Friday 25 November 2011

ATP London update - 2

Berdych duly beat Ferrer tonight but not by the score I envisaged. However this means our three outright selections have reached the last four. We only have a small bet on Berdych - one point @ 29/1 - but importantly his presence in the last four means that Djoko is on his way home. In fact in my first post on this tournament I suggested we should avoid the world numbers one, two and three because of their busy seasons and recent injury concerns. Incredibly none has reached the semi-finals.

Even though he has a very difficult match ahead we have to have a saver on feisty Ferrer. He will be back tomorrow to play Federer at 14:00 in the first semi-final. The H2H? Just the 11-0 to the inform Swiss player. The other semi is at 20:00 - Tsonga v Berdych ( H2H 0-1)

Let's first review our potential profits (16pts portfolio so far):-

Federer 12pts @ 3/1 - potential return 48pts; profit 32pts
Tsonga 2pts @ 14/1, subsequent 1pt @ 12/1 - potential return 43pts; profit 27pts
Berdych 1pt @ 29/1 - potential return 30pts; profit 14pts

I have just placed 1.5pts @ 16/1 Ferrer with Ladbrokes. Obviously a Ferrer tournament win now returns 25.5pts for an overall eight point profit on the tournament. (Those of you with Sportingbet accounts can get 18/1 Ferrer however I do not bet with that company).

Our revised tournament profit will now be as follows:

Federer 30.5pts; Tsonga 25.5pts; Berdych 12.5pts and Ferrer 8pts.

Enjoy the semis and the final. Let's hope for that Paris repeat - Federer v Tsonga final!

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