Yes I know he is 6'3'', but I am talking about his SPOTY price. He is currently 1/20 on betfair to back (1.05) and 1/16 (1.06) to lay. I have already laid him at a shorter price than this. Here are some of the reasons he may not be the shoe-in that everyone thinks:
1. He is not attending the SPOTY awards show on Sunday night as he is training in the US. As far as I am aware the other nine contenders will be in attendance.
2. The Scottish vote may be diluted because the final on Sunday night coincides with the final of x-factor. Unless there is a shock and Luke is in the final two, Nick, the Scottish boy, will be in the two-horse final on Sunday night.
3. A recent poll shows the Murray vote quite close to Mo Farah recording 24-28%. This is bad news for my McCoy bet at 4/1 in the w/o Murray market despite the latter price contracting to no better than 7/4 since I suggested it. Is McCoy under represented in the poll?
Here is the poll in question:
So you could consider backing Mo at 50.0 on betfair or laying Murray at 1.06. You could also consider getting out of my 4/1 McCoy bet if you are on, at around 2.80-ish. I am sticking with the latter bet though. There is one further bet I have played, however, and that is as follows:
10pts Murray to achieve less than 50% of the vote @ 6/4 William Hill
Last year Bradley achieved 30% of the vote in a field of 12 which of course was much stronger
than this year's field. Cavendish achieved 49% in 2011 and McCoy 41% in 2010.
The racing world is supposed to be getting behind McCoy but who knows whether they will. However with the above poll showing no more that 28% in favour of Murray I have to be on less than 50% at 6/4.
Good luck if you get involved.
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