Premier League run-in

With just ten games to go for most Premiership teams which has the easiest run-in? 

The answer is West Ham with the average position of their league opponents of 12.8. The hardest? That's West Brom with an equivalent figure of 8.4.

Can analysing these figures throw up a value bet? Take for example the top four betting where I already have what looks increasingly like a losing bet of 6/1 on Southampton. Ignoring Chelsea and Man City, five teams are competing for the two remaining top four positions. Their run-in stats are:

Tottenham 12.3 (points accrued 50)

Southampton 11.8 (49)

Arsenal 10.3 (54)

Liverpool 9.4 (51)

Man Utd 8.8 (53)

Man Utd and Liverpool have the third and fifth worst run-ins respectively. Tottenham and Southampton have the second and third best. 

That gives me a tiny bit of hope for my Southampton bet however they are not in form whereas Tottenham are. Liverpool are now inconvenienced by a FA Cup replay at Blackburn and have to face Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea in the league (latter two away). Man Utd will play Tottenham, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal in their closing fixtures. Arsenal or Man Utd will have the distraction of the semi-final of the FA Cup. 

How do they bet? Best prices: 2/9 Arsenal, 10/11 Man Utd, 5/4 Liverpool, 6/1 Tottenham and 8/1 Southampton. Man Utd and Liverpool look poor value when compared to 6/1 Tottenham so I've had:

4pts Tottenham to finish in top four @ 6/1 Bet365 

(Also available with Ladbrokes)

And what of the relegation battle? You could consider West Brom at 20/1+ but they may have just done enough sitting now on 30 points. Hull are three points lower - currently 15th - five points above the drop zone. Hull have the second most difficult run-in (8.6 factor) facing Chelsea, Southampton, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Man Utd in their ten remaining fixtures! I've had: 

2pts Hull to be relegated @ 7/2 Coral (generally available)

Total six points staked.

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