An excellent panel for last night's very well attended Cheltenham preview night. There was no owner, trainer or jockey on the panel, which was a positive for me. You may know from my ten rules of betting that I take no notice of their opinions. That's because they are invariably biased towards the horses they own, train or ride.
I'd estimate over 200 attended and it was good to catch up with friends I'd not seen (in some cases) for many years.
In terms of Cheltenham bets my portfolio to date is quite small. I've listed below the bets I've had since my return from London. I've been fortunate to profit from the last couple of festivals so here's hoping for at least a couple of winners:
First of all, not a lot of value in the 'specials' that I can see. Last year I took 3/1 12 or more Irish trained winners (there were 12). This year it's evens the same bet. I've just played one in the jockey championship against the very likely winner Ruby Walsh:
2pts Barry Geraghty to be Cheltenham top jockey @ 8/1 Coral
Here are my other bets which are a combination of my views and those of the panel:
TUESDAY
Supreme Novices Hurdle 1pt ew Qewy @ 14/1 William Hill (concessions if unplaced) 1/4 odd 1,2,3
Arkle 0.5pts ew Three Kingdoms @ 20/1 Betfred 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Mares 1.5pts ew Polly Peachum @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1,2,3
WEDNESDAY
RSA Chase 2pts win The Young Master @ 7/1 Betfred
Fred Winter 2pts win Zarib @ 12/1 Betfred
THURSDAY
World Hurdle 2pts win Zarkandar @ 5/1 William Hill
World Hurdle 2pts win Whisper @ 14/1 Betfred
JLT 2pts win Valseur LIdo @ 6/1 Betfred
FRIDAY
Triumph 2pts win Petite Parisienne @ 9/1 Betfred
A Bartlett 2pts win Blacklion @ 12/1 Betfred
Finally in the GC:
Gold Cup 5pts win Djakadam @ 11/1 William Hill
Gold Cup 1pt ew Boston Bob @ 25/1 Paddy Power
Please note ALL of the above bets are NRNB - be careful which bookmaker you choose because not all firms offer this concession at the time of writing.
Good luck if you get involved. But remember these races are hugely competitive and there is a very good chance we may draw a blank.
Total stake 29 points.
How comes certain bets are each way, and some win only?
ReplyDeleteGenerally speaking I prefer to bet win only rather than EW.
DeleteI choose EW when I think the place market offers value. This could depend on the number of runners in the race (eg an eight runner field) and/or the price of the favourite (eg Mares' race where Annie Power is odds on).
In the end it's a personal preference whether to back win or EW. Interestingly the popular tipster 'Pricewise' very rarely has an EW bet. He would prefer to have two win bets in the same race rather than one EW bet. That's an approach I take sometimes too.
Yeah I know how it works with each way value depending on the number of runners in the race, but even though the markets are very mature already there will still be non-runners and it's impossible to accurately predict how many will run. I see your point on the price of the favourite, it is only logical that if there is a banker in the pack there is one less place to fight for. Thank you for your reply, all the best mate.
ReplyDelete