2013 Year end results

No more bets planned for this calendar year. Pleased to say it's been my most successful year and therefore not a bad time to reduce significantly blog bets activity. If you want to read more about this go to http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-details.php

Summary results for 2013: stakes 2,509 profit 794 (31.6%)

Full details: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

Accumulative results from December 2009:  stakes 6,162 profit 1,423 (23.0%)

Wishing you all success with your bets in 2014 and beyond.

Ashes to ashes?

You are in a strong position if you followed my bets and backed Australia to win the Test Series 4-0 and 5-0 (see blog entry 22 November).

During the fourth test, however, it looked as though the momentum had swung England's way. They were 116 runs ahead with ten wickets in hand at one stage. Consequently I am pleased to get to this point with 4-0 on the board and no other bets placed on the Ashes.

Of course we have not won anything yet and will lose if England win the fifth test which starts on Thursday. I am not keen on hedging unless I can see some value in the hedging opportunity. In this case I can see a bit of value because England are generally 7/2 (and 15/4 with bet365) to win the next encounter. I am happy to admit I don't know a lot about cricket however I have now saved on an England win, which seems to me more likely  than a drawn fifth leg. Most bookmakers disagree with this and make the draw a shorter price than an England win.

You should really only be having the following bet if you are on the 4-0 and 5-0 score lines:

4pts England to win 5th Test @ 15/4 Bet365 (i.e. would result in a  4-1 series win for Australia).

Thus we will have a winning start to 2014 with the placing of the above wager (as the bets will all be settled in January):

Australia 5-0 series win = 27.75 points profit
Australia 4-1 series win = 12.5 points profit
Australia 4-0 series win = 16 points profit

(Total outlay 6.5 points)

Let's hope England crumble again and we can start the new year with over 27 points profit on this event. Ashes to ashes indeed!

Mugray

Andy Murray is on the comeback trail Boxing Day following back surgery. Apparently his pre-season training has gone very well in America. He plays Tsonga in an exo tomorrow, a player against whom he enjoys an 8-1 HTH. He should therefore win comfortably if fully fit.

Away from the betting markets, I wish him all the best in his recovery as his continued success can only be good for British tennis in encouraging more people to take up the game. However when it comes to betting we must be logical and consider how difficult 2014 could be for him with Nadal and Djokovic seemingly so dominant. Any tournament in which all three are playing will, if the seedings hold up, require Murray to beat them both to win the tournament. 

I have had a number of bets which will be successful if he doesn't do very well in the coming year. 

All bets relate to Andy Murray performance in 2014:

4pts number of tournament wins under 3.5 @ 11/10 Skybet

1pt zero tournament wins @17/2 Skybet

1.5pts exactly one tournament win @10/1 Betfred

1.5pts exactly two tournament wins @7/1 Betfred

2pts no Grand Slam finals played @ 5/1 Skybet

10pts no Grand Slam tournament wins @ 5/4 William Hill

Total twenty points staked.

Long Run

My Xmas/New Year holiday horse punting is usually limited to a bet in the King George. Don't see why that should change this year. The attraction of the KG has been the relatively small fields in recent years with most bookmakers offering each-way odds of 1/4 odds 1,2,3. My record in the race is not very good however. My selection last year was tailed off and in 2011 my choice was third of seven thanks to a late withdraw reducing the field.

This year I have gone for Long Run, last year's winner and the 2011 runner-up. Bookmakers think he has gone and that may prove to be the case however he has been fitted with headgear for the first time and that may make a difference. I like "headgear for the first time" horses on the flat - where I specialise in races up to one mile -  but over three miles we may not see the same sort of improvement! 

5/2 a place is better odds than the eight-year-old's winning SP last year so I think it's worth a small play as follows:

1.5pts ew Long Run @ 10/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3) NRNB BOG 

Three points staked.

Big Apostrophe

Hate writing the name of this horse! He is having a comeback gallop today apparently. If he is back to his best you'd expect him to be odds on for his next couple of races. How many will he have this season if ok? Perhaps three?

William Hill go 5/1 he remains unbeaten this season which looks attractive. He has to run once for the bet to stand. I have had:

3pts Big Buck's to remain unbeaten 2013/2014 season @ 5/1 William Hill


Added at 22:41: Big Buck's (r) gallops at Exeter racecourse....


           

SPOTY result 2013

Just read on Twitter that Murray won with over 50% of the vote. That's a disappointment but it seems I was not the only one to think that he would score under 50%, as "under" was backed from the 6/4 that I took to odds on.

Better news in the w/o Murray market. Three contenders backed here with McCoy, who finished third, the biggest wager. But it was Halfpenny who popped up to take second place at the rewarding odds of 69/1. Only a half-point staked on Halfpenny but therefore a return of 35 points. Total stakes on SPOTY 14 points, profit 21 points.

In the end a good overall result.

Is Andy Murray too short?

Yes I know he is 6'3'', but I am talking about his SPOTY price. He is currently 1/20 on betfair to back (1.05) and 1/16 (1.06) to lay. I have already laid him at a shorter price than this. Here are some of the reasons he may not be the shoe-in that everyone thinks:

1. He is not attending the SPOTY awards show on Sunday night as he is training in the US. As far as I am aware the other nine contenders will be in attendance. 

2. The Scottish vote may be diluted because the final on Sunday night coincides with the final of x-factor. Unless there is a shock and Luke is in the final two, Nick, the Scottish boy, will be in the two-horse final on Sunday night.

3. A recent poll shows the Murray vote quite close to Mo Farah recording 24-28%. This is bad news for my McCoy bet at 4/1 in the w/o Murray market despite the latter price contracting to no better than 7/4 since I suggested it. Is McCoy under represented in the poll?

Here is the poll in question:

http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/two-horse-race-sports-personality

So you could consider backing Mo at 50.0 on betfair or laying Murray at 1.06. You could also consider getting out of my 4/1 McCoy bet if you are on, at around 2.80-ish. I am sticking with the latter bet though. There is one further bet I have played, however, and that is as follows:

10pts Murray to achieve less than 50% of the vote @ 6/4 William Hill

Last year Bradley achieved 30% of the vote in a field of 12 which of course was much stronger

than this year's field. Cavendish achieved 49% in 2011 and McCoy 41% in 2010. 

The racing world is supposed to be getting behind McCoy but who knows whether they will. However with the above poll showing no more that 28% in favour of Murray I have to be on less than 50% at 6/4.

Good luck if you get involved. 

I wish I was a fisherman, tumblin' on the seas....

I recommend you invest some of your winnings (just £22 in fact) on the "Fisherman's Box", a 6-CD boxed set from the one time Spiddal residents, The Waterboys. Massive value with 121 tracks in total. Available here:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00EQK5OG0/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Are you blinded by the brilliance ?  Are you dazzled by the light ?

X-factor shite

Well that was amusing. Luke traded at 1.04 (or maybe shorter) to be eliminated tonight (1/25). If you read the stuff on sofabet.com you would have come to the conclusion that he could not possibly get past Rough Copy in a sing-off. I am banned from posting on that particular website for criticising it once. So it gives me great pleasure to see the Teignmouth boy in the final and reward my little ew bet. The sole bet suggested on the blog this year to win the show.

Don't think he can possibly win it but not really bothered about that.

FA Cup

Regular readers will know that I like to pick out two or three teams at this stage of the season for the knock out competition. They will also know that they have done their money if that is all they have followed on the blog! We went to the final with Stoke @ 66/1 in 2011 but they of course did not win.

Anyway interest in this helps me get through the winter, which I hate. This is how I have bet following the third round draw:

5pts win Everton @  14/1 William Hill
3pts win Tottenham @ 16/1 Coral
2pts ew Newcastle @ 40/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)
1.5pts ew Southampton @ 33/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total 15 points. With the so called Big4 not looking the forces they have been in previous seasons, there must be a better chance of a winner further down the Premiership table. The above selections have home ties with the exception of Tottenham who are away to Arsenal. All is not lost however it being a local derby.

I think that's enough football for this week. And indeed this year.

Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my Hudl

World Cup group betting

Following the draw, I have pressed up on my outright selections to win their respective groups as follows:

Group B 3pts win Chile @ 11/2 Paddy Power

Group D 3pts win Uruguay @ 9/4 Unibet

Groups C/D 2pts win double Colombia @ 4/5 and Uruguay @ 9/4 Unibet

Eight points staked

Incidentally Ladbrokes have now come into line with their each-way offering. Needless to say they are no longer best price on all teams.

World Cup warning

Draw takes place at 16:00 GMT today. Ladcrooks have just advertised best price on all teams. If you are betting each-way though don't be caught out by their offer. They are betting 1/3 odds to reach the final whereas every other company offers 1/2 odds for the place terms.

Typical of Ladcrooks, trying to catch punters out with what appears to be a good offer but is clearly nothing of the sort for each-way players.

Sent from my Hudl

World Cup 2014

I was looking through my results at the World Cup and the Euro competitions this century and they are a bit better than I thought. Having said that, most success has come from backing or opposing teams in the group stages rather than in the outright markets. I seldom bet match results.

My best outright success came in Euro 2004 when I backed Greece at 66/1 for the tournament after they had won their opening match against the hosts Portugal. That was with Sportingbet, an account long gone now. The final clashed with a Bob Geldolf concert we attended and I can remember trying to listen to the match through a radio earphone whilst simultaneously enjoying the live music. You will recall no doubt that Greece beat the hosts again in the final, this time 1-0.

However I was not on Spain outright in Euro 2008/2012 or WC 2010. I did however have a bet at double figures on Italy to win the WC 2006. My main focus in the 2010 tournament was backing France to not qualify and finish bottom of their group. Those France bets featured on the blog by then of course.

I won't go into lengthy discussions about the outright bets I have placed for WC 2014 ahead of Friday's draw. You will know as much about the teams, and probably a lot more, than I do. Suffice it to say I have concentrated on the South American teams but from a value perspective I have swerved the obvious short-priced teams Brazil and Argentina. My value picks, two of which are seeded because of their FIFA rankings, are:

2.5pts ew Colombia @ 28/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts ew Chile @ 50/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

1pt ew Uruguay @ 33/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2) 

You could accuse me of playing with 'house money' here. And you are probably right to a certain extent. 2013 will be my best ever year punting (sureIy I can't lose much in the next three weeks!).

Ten points optimistically staked. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

The future of this blog

I have operated a free betting advisory service on this blog since December 2009. 

This has proved very successful to such an extent that some of my betting accounts have been closed or severely restricted as a result. The blog is showing an accumulative profit of over 20% (ROI) after four years. (Currently over 30% for 2013).

I started the blog partly in order to prove to a number of doubters, in a public way, that it is possible to make significant profits from betting. After four years I consider that objective well and truly achieved. Unfortunately it has led to my personal betting options being restricted further. Successful betting relies on achieving the best - or near best prices -  in the "village". Once these are no longer available to you the task becomes progressively harder - not impossible with a starting point of a 120% success rate  - just very difficult indeed.

Therefore I will not be offering a daily horse racing service in 2014 - as I did in 2013 and before. I will post occasionally if I have a firm opinion on a feature event and I have obtained the bet I require with one of my (few) remaining accounts. However I will continue with the policy of only posting bets at prices I have been able to obtain myself (as has been the case since the blog started.)

Finally, I wish all the punters who have followed me - and hopefully profited from my betting exploits - all the best with future betting. Keep finding the value!!