The two selections in the 19:40 Dundalk yesterday were heavily backed. Cottrell was punted from 5/1 to 5/2f and finished a disappointing fourth. The other choice, Iontas, was 9/2 at the off from 16/1 taken! It finished last.
The problem with beating the market by such huge margins - and not collecting - is that bookmakers hate you beating SP. They think you know more than they do and will heavily restrict your accounts, or worse still close them even if you are a loser on balance.
Long-term readers of my blog/website will be aware that I "know" nothing! I never take any notice of owner/trainer/jockey comments or "information" of any kind and my selections are made solely on my analysis of the race in question.
Turning to this weekend's x-factor final, we are in a strong position with 14/1 poke Fleur now the 4/11 favourite to win. The second favourite, Ben, we have @ 9/2 for a zero loss position. The other runner, Andrea, was the reason I got involved in the first place. He was 6/4 favourite when there were 14 runners and I suggested the first wagers. Now he's showing at 27 on betfair. I told a blog reader a couple of days ago (when the Italian was 18) I wasn't going to cover my bets as I'd always been of the firm opinion that he can't win. However, for the sake of a half-point I have had the following:
0.5pt Andrea to win x-factor @ 25.0 Betfair
(Although 27 is showing as I write there is very little liquidity so I have booked the bet @ 25.0)
(Although 27 is showing as I write there is very little liquidity so I have booked the bet @ 25.0)
Hopefully the favourite will oblige for around nine points profit on the event.
Sent from my iPad
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