SPOTY

Now we know the final twelve. We have already lost money on the event before it starts as gold medalist Queen Vic is not in the final. In fact all but one in the final twelve is an Olympic gold medalist, the exception being Rory McIlroy.

Like Cavendish last year, Wiggins is a very short price. Unlike Cavendish though the opposition is a lot stronger and I think you could make a case for eight or nine of the twelve winning. I cannot believe Bradley is 2/5 and I am tempted to lay him as I did unsuccessfully with Cavendish last year!

My idea of the winner is Mo Farah available at 8.0 (7/1 less 5% commission) on betfair - somewhat better than bookmakers' top price of 5/1. For this reason I'm not booking a bet but I think 8.0 should be considered. Not least as my wife says that for her his two races were the defining moments of the Olympics!

Interestingly Coral is the only bookmaker currently betting on a top three finish (excluding betfair) and some of the prices are just too big, given the earlier comment about eight or nine runners being worthy contenders.

I have therefore had a few small bets in the hope that a "rag" can make the frame:

1pt Rory McIlroy SPOTY top three finish @ 50/1 Coral (Internet only: 40/1 shops)
0.75pt Ben Ainslie SPOTY top three finish @ 66/1 Coral
0.75pt Chris Hoy SPOTY top three finish @ 80/1 Coral
0.5pt Nicola Adams SPOTY top three finish @ 100/1 Coral

You can tell from the stakes above there is a lot of guess work here! What we need is a viral marketing campaign to spring up centred on one of the four listed.

The other wager I had sometime ago was a point on Ellie Simmonds @ 80/1 who at least has made the final twelve. She is now top price 66/1 and I have had a small further bet as follows:

1pt win Ellie Simmonds without Bradley Wiggins @ 40/1 Betfred (Lads only 16/1)

Total invested four points