AO tennis - further bets

A couple more bets before the tournament gets underway at midnight, although the first bet relates to a ladies' match scheduled for Tuesday:

4pts Muguruza to beat Kanepi @ 11/10 Paddy Power

In the men's tournament I am taking on Mugray in the tricky second quarter. This section also features Federer and Tsonga but I have had a small bet on the big serving John Isner who is in good form. These big serving players don't win grand slams (basically because they don't break serve frequently enough). However most observers are saying that the courts will play much faster this year which will suit the American giant. He is 10/1 in a place but 25/1 with Betfred:

1pt John Isner to win men's second quarter @ 25/1 Betfred

Good luck 

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Muguruza

No mug this young lady. Has won Hobart overnight beating Zakopalova 6-4 6-0. Like Pironkova she has come through qualifying to win the tournament. Unlike the Bulgarian however she has not beaten any top ten players as this was a much lower grade tournament than Sydney. Nevertheless you can only beat what is put in front of you and she has not dropped a set all week. Flipkins was her biggest scalp. 

She plays Kanepi (24 seed) in the first round of the AO which the bookmakers consider a coin toss. Yet Kanepi is 25/1 tops to win the fourth quarter, Garbine is 66/1. I have had:

1pt Garbine Muguruza to win 4th quarter ladies' AO singles @ 66/1 Paddy Power

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Price/ew terms alert

Please note that Paddy Power have changed their each-way terms on the ladies' tennis outright. They are now one of few bookmakers that offer 1/3 odds rather than the standard 1/2 odds to reach the final. So take a close look at the price comparison if backing each-way. They have also cut Sharapova from 11/1 to 10/1.

Skybet offers 11/1 (1/2 odds 1,2) Sharapova at the time of writing and would be the place to bet if you wanted to back the Russian each-way.

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Aus Open tennis

First of all a word on this morning's Sydney final. What a terrific win for the Bulgarian who is ranked 107. Takes out three top ten players in a row in straight sets. I admit I did it wrong on the price by taking 3/1. She was 7/2 moments after I posted and then drifted on betfair so that she was 5.5 when she hit the first ball in anger (starting the match with an ace).

On to the big one. 

The draws were made overnight and seem to have increased the chance of the favourites obliging. Djoko and SW are both now prohibitively priced around the 8/11 mark. When you have an odds-on shot this often throws up a value each-way bet in the other half of the draw. That would appear not to be the case in the men's event. Nadal, Delpo, Federer and Murray are all in the top half of the draw which hence looks impossible. Murray, for example (who lost to Hewitt in an exo this morning), would have to beat Federer, Nadal and Djoko - if the seedings held up -  to win the title.

I have taken a contrary view and just backed a couple of big priced players to small stakes in Djoko's half - who are capable of a big upset on their day:

0.5pts ew Wawrinka to win AO men's @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.75pts ew Berdych to win AO men's @ 66/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

In the women's event, the second and third favourites are in the other half to Serena. Vika is about half Sharapova's price. Yet their H2H is just 7-6 to Vika with Pova having won the last two encounters. I thought Pova played incredibly well when losing to SW last time. She hasn't beaten SW for ten years, but I still think she is the bet to reach the final ahead of Vika. Worth a small play I think:

2pts ew Sharapova to win AO  ladies' @ 11/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested 6.5 points.

WTA Sydney Final

Pironkova has had an amazing run to reach the Sydney final. She has beaten Cirstea, Lepchenko, Errani and Kvitova all in straight sets. Her form immediately before this tournament was no good at all. So why the improvement? Possibly has a lot to do with the speed of the court. According to Delpo it's playing like a grass court. And we all know how good the Bulgarian is at Wimbledon, having recorded two wins over Venus Williams for example.

As for her opponent, Kerber, a tough customer for sure. But in their only meeting Pironkova beat the German 6-4 6-1 in Doha in 2012. So I have to give Pironkova more than a 25% chance of winning to take her first title. I have had:

2pts win Pironkova to beat Kerber @ 3/1 Bet365

Ashes result

Good news overnight with the 5-0 result in Australia to start the year on a high. FA Cup a disappointment yesterday though with two of my four selections making an early exit.

Let's hope Everton and Southampton are kept apart in the draw later today, preferably with home draws!

http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php

Qatar Open

Shocks in this tournament Wednesday with Nadal and Gulbis now the only two still standing amongst the eight seeded players.

Murray was one of the casualties of course, squandering a set and a 3-0 lead against the German Mayer.

The betting is quite interesting as Nadal and Gulbis meet in the quarterfinal Thursday.  Nadal  is 1/4 to get past the Latvian but didn't look particularly great when dropping a set against the German Kamke. Problem with Gulbis is his 0-6 HTH against Nadal  and the 7/2 for him to beat the world No.1 looks a little short despite Gulbis running Nadal close on occasions.

However Coral price Gulbis @ 14/1 to win the tournament. Should he beat Nadal he would be the highest ranked player left in the event. Gulbis would be big odds on to get past a German qualifier (ranked outside the top hundred) in the semi and, I believe, favourite against whoever he met in the final.

That's a pretty long winded explanation as to why I have had the following small interest!:

1pt Ernests Gulbis to win Qatar Open @ 14/1 Coral