Paul Hanagan was a substantial contributor to our 577 points profit in 2010 thanks to bets at 40/1. This year his winning the jockeys' championship could also result in a profitable year for us. However currently we are winning only nine points ytd. Unfortunately I think there is a real chance now of Paul being caught by Fallon who is just seven wins behind. Although the Irishman has a two-day ban next week, he appears to be pulling out all the stops to overhaul the current champion.
With just one month to go I think we need to hedge our position. We have staked 44.5 points on the event (including a 4pt ew handicap bet on PH which is touch and go for a place). We already have bets on the three jockeys that can win. Assuming the handicap bet is a loser, our potential profits stand at:
Hanagan +78.5pts; De Sousa +7.5pts; Fallon -18.5pts.
Therefore I am having a maximum 20pts win @ 9/4 Fallon with Paddy Power. This price is available with seven other bookmakers tonight (only Ladbrokes differ by quoting 7/4). I have chosen PP because of the possibility of a concession (eg if it was a dead-heat they might payout on both in full!). I have assumed De Sousa is too far behind to overtake both his opponents.
The revised position is now as follows:
Hanagan +58.5pts; Fallon +26.5pts; De Sousa -12.5pts.
If you've been following the bets on my website you'll know why it has become much more difficult to win. If you are new to the blog and do not hold the substantial winning positions on Hanagan I would not recommend that you have a maximum bet on Fallon. However he is worth a bet @ 9/4 to a small stake even if you are not involved in the jockey portfolio.
Bet record can be found here: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php
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