Aus Open tennis

First of all a word on this morning's Sydney final. What a terrific win for the Bulgarian who is ranked 107. Takes out three top ten players in a row in straight sets. I admit I did it wrong on the price by taking 3/1. She was 7/2 moments after I posted and then drifted on betfair so that she was 5.5 when she hit the first ball in anger (starting the match with an ace).

On to the big one. 

The draws were made overnight and seem to have increased the chance of the favourites obliging. Djoko and SW are both now prohibitively priced around the 8/11 mark. When you have an odds-on shot this often throws up a value each-way bet in the other half of the draw. That would appear not to be the case in the men's event. Nadal, Delpo, Federer and Murray are all in the top half of the draw which hence looks impossible. Murray, for example (who lost to Hewitt in an exo this morning), would have to beat Federer, Nadal and Djoko - if the seedings held up -  to win the title.

I have taken a contrary view and just backed a couple of big priced players to small stakes in Djoko's half - who are capable of a big upset on their day:

0.5pts ew Wawrinka to win AO men's @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.75pts ew Berdych to win AO men's @ 66/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

In the women's event, the second and third favourites are in the other half to Serena. Vika is about half Sharapova's price. Yet their H2H is just 7-6 to Vika with Pova having won the last two encounters. I thought Pova played incredibly well when losing to SW last time. She hasn't beaten SW for ten years, but I still think she is the bet to reach the final ahead of Vika. Worth a small play I think:

2pts ew Sharapova to win AO  ladies' @ 11/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested 6.5 points.