Well the bottom half of the draw has opened up - but not in the way I expected as Nadal is out rather than Murray. The outright betting now strongly favours the top half of the draw with Djoko generally slightly odds on to win the tourney with the Fed no better than 3/1 despite a close shave this evening.
Of course in the lower half of the draw everyone is talking up Murray's chance of reaching the final which will place additional pressure on the Scot. All bookmakers now offer only 1/3rd odds to reach the final - except Ladbrokes and Skybet who still offer 1/2 1,2. This is significant.
The match that interests me in the next round is Nadal's conquerer Rosol who plays Kohlschreiber where the latter is generally priced in the match bet at 4/7 to prevail. Yet in the outright market the Czech is 40/1 and the German 100/1 or more. Why is Kohlschreiber 100/1? After all he has a good grass court pedigree, recently beating Nadal in straight sets in Halle. He also won Halle in 2011. Jimmy Connors referred to Rosol as a "stopper" - someone who knocks out a high ranking seed then goes no further. It will be interesting to see if he can play as well in the next round.
Now the obvious winner of the fourth quarter is Tsonga, with a semi versus Murray widely predicted. Well here is my little portfolio to try and land someone in the final from the bottom half other than Murray:
3pts ew Tsonga @ 11/1 Skybet (1/2 odds 1,2)
2pts ew Kohlschreiber @ 100/1 Ladbrokes (1/2 odds 1,2)
1pt ew Ferrer @ 100/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)
Twelve points invested.
Sent from my iPad
No comments:
Post a Comment