Something that is very difficult to do and my conclusion is do not read too much into it! Just have the confidence to take prices that you think are value. Monday we had a massive drifter - from around 6/1 out to 17.5 on betfair. Ran a reasonable race in finishing a close up fifth.
Today with Crew Cut it looked like things might go the same way. We took 8/1 (R4) yesterday and despite the field being reduced from 12 to nine runners, the selection drifted to around 15/1 on betfair shortly before the racecourse show. But this time the scenario was different it opened at 14/1 on-course and was supported back into 8/1. I couldn't resist topping up at 12/1 each-way.*
Well the first-time blinkers did the trick and the selection ran on strongly to land the spoils at a welcome 8/1 SP (BOG).
*I tend not to take racecourse shows but this is another "system" if you like called the market chaos theory. If you are going to take a price, take the first shortening show (in this case 12/1 following the move in from 14/1). Once a horse has shortened in the market it is more likely to shorten again than revert to a larger price. Follow a few racecourse shows and you will see what I mean.
Sent from my iPad
Sent from my iPad
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