ATP Rome

What has been extraordinary about this tournament so far is Nadal's underwhelming performances. He really struggled in his first two matches - against both Simon and Youzhny. Although neither underdog could get the result they were seeking they both went close. Had Nadal been in top form you would have expected straight set victories, but that was not to be the case. In fact Nadal traded at odds against in both encounters and it was only his tremendous will to win that saw him through. 

Now Nadal faces Murray. The latter has been below par too but it would not surprise me if Murray overturned the odds and beat Nadal tomorrow. The HTH is 13-5 in Nadal's favour and 4-0 on clay. However they have not played each other since 2011. Whoever comes through will play the winner of Dimitov v Haas for a place in the final. The young Bulgarian is starting to make a name for himself and I fancy him to beat the German veteran tomorrow. Both beat higher ranked players in the last round. Dimitrov downing Berdych and Haas getting past Wawrinka. 

Dimitov beat Murray in their only encounter so far in 2014 and went down in four close sets to Nadal in the Australian Open in his latest meeting with the great Spaniard. 

So for me a small value play is Dimitrov each-way. I have had:

1pt ew Dimitrov to win ATP Rome @ 18/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)

(Available also at 18/1 with Ladbrokes)

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