World Cup semi-final matches

The knock-out stages of this World Cup have been very tight. In the round of 16 five of the eight matches were drawn at 90 minutes and no team scored more than two goals (including extra-time when played). 

In the quarter-finals although only one of the four matches was drawn at 90 minutes, only five goals in total were scored in 390 minutes of play. It would appear that there is no outstanding team amongst the final four as it's 5-2 the field to win the World Cup. 

The expectation is that the semi-final matches will be incredibly close and I have therefore backed the two matches to finish all-square at 90 minutes. My bets are:

2pts Brazil v Germany to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Bet365

2pts Argentina v Netherlands to draw at 90 minutes @ 11/5 Bet365

1pt win double at the above prices (9.4/1) Bet365

Five points staked

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Profit update

Profits for 2014 now updated online including World Cup losers to date. Still got a chance of a few quid back with 7/1 Germany bet. Annual returns here: 

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php  (34% profit all bets)

As for Wimbledon just a small profit on the tourney: stakes 17.5 returns 21 profit just 3,5 points

 

Men's singles update

I was going to have a decent bet on Federer if they were going to start under the roof but that is not the case. Nevertheless I've had a bet on the Swiss as follows:

1.5pts Federer to win 3-0 sets  @ 13/2 Skybet

1pt Federer to win 3-1 sets @ 5/1 Paddy Power

2.5pts staked

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Wimbledon men's final

If I have a bet on the above I will blog the details shortly before the start of the match. It is due to start at 2pm.

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US Open 2

Well there we are both underdogs in the Wimbledon men's semis have lost and their prices for the US Open are significantly shorter than those taken yesterday. Dimitrov is a top price 25/1 after a credible performance against Djoko. He had three set points to take the match into a fifth set but it wasn't to be. Milos Raonic is a 40/1 chance to win the US Open following a straight sets defeat by Federer.

Turning to the ladies' US Open, there are doubts surfacing about the favourite Serena Williams. There are rumours in some quarters that the 2/1 favourite could be pregnant. Of the other leading contenders, Li Na could be set for a spell in the wilderness following the split with coach Rodriguez. Azarenka will need plenty of matches in the lead up to be a contender. 

I'm backing tomorrow's finalists for US glory as follows:

4pts Bouchard to win ladies' US Open singles @ 10/1 Paddy Power

1pt Kvitova to win ladies' US Open singles @ 20/1 William Hill

Five points staked.

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US Open

Given the improved performances of Dimitrov and Raonic at Grand Slam level I have taken a small interest (I am only laid small bets anyway) in the pair for the US Open. The market does not totally reflect their improved performances during this Wimbledon fortnight. 

Nadal and Murray, who have performed moderately at SW19, still represent a big % of the books as they are priced as low as 15/8 and 5/2 respectively in places. 

Even if neither underdog is successful tomorrow, I cannot see their price(s) drifting significantly. I have had:

1pt ew Raonic to win US Open men's singles @ 80/1 Skybet 1/2 odds 1,2 (NRNB)

(Also 80/1 Coral but not NRNB)

1.5pts ew Dimitrov to win US Open men's singles @ 40/1 Betfred 1/2 odds 1,2 

(Also available Betvictor if you can bet there)

Five points staked. 

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Wimbledon update

Dimitrov has reached the semi-final thanks in part to a lack lustre display from Murray. So that lands my 6/1 wager on Dimitrov to win the second quarter. 

Stakes and returns on the tournament to date are as follows: 

Total stakes 13.5 pts Returns 21 pts Profit 7.5 pts

(Total stakes include all outright, quarter and match bets.)

I've just re-invested a small portion of the overall profit on Grigor to win the tournament @ 8/1 with Boylesports (very similar price available with betfair at the time of writing):

1.5pts Dimitrov to win Wimbledon men's singles @ 8/1 Boylesports 

Obviously the (negative) Mugray portfolio of bets rolls on as he has not won a grand slam to date or reached the final of any sort of tournament for that matter. Indeed this defeat could see him slide outside the top ten making things even more difficult for him. Presumably he will be off to the US soon for the American swing ahead of the US Open. We may have to have a saver at some point but no further action at present in this area. 

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