade but the last of her SW19 wins came in 2008.
I have therefore had 2pts each way Venus @ 25/1 with Paddy Power for Wimbledon
You can get 33/1 Venus with VC for Wimbledon but VC will no longer lay any of my tennis bets and has closed my account. However the important advantage of PP is that it is NRNB: a condition - as far as I know that only applies to Skybet, PP and Betdaq in outright tennis markets. So if she was unfortunate enough to be taken ill again our Wimbledon bet would be refunded
Total staked five points.
Monday, 28 November 2011
One bet that's not looking so good is Liverpool for Premiership top four. We took a rather skinny looking 11/10 and even after two good performances in beating Chelsea and then drawing with Man City they are available at 13/8 today. Their fixtures in the run up to Xmas look reasonable so hopefully they can move up the table.
Leaving aside the Manchester teams, we are looking at any two from Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and possibly Newcastle to make the top four. Today I have had a very speculative 1pt win Newcastle @ 25/1 for Premiership top four with Ladbrokes. (Also available with Coral and Stan James).
Friday, 25 November 2011
Even though he has a very difficult match ahead we have to have a saver on feisty Ferrer. He will be back tomorrow to play Federer at 14:00 in the first semi-final. The H2H? Just the 11-0 to the inform Swiss player. The other semi is at 20:00 - Tsonga v Berdych ( H2H 0-1)
Let's first review our potential profits (16pts portfolio so far):-
Federer 12pts @ 3/1 - potential return 48pts; profit 32pts
Tsonga 2pts @ 14/1, subsequent 1pt @ 12/1 - potential return 43pts; profit 27pts
Berdych 1pt @ 29/1 - potential return 30pts; profit 14pts
I have just placed 1.5pts @ 16/1 Ferrer with Ladbrokes. Obviously a Ferrer tournament win now returns 25.5pts for an overall eight point profit on the tournament. (Those of you with Sportingbet accounts can get 18/1 Ferrer however I do not bet with that company).
Our revised tournament profit will now be as follows:
Federer 30.5pts; Tsonga 25.5pts; Berdych 12.5pts and Ferrer 8pts.
Enjoy the semis and the final. Let's hope for that Paris repeat - Federer v Tsonga final!
I would have gone skint a long time ago if I'd always backed players or teams that "needed to win" against those that didn't. However if Berdych was to win the first set against Ferrer tonight (an even money chance) there is the possibility that Ferrer might then take his foot of the gas with Saturday's semi in mind and a certain place therein. For these reasons I have had 3pts win @ 5/2 Berdych to beat Ferrer 2-0 sets with William Hill. (Sportingbet has a slightly higher price of 3.6 if you are able to get that).
Once the final four is known late this evening I will look and see whether we need to place another outright bet to protect our 16pt investment in the outright market.
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
All that's a long way off but I have taken a further 1pt win Tsonga @ 12/1 to win the tournament with Paddy Power. Price available with several other firms.
Our bet on Berdych to beat Mugray is of course void as the Scot has just retired from the tournament.
There is a possibility of course that Mugray could retire during his next match if he does not retire beforehand. The H2H is 4-1 Berdych who has won the last four encounters.
His serve looked very poor against the Spaniard so I have had 8pts @ 11/10 Berdych to beat Mugray with Ladbrokes. It is important to have the bet with a bookmaker that requires one point of the match to be played for the result to stand. To my knowledge these bookmakers are Ladbrokes, Blue Square, 888 and Coral.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
Elsewhere there was more hyping of Little Mix on xfactor. I note the producers even got David Walliams to declare that they are his favoured act. They are 3/1 second favourite as I write so we certainly have value punts at 14/1 each-way and 13/2.
Federer starts the defence of his London crown this afternoon. The 3/1 and 5/2 has long gone and he is no better than 15/8 before a ball is struck in anger.
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Airdrie kick-off at 15:00 so there is an opportunity for some some small singles as follows:
Airdrie 5-0 16/1 Ladbrokes 0.5pt
Airdrie 6-0 33/1 Boyles 0.25pt
Airdrie 7-0 40/1 Boyles/Bet365 0.25pt
Airdrie 8-0 80/1 Ladbrokes 0.25pt
Total 1.25pts staked.
Friday, 18 November 2011
Odds apply to both Airdrie United and Partick Thistle winning their respective matches by the scores shown.
The bet is 16 x 0.25pts correct score doubles with Ladbrokes.
Total staked 4pts.
Two more selections today at Kempton as follows.
1pt win Gap Princess @ 14/1 (17:05) with Ladbrokes (BOG)
2pts win New Leyf @ 13/2 (17:35) with Ladbrokes (BOG)
0.5pt ew double at the above prices (Ladbrokes)
Total 4pts staked.
Thursday, 17 November 2011
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
I have had 2pts win Gosforth Park @ 11/4 with William Hill (BOG)
In the circumstances I think it is worth an additional 1pt win @ 13/2 Little Mix with 888.com (or Blue Sq). In what is increasingly looking like a poor year it is possible now that they could win.
Saturday, 12 November 2011
The holder, Federer, is a worthy favourite having won Basel indoors and is set to play the Paris indoor final tomorrow. He is therefore my main bet. I have added two small bets on outsiders who have both played well recently. My portfolio is as follows:-
12 pts win Federer @ 3/1 with Bet365
(5/2 is next best with Ladbrokes and W Hill if you cannot get this).
2 pts win Tsonga @ 14/1 with Stan James (also available with Bet365).
1 pt win Berdych @ 30.0 with Unibet.
Total stakes 15 pts.
Capello seems to be willing to take a few chances with an experimental England team. He will be heralded as a genius if he pulls it off and beats the world champions. Far more likely I think is that Spain will take England apart. I have had a couple of small correct bets as follows:
Spain to win 2-0 = 0.5pt win @ 8/1 William Hill
Spain to win 3-0 = 1pt win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes
Unquoted* score on betfair correct score market = 1pt win @ 10.5 Betfair
(*This bet will win if either team scores four or more goals)
Total staked 2.5pts
Thursday, 10 November 2011
I've therefore had two bets as follows:
Next country to receive EU/IMF bailout: Italy 8pts @ 2/1 with Stan James
First country to leave the euro: Italy 2pts @ 14/1 with Stan James ( 12/1 PP but only 7/2 WH).
Total staked 10 pts.
Sunday, 6 November 2011
The outright price of 14/1 we took each-way is now around half that price. May not be winner material but a strong chance of finishing in the frame as the producers would probably like a group in the final three and further promotional assistance looks likely.
Thursday, 3 November 2011
I have updated our 2011 results with Paul H winnings. You can find the details here: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php
It means we are running at 10.92% profit in 2011 and an even more respectable 45.88% accumulatively since the blog bets service began in December 2009. We have won over 650 points in this time frame.
Ivanovic was fairly unimpressive in putting Vinci away (40% first serve success rate). I am going to take a chance and back the lump to beat the looker in the semi-final.
I have had 4pts win Petrova to beat Ivanovic @ 6/4 with Stan James. Their H2H is very close. Some sites say Ivanovic 6-5 whereas betfair stats say Petrova 7-5. What's not in doubt is Petrova has won the last two meetings. Therefore 6/4 is fair value to down the defending champion.
First of all I have taken 12/1 Vinci who has had a terrific year. She plays Ivanovic in the first round and although the H2H is 4-2 in the Serb's favour, Vinci has won both matches that have been played in 2011. If she wins tomorrow she would play Petrova or Peng for a place in the final.
I have had 1.5pts ew Vinci @ 12/1 (1/3 odds 1,2) with Ladbrokes (also available with SJ).
In the top half of the draw I have gone for Hantuchova who plays Lisicki with whom she is 1-1. Lisicki beat DH in the Birmingham final (on grass of course) but the Slovakian is preferred back on a hard court. If she wins then she will probably meet Bartoli for a place in the final. Amazingly DH holds a 5-1 H2H with the French woman and that is another reason for taking a punt.
I have had 2pts win Hantuchova @ 12.0 with Unibet.
Total 5pts staked.
Wednesday, 2 November 2011
I think the bet today is 2pts win Haase to win first set against Murray @ 5/1 with 888.com (or Blue Square).
3pts win Little Mix to be top group @ 3/1 with Paddy Power (i.e. to finish in front of The Risk)
1.5pts ew Little Mix to win X-factor @ 14/1 with Paddy Power 1/5th odds 1,2,3.
Total six points staked.
Tuesday, 1 November 2011
Sunday, 30 October 2011
Udinese have started well in Serie A (they won again today), lying third as I write just behind those great names Juventus and Milan. I have had 2pts win, 1pt place @ 22/1 Udinese with Stan James to win the Europa League. If you have a bwin account you can get 24/1 but it's a win only market.
Total stake 3pts.
Friday, 28 October 2011
The final round robin matches take place today. Kvitova plays Aggie today and should win on what we have seen to date. Aggie needs to win a minimum of one set to progress to the semi-finals. I think she might do that despite carrying a shoulder injury. Kvitova can have moments when she drifts out of a match and, of course, does not need to win the match to make the semis.
I have had 1pt win Kvitova to win today's match by 2-1 in sets @ 3/1 with William Hill.
Thursday, 27 October 2011
Talking of rain, I have just returned from racing in Galway where the ground was as heavy as I have ever seen. I was amazed that it wasn't called off.
As for today it's an ironic choice of bet. Fallon in the last at Kempton. He is well drawn. Field reduced to nine runners as I write but SJ still offering 9/1 the selection. 1pt win The Name Is Frank @ 9/1 with Stan James.
Tuesday, 18 October 2011
I'm having two small bets here today. 0.5pts ew Little Village @ 25/1 in the 17:20 and 0.25 pts ew Norcroft @ 25/1 in the 16:50 both with William Hill Both races 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 but unfortunately will revert to first three should there be a non-runner. Total stake 1.5pts.
Saturday, 15 October 2011
Friday, 14 October 2011
I am still cursing myself for not backing Dream Ahead e.w. against the odds on Goldikova in the Prix De La Foret (on Arc day). That day there were eight runners and it was 10/1 bar two. Dream Ahead won @ 7/2.
Tomorrow they bet 1/3 Frankel, 6/1 Excelebration, 7/1 Immortal Verse and 33/1 bar three. My choice is the filly Immortal Verse and I have had 2pts ew @ 7/1 with Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1,2,3.
In the Champion Stakes I like the look of the lightly raced Dubai Prince with Frankie Dettori up. I think this could be one of tomorrow's gambles. I have had 3pts win Dubai Prince @ 8/1 with William Hill (BOG)
Total stake seven points.
Monday, 10 October 2011
Naturally the bookmakers have reacted by cutting her in price to win the first grand slam in 2012. She is now a top priced 40/1 with skybet for the Australian Open. That could be worth playing however skybet would only lay me 25p ew. Yet another illustration as to why I shall be retiring from this price chasing game. Bookmakers will not lay bets to anyone who has a hint of a successful strategy. There are not many bookmakers betting on the French Open but a few have Wimbledon books.
Aggie has a grass court tournament to her name as she won Eastbourne in 2008 before reaching the quarter final of Wimbledon (where she was beaten by Serena). She reached the same stage at Wimbledon in 2009 and then fell to Venus. I had a small bet just now with William Hill: Aggie Radwanska to win Wimbledon 2012, 1pt ew @ 100/1 and they immediately halved her price. Not a coincidence. Should you wish to follow me in on this highly speculative long term wager the price is still available at Blue Square and 888.com as I write.
Saturday, 8 October 2011
Tuesday, 4 October 2011
With just one month to go I think we need to hedge our position. We have staked 44.5 points on the event (including a 4pt ew handicap bet on PH which is touch and go for a place). We already have bets on the three jockeys that can win. Assuming the handicap bet is a loser, our potential profits stand at:
Hanagan +78.5pts; De Sousa +7.5pts; Fallon -18.5pts.
Therefore I am having a maximum 20pts win @ 9/4 Fallon with Paddy Power. This price is available with seven other bookmakers tonight (only Ladbrokes differ by quoting 7/4). I have chosen PP because of the possibility of a concession (eg if it was a dead-heat they might payout on both in full!). I have assumed De Sousa is too far behind to overtake both his opponents.
The revised position is now as follows:
Hanagan +58.5pts; Fallon +26.5pts; De Sousa -12.5pts.
If you've been following the bets on my website you'll know why it has become much more difficult to win. If you are new to the blog and do not hold the substantial winning positions on Hanagan I would not recommend that you have a maximum bet on Fallon. However he is worth a bet @ 9/4 to a small stake even if you are not involved in the jockey portfolio.
Bet record can be found here: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php
Friday, 30 September 2011
Tuesday, 27 September 2011
Monday, 26 September 2011
Full record of bets posted here: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php