It's been a poor tournament for me so far with my two biggest bets (stakes) losing in the first round. Need something to go right in the tourney to get back on track. Remarkably I do have three of my four ladies' outsiders still running and what's more they are all slight favourites to win their next matches: Petkovic, Kuznetsova and Bouchard. Our best hope for a tournament win rests with the impressive Bouchard who is now a 9/1 shot to win the tournament having beaten Kerber - the number eight seed - for the loss of just three games yesterday. We have 66/1 each-way for the title and 6/1 for her to reach the semi-final.
This morning I have found what I believe to be a bit of value on Murray. I have had my bet and waited a while to see if the price would change as a result. It's still available as I write. Murray is around 4/6 to beat Verdasco today with whom he holds a 9-1 H2H. If he goes through I would expect him to be a similar price - or shorter - to beat Monfils or GGL. After that you would expect him to face Nadal or Ferrer in the semi and whichever Spaniard goes through to the last four they would surely be significant odds-on to beat the Scot.
I think that Murray is therefore no more than 3/1 to be eliminated at the semi-final stage. Betfred offers 5/1 this outcome. I have had:
6pts win Murray to be eliminated at the semi-final stage of FO @ 5/1 Betfred
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