Having said yesterday I would not recommend a hedge on Errani I have changed my mind. Although Masha played really well yesterday in beating Kvitova her performance in recent Grand Slam finals has not been good. She lost this year's Australian final to Azarenka in straight sets and also lost last year's Wimbledon final when favourite to beat Kvitova.
Errani is playing without fear and has had incredible results in this tournament against players she has never beaten before (Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Kerber and Stosur).
I am also painfully reminding myself of the 2011 US Open final when Serena was an overwhelming favourite to beat Stosur (and we were anticipating a major pick-up on the American).
Incredibly Stosur has only won three WTA singles titles in her 12-year career - including the US Open. That's why she is worth opposing when she is a short price. That's another subject though.
For now I have to go with Ladbrokes' 7/2 Errani to win the match on Saturday. Although this is a match bet we can classify it as an outright wager because if there is an early retirement the bet is settled on the winning player.
4pts win Errani @ 7/2 to beat Sharapova (Ladbrokes)
The outright book total stakes therefore rise to 25. A Sharapova win now nets a 15 point profit. Whereas a win for Sara produces an overall profit of seven points.
No good on the horses yesterday. Fields disrupted by many non-runners, including three of my selections despite selecting them quite late in the morning. There may be one small bet today at Bath to follow.
Sent from my iPad
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