Sunday 15 July 2012

Olympic medals

You may have read the RP Olympic article on Saturday. I was spooked by the headline: "On Track For A Record Haul". This was a discussion of GB medal prospects. The leading Italian statto Luciano Barra predicts that GB will achieve 62 medals compared to 47 in Beijing. Fortunately, for the purposes of the substantial "low" bet I have already placed on GB gold medals, he sees a problem with GB exceeding their last gold haul of 19. Most bookmakers have shifted their markets down to 22-23 so having gone <25 we still hold the value play.

Barra's complete GB forecast is 19/27/16 (62) which is very encouraging for my supplementary wager on silver being the top GB scoring medal (placed @ 15/8 with Stan James). Betfair now has a market on this - I have just hoovered up all the 3.1 silver. If you want to play wait for someone to put it up again would be my advice. Incidentally the bookmakers' market on total GB medals is around the 62-63 mark so no betting angle apparent.

What interests me also is Barra's predictions for US and China medals. He predicts an extraordinary low total for the US - only 78 including 35 golds. For China these projections are 100 and 43. China to win most golds can be backed at 6/4 whereas China to achieve most medals won is close to 5/2. The only other predictor I have seen has China golds at only 34 and US higher at 39, so I am not going to play the "gold" table. The overall medals in this second survey, however, are 92 China, 88 US. Given this is a two-horse race and both forecasts put China on top (albeit one only marginally) I think China is a play at the prices. If you are allowed to bet with Sportingbet you can get 5/2. I have played with Betfair at a fraction under 5/2 but will book this bet, as follows, at a lower price for the records:

12pts China to win most medals at 2012 Olympics @ 9/4 Coral (or Bet365)



Victoria Pendleton - a possible gold medalist for GB cycling






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