Stan not the man

Couldn't cope with GGL's game today. Can he adjust to being the hunted rather than the hunter? Not this week anyway. Stan's exit (in theory) aids Mugray's chance. But who could be lurking in the quarterfinal - none other than Mugray's conqueror in the Davis Cup - Fognini (should they both get that far). 

Mugray is around 20/1 to win the tourney, Fab is around 100 points bigger. I have had:

0.75pts ew Fabio Fognini to win French Open @ 125/1 Spreadex (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts staked

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A wolf between two Kings

Early start for me today, unusual on a Sunday. Well, most days actually. My first Hay session was scheduled for 10am. It's a 30-mile drive. Got there in plenty of time to listen to Anthony King talking about government blunders. Extraordinary to think he is still Professor of Government at Essex University. He was there, in the same role, when I was a student at Essex in the '60s. As eloquent as ever. He said he was very fond of Hay and described the atmosphere as one of good-fellowship. That struck me as an accurate observation.

Oh, and pretty much the biggest government blunder of the century is the poll tax.....

By 11am the place was heaving. I've never seen so many people here despite visiting for several years. I took a stroll down to Market Square to listen to the live music. Conveniently one of Ludlow's popular trios was playing: Grey Wolf. Well worth a listen if they are playing in a town near you:

After that it was back to the main site for some superb Spanish tapas and then a session by another King: Mervyn. Comparing the financial crisis of 2008 with that of 1914. Two more sessions completed my cerebral day. Jeremy Paxman on the Great War (understandably completely sold out) and to finish the Joan Bakewell lecture on why history matters.

Genie wins her first title

Today:

Billy Bragg with Roy Bailey at Hay last night:

Tremendous stuff!

French quarter selections

Been for a trot around the shops to try and get a bit of value. Shops packed with Scoop6 punters.

I think the areas to concentrate on are the ladies' second and third quarters. The first three in the outright betting: Serena, Pova and Li Na do not play in either.

Ladies' second quarter

I think you can make cases against the first two in the betting. A-Rad is favourite, despite preferring a faster surface, next best is Kerber who is out of form. CSN has a chance but I have supported two of my outright rags as follows:

3pts win Bouchard @ 6/1 Coral

Reached the semis in Australia and not been great since - until this week. Still chasing her first title but that could change this afternoon as she is in the final of Nuremberg. 

2pts win Pennetta @ 12/1 Coral

Good recent record in grand slams. Plus:

1pt win Cornet @ 25/1 Betfred 

Has been in quite good form and likes the big (home) stage.

Ladies' third quarter

Halep and Ivanovic head the market here. Incredible that Halep is up to four in the world. This however brings with it expectations. Halep is also recovering from injury. Ana has been in great form and could go well in a tournament she has previously won. She is up against the improving Garcia in the first round which should be tough. Who will be more nervous? Difficult to say: Ana nervous type, Garcia in front of her home crowd. However Coral are a stand out 40/1 Garcia to win this section whereas Ivanovic is no bigger that 3/1. The market says Garcia will have a first round exit, but the value is with the French player:

2pts win Garcia @ 40/1 Coral

Others choices in this section:

1pt win Kuznetsova @ 16/1 Coral 

1pt win Giorgi @ 28/1 Coral

Turning to the men's event, just a couple of small interests:

First quarter: 2pts Ferrer @ 9/2 Coral. Third quarter: 1pt win Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 35/1 Paddy Power

Total quarter betting stakes = 13 points.

French Open quarters

First of all we got the draw we were hoping for in the ladies with the inform Sharapova being drawn in Serena's quarter. The Russian looks a terrible bet now given her record against the number one and not surprisingly has drifted to 7/1. She's 9/2 to reach the semis.

I'm going to have some quarter winner bets today but will have to visit the relevant shops as I can't get a decent bet online. For example I couldn't resist a fiver - yes £5 - on Muguruza to win Serena's quarter at the 100/1 Fred was offering. Cut to a now top price 40/1 immediately after my huge bet was accepted! So I'm reluctant to make that a recommendation at the much lower price.

Will post later if what I see as value is still available.

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French Open prospects

The second grand slam event gets under way on Sunday. Here is a review of my ante-post portfolio to date:

Men's singles

With both Nadal and Djoko showing their well being in the Rome final yesterday it looks like these two players are extremely likely to meet again in Paris in the final. 

I have backed the two Swiss players who are currently world ranked three and four and therefore should be seeded in opposite sides of the draw.

Stan, who made the Aussie Open a winning tournament for me (small ew @ 50/1) is the better prospect. 

I am on @ 16/1 ew here whereas the best ew price as I write is 9/1. He has been in very mixed form recently and I don't think he, or his fellow countryman, has a huge chance of lifting the trophy.

Total market exposure is six points.

Ladies' singles

Li Na is the main chance here. As I had hoped/anticipated the Chinese holds the world number two ranking so will be seeded in the other half of the draw to Serena. The key to Li Na's chances could rest with where Sharapova is seeded. The Russian is ranked eight and therefore should be seeded seven with the news today that Azarenka is a non-runner. If she was to be seeded in Serena's half that would greatly increase the chance of Li Na reaching the final. I am on @ 10/1 and the best ew price is currently 6/1. 

Aside from the above I have four bets on outsiders @ odds between 66/1 and 150/1. They will, at least, all be seeded as they are ranked 13.19, 28 and 29. Not worth going through them individually just to say the exposure here is 5.5 points!

Total market exposure is 13.5 points.