Sunday, 30 June 2013

Tennis tomorrow

With regard to Lisicki v Williams tomorrow I have taken Sabine to get a set at a decent price with WH. It is a tall order to expect SL to win the match but 10/1 remains a very attractive price for her to achieve this. Whatever the result it has the makings of being a cracking encounter:-

2pts Serena W to beat Sabine L by 2-1 in sets @ 6/1 William Hill

Both horses no good today. May have a crack at Pontefract tomorrow. 

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Sunday horses

Salisbury today, have missed the value on the first selection so will have to hope the SP is a little better:

15:30S 4pts win Macdillon @ 5/1 Coral BOG

17:40S 5pts win Just Isla @ 15/2 Betfred BOG 

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Lisicki v Williams

Sabine Lisicki looked very impressive in her victory over Sam Stosur this afternoon. After dropping the opening set she completely dominated the match with heavy serving and powerful ground strokes. This is her favourite surface as can be seen from her win-loss record on grass: 23-8 (74%). Of all active players (who have played at least 25 matches on the surface) this percentage is only beaten by Serena, Venus and Sharapova. Her stats are better than previous Wimbledon winner Kvitova and also former finalists Radwanska and Bartoli.

For the above reasons I think Lisicki is one of very few players who has a chance against Serena - if she can bring her A-game to their encounter on Centre Court Monday.

As I write Betfair is showing 11.5 for Sabine which, after commission, is pretty close to 10-1.

I have had:

4pts win Sabine Lisicki to beat Serena Williams @ 11.5 Betfair

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Saturday, 29 June 2013

Saturday horses 4

Lastchancelucas is a non-runner in the 20:15D so I have backed this one instead:

20:15D 4pts win Sejalaat @ 9/2 Paddy Power BOG 

Saturday horses 3

Decided not to wait for 15:00 as the other horse I am interested in at Newcastle has been strongly supported. It won the race last year (when we were on I think) in desperate ground and will relish the conditions today:

15:50N 2pts win 1pt place Memory Cloth @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

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Saturday horses 2

Lingfield and Newcastle:

18:20L 3pts win Pharoh Jake @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

18:55L 3pts win Wishformore @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

14:40N 2.5pts ew Johannes @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

I may have another bet at Newcastle and if I do it will be published after 15:00

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Saturday horses

First bets today are from Chester and Doncaster:

14:45C 3pts win Rusty Rocket @ 6/1 Betfred BOG
14:45C 2.5pts ew Decision By One @ 12/1 William Hill BOG (14/1 VC)

19:50D 3pts win 1pt place Victoire De Lyphar @ 15/2 William Hill BOG

20:15D 3pts win 1pt place Lastchancelucas @ 15/2 Betfred BOG

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Friday, 28 June 2013

Friday horses

Don't fancy a lot today, just having a small bet at Doncaster:

15:35D 1pt ew Gold Roll @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Friday horses

One winner yesterday - Woody Bay - which paid 2.6-1 after the rule 4 deductions. Plus a non-runner so 12.8 points returned for the 13 points staked.

Looks like a low key day today. I will publish again between 14:30 -15:00 if I am going to have a bet.

Thursday, 27 June 2013

Thursday horses 2

A bet for Newcastle this afternoon:

17:30N 2pts win Rich Forever @ 15/2 Betfred BOG 

Thursday horses

At Hamilton and Leicester today:

18:10L 3pts win Welease Brian @ 3/1 William Hill BOG (100/30 VC)

19:50H 3pts win Tussie Mussie @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

20:50H 2pts win Sir Pedro @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG (also VC)

21:10L 3pts win Woody Bay @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

Eleven points staked.

Possible further bets later.

Wednesday, 26 June 2013

Wednesday wrap

Just back from amazing event at the Ludlow Brewery: Andy Kershaw one man show, incredible stuff.

Quite a recovery on the horses today with SDS lasting home on the best of the day to win @ 20/1 (BOG) then the next one went really close @ 22/1 (ew third) and even this evening's selection at Kempton finished second at 16/1 in  a seven horse race.

Profit on the horses today = 46.5pts.

As far as the tennis goes, a bit of a disaster with the two big ew bets going down  - if I was to offer one bit of advice it would be think carefully before following my tennis bets at the moment. Fortunately the horses are still earning plenty for the blog. And at least Gulbis got past Tsonga.

Cilic was yet another withdrawl and didn't strike a ball in anger after I put him up. Who knows with all these shocks perhaps Laura will win the whole thing for us @ 200/1!

Hamilton and Leicester tomorrow but it will have to wait for the morning.

Wednesday horses and tennis

Very disappointing yesterday with Rex Romanorum attempting to lead all the way and getting chinned on the line by a short-head. Backed from 12/1 to 7/1 too.

Today some bets at Salisbury and Kempton:

15:50S 2pts win 1 pt place Asatir 14/1 Boylesports BOG (or VC)

16:55S 1pt ew Tregereth @ 25/1 Coral BOG 

20:20K 2pts win Angel Way @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

In the tennis Mugray is being talked up and I must admit looked top notch in his opening match. He is as short as 1/3 to win his quarter which seems very short about him winning the next four matches. I've taken an interest opposing him as follows:

2pts Cilic to win fourth quarter men's singles @ 16/1 Bpoylesports 
1pt Gulbis to win fourth quarter men's singles @ 33/1 Boylesports

Gulbis of course has a tough match-up against big jo-willy today. The winner of this match could then possibly play Cilic if they all get this far for the opportunity to play Mugray. Just a small interest - well Boyles don't  lay big bets do they? - So all one can have is a small interest!

Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Tuesday horses

Poor day yesterday. Horses beat and then large staking ladies' selections nearly came unstuck with Vika going through on one leg. Money for her next opponent I see which is a worry. Pova looked impressive though.

And of course Jamie (B)lee(ding) Hampton looked exhausted against Sloane..

Beverley today:

15:00B 3pts win Last Destination @ 8/1 William Hill BOG
15:00B 2pts win Rex Romanorum @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked. That's it for today.

Monday, 24 June 2013

Monday horses 2

21:20T 3pts win Lees Anthem @ 6/1 Coral BOG
21:20T 1.5pts ew Mcmonagle @ 12/1 Coral BOG

Six points staked.

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Monday horses

14:45W 2pts win 1pt place Lager Time @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Thirsk to follow

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Wimbledon - ladies ew bets

I have had two ew bets today on the ladies' singles, the most likely outcome for which is just a very small win. Those bookmakers who are offering 1/2 odds to reach the final offer some value however because Serena (in the top half of the draw) is such a short-priced favourite (4/9 typically). It is hugely odds-on that either Sharapova or Azarenka will reach the final, potentially to play Serena of course. I have had these two bets: 

5pts ew Sharapova to win Wimbledon @ 13/2 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)
5pts ew Azarenka to win Wimbledon @ 8/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1/2) 

(17/2 VC Vika if available to you)

Total stake 20 points.

If Pova is the losing finalist the return is 22.25pts, with Vika it's 25pts. A very small potential profit for a risk of 20pts so you should think carefully before following me in! Obviously you have to get the above prices as a minimum and the place terms must be 1/2 odds. The big carrot is the tournament win of course and this is a free hit if one of the above two reaches the final. If by some miracle Serena is not on the other side of the net we have a good bet!

Horses to follow shortly..

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Saturday, 22 June 2013

Time for a Joni moment..

"Everything comes and goes
Pleasure moves on too early
And trouble leaves too slow
Just when you're thinking
You've finally got it made
Bad news comes knocking
At your garden gate
Knocking for you"

I'll be back!

Wimbledon quarter betting

Here are my thoughts on the quarter betting. First of all the women's tournament. In the third quarter Pova is 1/4 to win this section. Beyond that it's pretty open. In fact Woza is second favourite in most lists around 10/1. You will probably know that Jamie Hampton beat Woza at Eastbourne yesterday in three sets. Jamie Hampton is 33/1 to win this quarter and deserves a bet. She could however go out in the first round as she faces her compatriot Sloane Stephens who will almost certainly start favourite for their match. I think it's worth taking a chance with Jamie at the price. She certainly won't be 33/1 if she wins Eastbourne today:

3pts win Jamie Hampton third qtr ladies' singles @ 33/1 Betfred 
also 1pt win Pironkova third qtr ladies' singles @ 40/1 Betfred 

In the second quarter I like the look of Simona Halep who has come on a lot in recent months and is playing the final in Holland as I write:

3pts win Simona Halep second qtr ladies' singles@ 16/1 Betfred
also 1pt win Petkovic second qtr ladies' singles @ 40/1 Betfred


1pt win Makarova fourth qtr ladies singles @ 40/1 Betfred

Don't like the prices much in the men's so just had couple small bets first quarter:

1pt win Tomas Berdych first qtr men's singles@ 6/1 Betfred
1pt win Tommy Haas first qtr men's singles @ 20/1 Betfred.

That will do me. Eleven points staked.

Saturday horses 2

19:20H 2pts win 1pt place Tom Sawyer @ 16/1 Betfred BOG
19:20H 1pt win 0.5pt place Royal Bajan @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

19:35L 3pts win 1pt place Bubbly Ballerina @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG

Additional bets in Wokingham:

16:25A 1.5pt ew Elusivity @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
16:25A 0.5pts ew Palace Moon @ 40/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Total 12.5 points staked.

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First bets Saturday

First bet this morning had to be with William Hill who are offering 9/1 Duke Of Firenze in the Wokingham at 16:25. This price will only be available for a short time (from 8:30am) hence the early post as close to 8:30 as possible. If you intend to take the price, the best option is to bet through the Racing Post app as there is a concession in place which is money back as a free bet if it finishes second:

16:25A  3pts win Duke Of Firenze @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

(If you cannot get 9/1 I would take 8/1 with WH or Coral)

RLM aboard the above of course. He has a fine book of rides today and could overhaul my ante-post pick JOB who doesn't have much to shout about. I have had:

2pts win Ryan Moore to be RA top jockey @ 5/2 Paddy Power

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Wimbledon - men's

Will be taking a look at the quarter betting in both singles competitions tomorrow. Meanwhile a speculative outright bet in the men's singles:

1pt ew Tomas Berdych to win men's singles @ 66/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1/2)

Clearly the bottom half is the tricky half with Nadal v Federer and Murray v Tsonga the seeded projections. Djoko looks to have the best draw and according to the seeding is due to meet Berdych in the quarter-final. The latter went out in the first round of the French Open coming up against an inspired Monfils. He has a good grass court game however and beat Djoko in the semi when he reached the Wimbledon final in 2010.

He is generally around the 40/1 mark so even with the reduced place terms is worth this small play.

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Friday, 21 June 2013

Ascot 2

Additional bet in the last:

1735A 1pt ew Highland Colori @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6) BOG

As you see PP are offering 1/4 odds the first six places. Trouble with these promos is they don't want to lay a decent bet so just a point ew will have to suffice.

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Wimbledon ladies

Here is my first (of many probably) long-priced poke for the ladies' tournament:

0.5pts ew Jamie Hampton @ 325/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2) NRNB

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18:50G 2pts win Belle Bayardo @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG (9/2 VC)
18:50G 1pt ew Pharoh Jake @ 20/1 Betfred BOG

20:55G 2pts win My Sweet Lord @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG (7/1 nosportingbet)
20:55G 1pt ew Talqaa @20/1 Coral BOG

Eight points staked.

Maybe one more bet Ascot.

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The draw today. Should be very interesting for different reasons. In the women's singles Serena is around 1/2 to win it so that opens up to potential ew bets in the other half of the draw. Last year we were on Aggie-Rad at 100/1 ew so it shows that big priced selections can make the final in the women's competition.

Less so in the men's event. However we had a winning French Open thanks to Ferrer making the final in Paris @ 28/1. This was result was partly because of Nadal's slide in the rankings and all interest today will be on where the number five seed is drawn.

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Thursday, 20 June 2013

Thursday results/Friday horses

Another winning day thanks to Hakuna Matata obliging @ 7/1. There was a late plunge on track for this one as it was backed from 13/2 to 4/1. Simenon almost won the Gold Cup. But Cats Eyes was a massive drifter and would not have been a selection had I known the field would cut up to just four runners.

As for tomorrow I fancy an obvious one in the last at Ascot. RLM on Enrol. Not a brilliant price in such a big field but nevertheless I have had a reasonable bet:

17:35A 4pts win Enrol @ 7/1 Betfred BOG

Incidentally if you have a VC account take the 7/1 with them as if the selection loses and R Hughes is in the first five then you will get your stake back as a free bet (up to £25). Probably have a bet or two at Goodwood at some point tomorrow.

Let's hope the good week continues. Could be a lot worse - we could be following Pricewise who has given 0 winners and 20 losers at Royal Ascot already and there are still two days to go. No doubt one will pop in @ 25/1 but which one!

Thursday horses

No opportunity to post anything from last night's meetings unfortunately. However great results from the two selections at Hamilton with a winner and a very close second at 16/1.


17:45R 2pts win Hakuna Matata @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG
17:45R 1pt Straight forecast Size to beat Hakuna Matata 

18:20L 2pts win Cats Eyes @ 9/4 Paddy Power BOG

After his creditable run at Chester I think Simenon could win the Ascot Gold Cup:

15:45A 2pts win Simenon @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Wednesday, 19 June 2013


15:30H 1.5pts win 1pt place Isle of Beauty @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

16:10H 2pts win Springheel Jack @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

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Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Tuesday wrap

A complicated day but a winning one. In the end I laid out 20pts, six of which turned out to be staked on two non-runners. We had a narrow winner at Thirsk at 13/2 and an ew place at Kempton at 14.4/1 (18/1 less 20p r4). So a total return (inc nrs) of 33.35pts and therefore a 13.35pts profit.

JOB started with a winner and his main rivals Moore and Hughes both drew blanks so a good start on the top jock market but a long way to go.

I will probably post some bets before nine in the morning, however I am on the move tomorrow so the evening stuff may have to wait until much later in the day.

Until then a little bet in the Royal Hunt Cup. Given the success on day one of Irish trainers and jockeys I like this one with Pat Smullen on board:

15:45A 1pt ew Moran Gra @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Not every bookmaker is offering first five places, a useful concession.

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Royal Ascot

Going to blog one bet today at RA as I like the ew terms in the 15:45. There are only nine runners and in addition there are question marks over the first three in the betting. I have had:

15:45A 1.5pts ew Dundonnel @ 16/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Three points staked.

If you decide to have an ew bet in this race choose a bookmaker that offers 1/4 odds ew terms.

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Tuesday horses 2

Kempton race now a mess as four non-runners, win only selection included. One further small wager here:

21:10K 1.5pts win Dark Invader @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG


15:30T 1pt ew Imperator Augustus @ 25/1 Coral BOG
15:10T 3pts win Meandmyshadow @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

18:20T 1pt ew Lucky Lodge @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG
18:20T 3pts win Quaroma @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

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Tuesday horses

Disappointing results at Kempton, another crack today:

21:10K 1.25pts ew Exzachary @ 18/1 William Hill BOG
21:10K 3pts win Broughtons Charm @ 11/2 Paddy Power BOG

Total 5.5pts.

Thirsk to follow.

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Monday, 17 June 2013

Monday horses

Kempton selections:

17:00K 2pts win West Leake @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
17:00K 1.5pts ew Perfect Pastime @ 14/1 Coral BOG

17:30K 2pts win Nepalese Pearl @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
17:30K 1.5pts ew Brynford @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Ten points staked.

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Sunday, 16 June 2013

Weekend wrap

After a disappointing Saturday and a loss of 4.2 points a great recovery today. Imperial Glance cruises home in the last at Salisbury for an 8/1 success (SP only 3/1!). It was a 4pt bet so 32pts profit on the race, 25pts net profit on the day and thus 20.8pts profit on the weekend.

Kempton tomorrow...

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Sunday horses 3

Final race:

17:35S 4pts win Imperial Glance @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

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Sunday horses 2

16:40D 1.5pts ew Klynch @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG

One more race to follow.

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Saturday, 15 June 2013

Sunday horses

Interesting racing at Salisbury and Doncaster tomorrow. Will probably play three races in total. Early bet at Salisbury:

14:50S 4pts win Powerful Wind @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

More to follow tomorrow.

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Saturday horses 2

One winner this afternoon (Morawij) at a short price - 2/1 reduced to 1.7/1 with r4 - for a return of 10.8 points. Sister Guru wouldn't go in the stalls so four points refunded there. Rocket Rob pretty much last with a furlong to go was beaten 3/4 length in second at the post, which was disappointing as we were on at 5.4/1 and it was returned 100/30 favourite. 

A loss of 2.2 points so far.

As for Leicester this evening, one bet in the first and then maybe another later:

18:05Le 1pt ew Stonecrabstomorrow @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

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Saturday horses

Better late than never, or perhaps not?

Sandown action:

14:55S 4pts win Morawij @ 2/1 Betfred BOG

15:30S 4pts win Rocket Rob @ 6/1 William Hill BOG
15:30S 2pts ew Sister Guru @ 22/1 Spreadex fixed odds 

16:05S 3pts win Burning Blaze @ 5/1 William Hill BOG
16:05S 1pt ew Intimidate @ 28/1 Coral BOG

Leicester later. Total 17 points staked.

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Friday, 14 June 2013

Friday horses 3

Not very keen on Chepstow and don't want Hughsie winners (for the jockeys' championship!) despite that small bet as follows:

19:15Ch 2pts win Basle @ 5/1 Betfred BOG

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Royal Ascot

I don't expect to have many bets at RA next week. However I will probably play the big handicap sprints looking for big-priced miracle winners. 

I do like the price on JOB to be top jockey though. Coral offer 11/4 whereas WH are 7/4 and PP just 5/4. The latter price is obviously influenced by the Irish market. I have had:

6pts win Joseph O'Brien to be top RA jockey @ 11/4 Coral

11/4 is also "available" with Stan James.

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Friday horses 2

21:05G 1.25pts ew Kimberella @ 25/1 William Hill BOG
21:05G 1.5pts win Freddy With A Y @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

Four points staked.

Will not look at Chepstow until I see the effect of the forecast rain. If I do have a bet it will not be until after the first race has been run at the earliest.

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Friday horses

14:10S 2pts win 1pt place Prince Regal @ 10/1

Goodwood to follow.

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Thursday, 13 June 2013

End of the day

Today we have been looking around two houses: "Mendips" and 20, Forthlin Road. Unless you are a Beatles' fan this may not mean anything to you. They are, of course, the childhood homes of John Lennon and Paul McCartney respectively. A superb tour organised by the National Trust.

Very little time to concentrate on the horses but the one race I highlighted early this morning produced a non-runner and the winner. Eland Ally didn't go but Rusty Rocket did and won by a neck. Hopefully you may have upped the recommended stake from 0.5pt because the other selection didn't run! I took 14/1 which became 10.5/1 after a 25p r4 was applied. This compares favourably with the SP which was just 11/2.

So a good couple of days despite the reduced time available to analyse races.

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Thursday horses

At Haydock:

20:50H 1.5pts win Eland Ally @ 8/1 Betfred BOG
20:50H 0.5pts win Rusty Rocket @ 14/1 Boylesports BOG

That's all today following the success at Kempton yesterday.

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Wednesday, 12 June 2013

Wednesday horses 2

Been a bit out of touch since early morning. Have been taking a look at Marc Chagall at the Tate (Liverpool) so have not seen any races and in addition have missed some value on a couple of horses I was thinking of backing. One that hasn't been backed is El Mirage (19:10Ke) that I took 12/1 about. You can get 16/1 now which looks like ew value.

In the other Kempton races I like:

20:40Ke 0.75pts ew Shifting Star @ 25/1 Coral BOG

21:00Ke 3pts win Fiducia @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG 

Wednesday horses

15:30Be 2pts win 1pt place Thrust Control @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

15:50H 1pt ew The Rectifier @ 14/1 Coral BOG

19:10K 2pts ew El Mirage @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

More later.

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Tuesday, 11 June 2013

The Special One

VC has paid me out on Mourinho returning to Chelsea (16/1) from my (closed) account (I had to request my winnings - they weren't paid automatically when the announcement was made last week - and in addition I had to send photos of a bank statement and my passport before settlement was made). But at least they have paid up!

This means an additional 48 points have been added to this year's profits. I have re-invested just 1.5 of those points on the Special One having a miracle season at Chelsea. Who knows what might happen with new chaps in charge at both Manchester clubs? Or of course he could not do very well at all...

I have had:

0.5pts Chelsea to win PL/FACup/LCup @ 125/1 William Hill
0.25pts Chelsea to win PL/FACup/ChL @ 150/1 Coral (200/1 VC if you are still on there!)
0.25pts Chelsea to win all four trophies @ 750/1 Coral
0.5pts Chelsea to win exactly (any) three of the four trophies @ 50/1 Paddy Power

Total 1.5pts invested.

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A bet in the last at Salisbury:

17:35S 1.5pts ew Judd Street @ 20/1 Coral BOG

Three points staked.

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Sunday, 9 June 2013

Sunday review

Back from tennis to learn of Rafa's easy win. But also to discover it has been another profitable day with the horses. Two winning races out of three at Nottingham, thanks to Demora w 4/1 and Woody Bay w 13/2 (5p R4, SP only 7/2).

Fifteen points profit on the day.

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Sunday horses 2

15:15N 1pt ew Borough Boy @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
15:15N 1pt win La Sylphe @ 17/2 Boylesports BOG

That's it for today. 

A friend once said to me if you ever have to choose between playing or watching tennis you should always choose the former. So even though there is a (remote) chance of copping a four-figure sum I won't be watching Ferrer v Nadal. In any event the final is likely to be rain interrupted so I expect them to still be playing when I return!

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Sunday horses

At Nottingham:

15:45N 2.5pts win Demora @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG
15:45N 1pt ew First In Command @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:45N 2pts win Woody Bay @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG
16:45N 1pt ew The Ginger Berry @ 18/1 William Hill BOG

One more race to follow.

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Saturday, 8 June 2013

Lucky numbers at Chester

Hopefully you deduced I was keen on the two selected races at Chester today, as I staked a hefty 17 points on the two races. With Lucky Numbers obliging @ 8/1 and Dutch Masterpiece going in at the 4/1 taken we copped a return of 47 points and a profit on the day of 20.5 points after deduction of the losers at the other two tracks.

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Saturday horses 2

Other bets:

14:35Be 1pt ew Comptonspirit @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

16:55Be 4pts win Polish Crown @ 9/2 WilliamHill. BOG
16:55Be 0.75pts ew Blue Clumber @ 50/1

17:00H 1pt ew Satsuma @ 16/1 Coral BOG

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Saturday horses

Have had a crack at the Chester sprints as follows:

14:45Ch 4pts win Roker Park @ 7/1 Coral (BOG)
14:45Ch 3pts win Lucky Numbers @ 8/1 Coral (BOG)

17:05Ch 3pts ew Strange Magic @ 14/1 Paddy Power (BOG)
17:05Ch 4pts win Dutch Masterpiece @ 4/1 Paddy Power (BOG)

Bets from two other tracks later.

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Friday, 7 June 2013

French Open summary

Thanks to Ferrer doing the business in his semi-final today, the French Open is a winning tournament for us. On the men's event we won 26.25 points (after all losing bets have been deducted including the ten point Tsonga hedge). In the women's tourney we lost 7.5 points (the only winning return being Serena's two sets to one win over Kutz). So a total profit of 18.75 points on the whole event.

You will notice that I have written the above as though the tournament has finished but of course we still have the matter of four points on Ferrer for the Championship @ 28/1. I have assumed this is a loser for the purposes of the above calculations. I will happily revisit the figures should the unlikely happen and Ferrer beat Nadal on Sunday.

Ferrer is currently quoted around 7/1 for the match - I thought he might be a 10/1 shot. At least Nadal had the much harder semi. The HTH is 19-4 to Nadal so not a lot of encouragement there! However the last two times they played (Madrid and Rome) Ferrer played very well in defeat capturing a set on each occasion.

Friday horses

17:45Ba 3pts win Fathom Five @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

20:15H 2pts win Nocturnal Affair @ 13/2 Coral BOG

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Ferrer v Tsonga

Have needed to have a bet on Tsonga to win tomorrow. The ew ante-post bets I placed on Ferrer/Federer were designed to produce a no loss situation in their semi, however Fed's loss to Tsonga has scuppered that. We are left with Ferrer and four points @ 14/1 to reach the final. So a potential return of 60 points. The stakes on Fed (5) and Ferrer (8) I have potentially protected by having:

10pts Tsonga to beat Ferrer @ 2.32 Betfair Exchange.

After commission this price is around 2.25 or 5/4. So should Tsonga win the match the above bet wins 12.5pts - more or less the stakes invested on Fed/Ferrer each-way. 

If Ferrer wins tomorrow's match then the return on these three bets is a net 37 points profit (plus a remote chance of winning the final and a much larger return). 

We could really do with Ferrer winning tomorrow as the women's event was very poor for us. Obviously I would not recommend you backing Tsonga in tomorrow's match unless you have backed Ferrer each-way @ 28/1 or 33/1 as advised before the start of the tournament on 22 May. 

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Thursday, 6 June 2013

Thursday horses 2

One race at Thirsk:

14:40T 1.5pts ew Alpha Tauri @ 16/1 William Hill BOG 
14:40T 1pt win Steelcut @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

Four points staked

Thursday horses

Sandown today:

18:50S 2pts win Alnoomaas @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG
18:50S 1pt win Asian Trader @ 3/1 William Hill BOG

19:55S 4pts win Altharoos @ 4/1 Betfred BOG (9/2 Ladbrokes)

Thirsk later.

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Wednesday, 5 June 2013

Wednesday horses

At Kempton:

20:30K 3pts win Khobaraa @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

21:00K 2pts win The Gatling Boy @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

More later.

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Tuesday, 4 June 2013

Mixed results

Unsatisfactory day in many ways. However Serena winning 2-1 @ 13/2 paid for the losers in the Ripon race. The ew poke in that race was beaten a head (of course) into fourth place @ 14/1. Rats!

In the men's tennis, Ferrer cruised into the semi-final where he will meet home-hope Tsonga. With Fed out it means we are reliant on DF to reach the final to show a profit on the men's tournament. I invested 8pts on Ferrer and 5pts on Federer so I would like to at least cover those stakes with a bet on Tsonga to win his semi. The market has not settled yet but we should get up to 13/8 for the Frenchman. Of course Ferrer in the final means a return of 60pts so some sort of hedge can be justified. Will post tomorrow.

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Serena Williams

It's about time someone gave SW a match. Perhaps that player will be Svetlana Kuznetsova today. The HTH is 6-2 to Serena however. They have not played since 2009 but in their last four matches SK won at least a set on three of those occasions. In fact she beat SW on this same court in 2009. I have played SK to win at least a set as follows:

1pt win S Williams to beat S Kuznetsova 2-1 in sets @ 13/2 William Hill
0.5pts win S Kuznetsova to beat S Williams @ 15.5 Betfair Exchange (before commission)

1.5pts staked.

Tennis betting has not been much good so far in the French Open with the Li Na exit in particular doing serious damage. However we have the 1/2 odds each-way strategy still running on Federer (14/1 and 16/1) and Ferrer (28/1) and hopefully both players will win their quarter final matches today to set up a no lose situation semi-final. Tsonga, who is playing well, looks a danger to Fed.

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Monday, 3 June 2013

Tuesday horses

Both horses placed today without ever looking like winning their respective races. Just one race tomorrow at Ripon I am interested in:

15:30R 2pts ew Osteopathic Remedy @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG
15:30R 1.5pts win Dubai Dynamo @ 6/1 Coral BOG

Total 5.5pts staked.

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Monday horses 2

Money back on Ghostwing as finished fourth, here's hoping all 16 go in the last at Leicester:

17:45Le 1pt ew George Benjamin @ 12/1 William Hill BOG 

Monday horses

Possible bets from Leicester and Chepstow although not particularly keen on either card. One bet at Chepstow, any other bets will follow after 15:00 race:

15:00Ch 2pts win 1 pt place Ghostwing @ 8/1 Coral BOG

Three points staked.

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Why is Radwanska 66/1?

Aga will start favourite in her quarter-final against Errani who is at best 33/1 to win the tournament (20/1 in places). This is of course SW's half of the draw which is a big problem unless Kutzy can take out the American as she did here in 2009. Anyway you have to take the value when it's offered:

1pt ew Aga Radwanska to win French Open @ 66/1 Totesport (1/3 odds 1,2)

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Special K

If you look at the stats of previous matches between Nadal and Nishikori then a prediction of a Nadal win 6-4 6-4 6-4 would seem the most likely outcome. That's because the last six sets they have played have finished 6-4 to Nadal. The Spaniard leads the HTH 4-0. However they have never met on clay and Nadal has been far from impressive in his first three matches here losing a set on two of those occasions to low-ranked players. 

I have had a small play on the Japanese with Coral as follows:

1pt Nadal to win against Nishikori by 3-1 in sets @ 9/2 Coral

1pt Nishikori to beat Nadal @ 14/1 Coral 

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Sunday, 2 June 2013

Mourinho appointed at Chelsea

According to the Premier League Mourinho has been appointed Chelsea manager. If anyone out there followed my February 2011 bet @ 16/1 for this outcome with VC I would be obliged if you let me know when you get paid out by the non-layer. My account was closed last year and I may therefore have to chase them up for my winnings. Obviously knowing that they have settled the market would help that process.

This will mean 48 points profit for the blog which is handy to say he least.

No bets today.

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Saturday, 1 June 2013

Saturday horses 3

Bit of a recovery today with the Doncaster second choice winner which was returned at 16/1 (23.0 on betfair close to the off). Also we had the 40/1 place in the Derby which pays 10/1 - as it was quarter the odds first three.

May play at Newcastle but will not be posting any bets until after the first race has been run.

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Saturday horses 2

Late play at Epsom as it looks like minimum 16 runners in 15:15 race:

15:15E 1.5pts ew Top Cop @ 18/1 William Hill BOG

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Saturday horses

Completely useless selections yesterday. Last and second last, so usual wealth warnings apply to these:

15:45D 2pts win Lighting Cloud @ 8/1 Coral BOG
15:45D 1pt win Diescentre @ 12/1 Coral BOG

18:25L 1.5pts win Charming @ 12/1 Coral BOG

18:55L 1.5pts ew Jack My Boy @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

Possible bets from Newcastle later. Can't resist a couple of big priced ew selections in the Derby given books offer 1/4 odds 123 and the favourite is short. One of these selections is Pricewise (not the reason for picking it). If you can bet with VC do so as the same prices are available and money back as free bet if fav wins:

16:00E 1pt ew Galileo Rock @ 40/1 Bet365 BOG
16:00E 0.5pts ew Mirsaale @ 100/1 Bet365 BOG

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