Santo Clause

Just a week ago it looked like Romney would sweep to three consecutive state victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Then two days ago the official certified result in Iowa was published and Santorum was declared the winner rather than Romney.

Some major bookmakers reacted quickly to payout Santo backers (having previously settled on Romney as the winner shortly after the provisional result was announced). These bookmakers included Will Hill, Ladbrokes and Bet365. Others, including betfair, are considering their positions. The settlement seems to hinge on the clause "official result" in bookmakers' rules. I don't think there is anyway that a win by eight votes, which was announced shortly after the provisional count, can be considered a final or official result. Bookmakers obviously settled in haste. The Iowa rules allowed until 18 January for the relevant paperwork to be submitted before the official result was calculated and announced, so surely all the remaining bookmakers who have yet to settle on Santo will be forced to do so.

I did not recommend a Santo bet in Iowa on the blog but did put him up @ 18/1 for the nomination. Unfortunately his support has drained away since Iowa and he was a huge price to win Carolina earlier today.

Things are looking a lot better for Newt Gingrich, however, who was a country mile behind Mitt a week ago. I put up Gingrich @ 9/2 for SC (now big odds on) and 18/1 for the nomination (currently no more than 3/1). If he should snatch Carolina from Mitt tonight then 18/1 for the nomination could be looking good: since 1980 the Republican winner in South Carolina has always gone on to take the Republican Nomination.

It's suddenly not so great for Mormon Mitt. Perhaps he will have to visit planet Kolob for inspiration. When I told my wife this evening that Mormons believe God lives on planet Kolob she said: "Pull the other one, I can see what it spells backwards"!