African Nations Cup

Well we certainly had some very good value losers today at Kempton. The main fancies attracted significant support, in particular Vale Of Lingfield (from 7/1 to 3/1) which had nowhere to go two furlongs out having been boxed in on the rail. I trust we will have better days in 2013.

Switching to football, I have played the draws in Saturday's first two quarter-final matches in the ANC as follows:

02/02/2013 15:00 Ghana v Cape Verdi 5pts to draw @ 13/5 Paddy Power

02/02/2013 18:30 S. Africa v Mali 6pts to draw @ 9/4 Paddy Power

Will probably play the Sunday matches too, depending on the prices available.

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Lingfield fancied at Kempton

A couple of races on the all-weather today:

17:50K 1.5pts win Vale Of Lingfield @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG

17:50K 0.5pt ew Ishi @ 28/1 William Hill BOG

18:50K 2.5pts win Black Truffle @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

19:20K 2pts win Haaf A Sixpence @ 11/4 William Hill BOG

19:20k 0.5pt ew Docofthebay @ 12/1 Skybet

Total stake eight points

Argo all go

Hollywood action is the reason for the Argo plunge highlighted yesterday:

http://movies.yahoo.com/blogs/2013-oscars/argo-rises-lincoln-fades-sepia-photograph-sag-awards-035918529.html

Argo now best priced 5/4 this morning. I guess you could argue the bookmakers have the wrong favourite. Hope you are on at 9/2 and if not 5/2!

Oscars price alert

Having suggested Argo for Best Picture a couple of days ago (@ 9/2) there has been a sudden plunge today, resulting in the best price with bookmakers reducing to 9/4 (Sportingnobet). Although there are bits and pieces available on betfair around 3.5 before commission at the time of writing.

I wonder if a major tipster has put it up or if there is a strong rumour emanating from Hollywood? Time will tell.

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Djoko v Mugray

I am not going to get heavily involved in tomorrow's match however I do think that Djoko has played the best tennis by far in this tournament. In addition he should benefit from having had an extra day off. Following Mugray's four-hour match against a tired looking Federer perhaps everyone will be expecting another five-set classic. However the way in which Djoko recovered from his five-set ordeal against Stan The Man to dismiss Berdych in four and then to overwhelm Ferrer for the loss of just five games indicates to me that he could win this final more easily than expected.  I have had:

3pts win Djoko to win 3-0 in sets @ 11/4 Skybet

And as a saver:

1pt win Djoko to win 3-1 in sets @ 10/3 Boylesports

As I have kept stakes to a minimum for the last match it means that if these bets are losers we will still finish marginally ahead on the tourney thanks to Sloane Stephens' semi-final appearance. 

Four points staked.

Football/Tennis

Horrible results in the three selected FA Cup matches played Friday/Saturday. All three matches were level with five or fewer minutes to play. Everton scored their winner on 91 minutes. In a way the Friday match was even worse because Aston Villa were the losing team (on 89 minutes) thus increasing the chance of Lambert getting the boot before Pardew does. I hope the board continues to support Lambert - they have declared that Lambert would be the right man to bring the team back up to the Premiership should the Midlands' side be relegated. Let's hope that remains the case. Big match on Tuesday - a relegation "six pointer" - the Premiership encounter between AV and Newcastle. I hope AV can win it.

Only the Leeds match can save our FA Cup stakes now - tomorrow afternoon.

Undeterred by these poor results, I've had a small play on inform Watford to win the Championship. It will be stiff task to catch Cardiff. However they moved up to fourth this afternoon, with an impressive performance, to go within one point of second place. I have had:

2pts each-way Watford to win Championship @ 14/1 Coral 1/3 odds 1,2

On the tennis front I thought Li Na was a little unlucky to lose the final this morning. She had two (genuine) MTOs. First she twisted her ankle. Later on she fell again cracking her head on the court. Nevertheless her prices for the next two GSs have contracted. She is now a best priced 10/1 for the French and 25/1 for Wimbledon. Carlos has work to do after this defeat but I think we have a little bit of value with the two bets. On her day she can hit anyone off the court.

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Wimbledon Ladies

While we have the fireworks break I'm having a Wimbledon interest:

1.5pts each-way Li Na @ 33/1 Paddy Power NRNB (1/2 1,2)

Three points staked

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