Tipsters

As you may know I do not follow any professional tipsters. I do however take note of the selections of certain tipsters as they can influence a market in which I am planning to have a bet, particularly if they are on a successful run and/or are high profile. Two such examples are the Racing Post "Pricewise" column and Raceclear.

The perils of following a high-profile tipster should be all too evident. When said tipster is on a winning run it will be extremely difficult for you to obtain the recommended prices to your normal stakes. Conversely when a poor run comes along it will take nerves of steel - combined with blind faith - to continue following with any confidence. In other words it's an unsustainable process. (You won't have such problems if you choose to follow some of my bets as very few people read this blog!)

The current incumbent in the Pricewise hot seat,Tom Segal, is going through a horrid sequence. He has given 25 RP tips in 2013 and only one has obliged. This sequence culminated in three losing selections in the Betfair Hurdle today (two ante-post, one on the day). Earlier in the week he surprisingly selected Darlan at 11/10, the shortest price I can ever remember being recommended in the Pricewise horse-racing column. Tom's long term strike-rate is around 11% so he needs double-figure winners to popup every now and again to remain in profit.

My prognosis is that Tom will need to have a good Cheltenham otherwise I can see him stepping down (or being relieved of his duties) prior to the start of the 2013 turf season at the end of March.

Sent from my iPad