I like to play the draws in the first leg semi-final matches in the six league play-off ties. Statistically the draw in these matches (historically) is 40%-ish i.e. a 6/4 chance when 9/4 or greater is usually available with bookmakers.
Last year I just played/blogged 20 draw trebles all six matches. The first three matches ended in stalemate and I thought we might be in for a mega payout. I can remember following the final three matches whilst in Gdansk and the disappointment when all three remaining matches produced positive results. We still achieved a small profit though with just the one treble landed.
This year we cannot place an all encompassing bet because the Championship first leg matches are 3/4 May with League 1/2 matches not taking place until 11/12/13 May.
Therefore I have plunged on the Championship matches as follows, hoping one of them draw at least to contribute to a bet on the remaining four fixtures the following weekend:-
8pts West Ham v Cardiff to draw @ 3.3 with Totesport on 3 May
8pts Blackpool v Birmingham to draw @ 3.4 with Totesport on 4 May
4pts double at the above prices.
Twenty points staked.
Sent from my iPad
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