Ashes to ashes?

You are in a strong position if you followed my bets and backed Australia to win the Test Series 4-0 and 5-0 (see blog entry 22 November).

During the fourth test, however, it looked as though the momentum had swung England's way. They were 116 runs ahead with ten wickets in hand at one stage. Consequently I am pleased to get to this point with 4-0 on the board and no other bets placed on the Ashes.

Of course we have not won anything yet and will lose if England win the fifth test which starts on Thursday. I am not keen on hedging unless I can see some value in the hedging opportunity. In this case I can see a bit of value because England are generally 7/2 (and 15/4 with bet365) to win the next encounter. I am happy to admit I don't know a lot about cricket however I have now saved on an England win, which seems to me more likely  than a drawn fifth leg. Most bookmakers disagree with this and make the draw a shorter price than an England win.

You should really only be having the following bet if you are on the 4-0 and 5-0 score lines:

4pts England to win 5th Test @ 15/4 Bet365 (i.e. would result in a  4-1 series win for Australia).

Thus we will have a winning start to 2014 with the placing of the above wager (as the bets will all be settled in January):

Australia 5-0 series win = 27.75 points profit
Australia 4-1 series win = 12.5 points profit
Australia 4-0 series win = 16 points profit

(Total outlay 6.5 points)

Let's hope England crumble again and we can start the new year with over 27 points profit on this event. Ashes to ashes indeed!