Friday, 31 October 2014

Obviously a price cut by Sky'bet'

At 0:33 this morning Skybet cut Obviously from the 16/1 advised to 12/1.  Ironically I didn't have my bet with them because I'd already backed the horse @ 16/1 with Coral but with inferior place terms (1/5th). So either they were reading my blog around midnight (unlikely) or a follower of the blog had a bet @ 16/1 around that time. This is not a high profile selection so I doubt whether the price change emanated from another source. 16/1 is still available elsewhere.

Anyway when my selection leads into the straight, this is the powerhouse that will probably be stalking him with two furlongs to run:

Such a magnificent looking animal and that is the only reason for publishing this picture of the favourite!

Thursday, 30 October 2014

Breeders' Cup Mile (Turf)

Have had a bet in the penultimate BC race - it's not run until 23:40 our time Saturday night. Two against the field for me. One American-trained selection which should be quick out the box and has run creditably in this race before. The other a filly trained by Alain de Royer Dupre and (apparently) Soumillon's only ride at the BC:

01:11:2014 23:40 SA 1pt EW Obviously @ 16/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3) BOG NRNB
01:11:2014 23:40 SA 1pt win Veda @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

Three points staked.

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Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Southampton update

You may be surprised by the plunge on Southampton to finish in the Premier League top four yesterday evening. For example Ladbrokes cut from 6/1 to 4/1. The market move was not a result of my morning blog post and my follower(s) sticking on! A well known tipping site recommended a maximum bet on the south coast side around 16:30 yesterday nearly six hours after my post.

Despite the relatively easy start for Southampton, I think their stats read quite well. Everyone is talking about their striking prowess (20 in nine). Equally impressive though is their defensive record. They have conceded just five goals - fewer than any other team in the whole of the (four-division) football league.

So there we have it. If you took the 6/1 you've had a value bet and that's not just my opinion....

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Southampton - Premier League

There's no doubt Southampton are the surprise package of the season. Even though we are only one quarter through the season their tally of 19 points from nine matches is impressive. With Chelsea and Man City certain to finish in the top four, there are effectively two further places up for grabs. I think Southampton have a sporting chance of remaining in the top four and have backed them today - at what I consider generous odd of 6/1:

3pts Southampton to finish top four in Premier League @ 6/1 Boylesports

(Also available with Ladbrokes)

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Sunday, 26 October 2014

X-factor update

My main selection Lauren (taken at 11/2) has drifted to 7/2 in the light of increased support for the favourite Andrea to around 6/4. I still don't see him as the winner but could well be wrong of course! 

Bad news with the Groups' match bet. OTY were stitched up by the running order singing second during the overlap time with SCD. Add to that the massive pimping of the dreadful eight-fold it means the latter are back to odds-on to win this category. If you took 9/2 OTY you could secure a guaranteed profit now by betting the others @ 4/6 with Ladbrokes. I'm sticking with OTY though as I only have a small bet on the quartet. 

Fleur, recommended to small stakes at 14/1, did well last night and has been trimmed a couple of points. I've not backed her EW so have just decided to have a small bet on her to beat the other three in her category as follows:

1pt Fleur to win "Top Overs" @ 5/2 Betfred

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Saturday, 25 October 2014

Doncaster - Saturday

Disappointed with yesterday's result after my selection was heavily supported late morning. Two against the field in the sprint today to small stakes: 

15:15D 0.75pt win 0.5pt place Demora @ 14/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4
15:15D 0.75pt win 0.5pt place Elusivity @ 20/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4

2.5pts staked.

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Thursday, 23 October 2014


We are nearing the end of the flat season. I'm having a couple of plays at Donny as this meeting has proved profitable in the past. One race tomorrow and another on Saturday. On Friday I'm tackling the very tricky 22-runner 6f handicap with just one selection. I'm going for a soft ground performer ridden by a seven pound claimer. The jockey is Rachel Richardson who I think is quite useful and well worth her claim. She won on the selection at Ponte and Ripon earlier this season. I've had:

15:30D 1.5pts win 1pt place Fast Shot @ 20/1 Coral BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4.

2.5pts staked. 

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Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Richard Hughes

Hughes has landed my 8 pts @ 5/2 wager placed back in August. Although the flat season has not yet finished, RLM has declared he will have no more domestic rides this term. All major bookmakers have paid out on RH - including Coral.

This 20 pts profit has increased the calendar year profits to 136 pts or 31%.

It has been a low staking year compared to 2012/3 for reasons already explained. Nice to be well ahead though.

Full details here.

Paddy Power stewards

Paddy Power has cut the price of Pelle TGS to 16/1 and changed the place terms from EW 1,2,3,4 to EW 1,2,3.

According to the company this happened at 11:33 nearly two hours after I had my bet/blogged the details. Nothing strange in that you might think - despite this being a major football market it surely couldn't be affected by the small number of people that read my blog?

Having checked the terms and conditions of my bet, however, I noticed Paddy Power has recorded it as EW only 1,2,3. I have contacted the company to complain and have been told it will be amended. If you have had a similar bet I suggest you check the details.

The price (20/1) and ew 1,2,3,4 is still available with skybet as I write.

Premier League TGS (2)

Danny Welbeck has started rather slower than anticipated but at least he is a shorter price now than that taken (66/1) at the beginning of September. Unfortunately Arsenal have huge injury problems which is not helping his cause. Aguero scoring four for MC in a single match is no help either! 

I've had a second bet on this market in the hope and belief that it's not all over yet. Costa and Aguero lead the way on nine goals. The surprise package this season is Southampton and they are scoring plenty of goals. Pelle scored twice in their 8-0 mauling of Sunderland and should have had at least a hat-trick in the 80 minutes he played. The number of bookmakers offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 is drying up with the majority offering three places now. Pelle is currently joint third on six goals and I have had:

1pt EW Pelle to be Premier League TGS @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

(Also available Skybet)

Two points staked.

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Monday, 20 October 2014

Erect Kiosks

I'd been watching the marvellous Gillian Anderson in A Streetcar Named Desire from the Young Vic, so thankfully I had no opportunity to see the x-factor results show. 

I was rather surprised to learn that the dreadful Stereo Kicks had managed to find themselves in the bottom three. As a result they have drifted to 36 on Betfair whereas OTY are currently 29. As a consequence the top group betting is now close. 

Here is an update on the prices taken on Thursday:

Lauren to win 11/2 now typically 3/1.
Fleur to win still 14/1 in places.
OTY to win 40/1 EW now 25/1 is best EW price.
OTY top group 9/2 now 6/5 best price. 

A long way to go but chances of a winning return...


Saturday, 18 October 2014


Ascot looks interesting from a spectator point of view but not so clever for punting with the ground described as heavy, soft in places. So with that in mind I've had two bets in the most difficult race - the lucky last - where it's 10/1 the field! 

First choice is David O'Meara's Fort Bastion who we were on at the last Ascot meeting. Ran a poor race in first time visor, now in first time cheek pieces. The other selection is made primarily because of the ground but also the jockey...

16:45A 0.75pts EW Fort Bastion @ 25/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)
16:45A 0.5pts EW Bold Thady Quill @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

(NB BTQ is currently 33/1 with WH and Boyles but they offer only four places EW).

Stakes kept to a minimum on this potentially difficult day for punters.

Total 2.5pts staked. 

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Thursday, 16 October 2014

X-factor shite

I was not intending to have a bet but having watched the dreadful programme for the first time this year last weekend I have decided to get involved. Reason being I think the favourite is worth opposing. Surely after one week of the live shows 6/4 is far too short with a total of 14 acts still involved. Therefore I am opposing Andrea Faustini as I believe he may have peaked too soon. My main selection is Lauren Platt at 11/2 available with Betfred and others, plus a small bet on Fleur East:

3pts win Lauren Platt to win x-factor @ 11/2 Betfred
1pt win Fleur East to win x-factor @ 14/1 Betfred

I see that 'Sofabet' put up ''New Boy Band" at 11/2 as the most likely winner ahead of the live shows. (Incidentally they are now called Stereo Kicks - ludicrous name.) Big drifter on betfair and now available at 12.5 after just one week of the live shows. Can't have an eight-timer - ridiculous concept. So I'm going to oppose them too by backing the only other group left in the competition as follows: 

1pt win Only The Young to be top group @ 9/2 Betfred
0.5pts EW Only The Young to win x-factor @ 40/1 Coral (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Total six points staked.

Don't know yet whether I will be having a bet at Ascot on Saturday. Looks like the ground will be very heavy if the meeting goes ahead. Probably decide Saturday morning. Things going well recently though with 7/1 and 11/1 winners tipping the accumulative win % for 2014 above 28%. Happy days.

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Monday, 13 October 2014

Joni Mitchell albums for an incredible £2 each!

I won't be buying this collection. But that's because I already have everything she has recorded. But this collection is such extraordinary value I thought it was worth bringing it to your attention. It features her TEN studio albums recorded between 1968-1979. And yet it costs only £21.17 post free from Amazon...

Click here: Joni Mitchell studio albums

Saturday, 11 October 2014

Newmarket - Cesarewitch

Only one race of interest today. That's the big handicap at Newmarket. I've had small bets on two horses that have not won on the flat for three years! However both have finished second over course and distance. The first selection was beaten a neck in the trial last month. The other poke was second last year in this race:

15:50New 1.5pts win 1pt place Big Easy @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)
15:50New 0.75pts EW Waterclock @ 50/1 Boylesports BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked. 

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Thursday, 9 October 2014

England v San Marino

England as you probably know are 1/100 to win this match. But what will the score be? I've played the following scores with Paddy Power who are offering a money back special:-

0.75pts England to win 4-0 @ 8/1 Paddy Power 
1pt England to win 5-0 @ 7/1 Paddy Power 
0.75pts England to win 6-0 @13/2 Paddy Power 

Should the above be losers, stakes will be refunded (as a free bet) if Welbeck scores the first goal (up to £100 apparently). This is the default option but you can choose a different scorer if you wish. 

I've also backed Welbeck to score a hat-trick at 6/1. Might seem a short price but this is the top price - he is as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Scored two in England's last match - away to Switzerland - so why not three here!

1.5pts Welbeck to score hat-trick against San Marino @ 6/1 Betfred

Total staked four points. 

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Sunday, 5 October 2014

Weekend results

No good at Ascot: loss 3.5pts.

Moviesta ran a great race to finish third beaten a couple of heads in the Longchamp sprint: -1pt

Flintshire ran a good race to finish second in the Arc. Returning 7.25pts. Profit on race 2.25pts. Only consolation here is I would never had backed the winner. Didn't think she could come back.

Friday, 3 October 2014

Longchamp - Sunday

Having given some more thought to the Arc I'm going to add two more selections now rather than wait until tomorrow or Sunday. Ruler Of The World is coupled with Treve and Ectot in the PMU so I have backed Dettori's mount at a fixed price, there being no potential value on the PMU. I've also backed another French contender with W Hill. However it will still be worth comparing the PMU prices with those on offer with UK bookmakers on Sunday because of the expected money for the three Japanese contenders which could distort the PMU market.

I have also had a shot at the Prix De L'Abbaye, an impossible race run over less than five furlongs. Here are the additional weekend selections:

Sun 13:00L 1pt win Moviesta @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Sun 15:30L 2pts win Avenir Certain @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
Sun 15:30L 1pt win Ruler Of The World @ 16/1 Coral BOG

The two French races are incredibly competitive so don't be surprised if I draw a blank! As for my earlier Ascot post for tomorrow, Pricewise has gone for Chill The Kite so its price has naturally been shaved. The Sporting Life judge, Ben Linfoot, names Fort Bastion amongst his choices so that one's price has been cut too! So at least taking the earlier prices on offer was the right thing to do whatever the outcome!

Incidentally Gina Harding told us last night that Flintshire's trainer Andre Fabre "had a twinkle in his eye" when she spoke to him about his chance of winning the Arc. I suspect though that the twinkle may just have resulted from being interviewed by Gina! Still at least he didn't say he didn't fancy its chances........

Ascot Saturday

Have had a couple of plays in the big handicap at Ascot tomorrow. The main selection is wearing a visor for the first time and is having his first run for David O'Meara: 

15:50A 2pts win Fort Bastion @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:50A 1.5pts win Chill The Kite @ 16/1 Coral BOG

I will also be having some plays on Sunday's Arc. The market will be very interesting on the day because one would expect the Japanese horses to be heavily backed on the PMU. I would also expect the EW terms from the UK bookmakers to improve. Some are currently offering only 1/5 the odds 1,2,3 even though there are 20 runners and it will be 6/1 or 7/1 the field. Boyles at least are 1/4 1,2,3,4. For now I have had:

Sun 15:30L 1pt ew Flintshire @ 25/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) BOG  

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