Football and racing tomorrow

It's been a very annoying evening. 

Firstly an absolute nightmare with the first three play-off matches which all finished as away wins. But it was the manner of the last two victories which was so infuriating. The away teams scored the winning goals in the 94th and 95th minute respectively! You couldn't make it up. I know I should not concern myself as to when the goals are scored - the results are either draws or they are not draws. End of story...well not quite, I have gone for a small top up on the final three matches as follows: 

Saturday  12:15 Ipswich v Norwich draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  19:45 Plymouth v Wycombe draw 12/5 Betfred

Sunday     1835 Stevenage v Southend draw 23/10 Betfred 

3 x 0.75 pt doubles and 0.25 pt treble above three draws. Total 2.5 points. 

I spent sometime this evening looking through the impossible Victoria Cup at Ascot tomorrow and decided I would play Highland Acclaim, one of three O'Meara runners. Couldn't believe it when it popped up as the headline Pricewise selection at 20:00 this evening! WH were best price 25/1 now no better than 16/1 is available anywhere - until the morning. I'm therefore going to post a bet that should be available for a short time at 8:30 am with WH. I've made it a small bet and if I can't get the bet I will revert to 16/1 BOG for recording purposes. If I can get it you should be able to as they only lay me buttons:

15:45A 1pt ew Highland Acclaim @ 25/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG - available at 8:30 am only. 

Two points staked.

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Election results

Terrible results for my election bets. I was way out with my bets in supporting Labour to get most seats. All I can say is thank god I don't spread bet because if I did I would now be facing heavy losses through buying Labour seats and/or selling the Cons. As for prospects for the country, expect a meaner, uglier less charitable UK once the Cons get stuck into welfare cuts etc. without the LDs to hold back their savagery.....

I'm annoyed at not profiting from the lack of success of UKIP. I thought they would struggle to get more than two seats however this was very much the view of the layers - who were giving nothing away at the low end of expectations. I thought I'd found the answer when I read that a firm was offering 4/1 Farage to be the first party leader to resign. Fortunately I couldn't find the market so was not on - just as well as Clegg beat him to it!

As for the LDs, there is one glimmer of hope from a betting perspective. On 23 Dec 2010 I blogged eight points on Tim Farron at 9/1 to be the next leader of the LDs (after Clegg). He is currently a 1/4 chance with the books. This would be something if a bet came good after nearly five years! It would beat the Mourhino return to Chelsea wager which was under two and a half years to settlement!

The pound has strengthened as a result of the election outcome. Contrary to all the pundits of course - like the election result.So at least European trips remain attractive. The best (tourist) rate yesterday was 1.32. It's 1.35 this afternoon!

Chester Friday

Going to give Edgar Balthazar another chance tomorrow as he drops back from 6f to the minimum trip. Today he led but faded rapidly at the furlong pole. I've had:

15:45C 2pts win 0.5pt place Edgar Balthazar @ 20/1 Boylesports BOG

15:45C 3pts win Wanting @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG

Edgar also 20/1 with Ladbrokes.

Total stake 5.5pts staked. 

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Play-offs

I've played the draws in each of the first round play-off matches in The Championship, League One and League Two. These are priced at 23/10 or better with Betfred. Statistically these matches have been close to a 40% draw success rate which means they should be priced nearer to 6/4 than the minimum odds available of 23/10 for the stalemate. 

Therefore, in theory, you could layout the notes for six singles and expect at least two to finish all-square for a small profit should just two matches oblige. I prefer to combine them in a multiple and hope for the Crown Jewels! I have had:

Thursday 19:45 Sheffield Utd v Swindon draw 12/5 Betfred

Thursday 19:45 Chesterfield v Preston draw 12/5 Betfred

Friday      19:45 Brentford v Middlesbrough draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  12:15 Ipswich v Norwich draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  19:45 Plymouth v Wycombe draw 12/5 Betfred

Sunday     1835 Stevenage v Southend draw 23/10 Betfred 

20 x 0.5 point win trebles = ten points staked. Last year there were three draws from the equivalent six matches.  

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16:55 Chester

Some of you who are more observant than I was first thing this morning have pointed out that the above race is a Paddy Power "extra place special" race. They therefore offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4. Fred appears to have matched the offer. So it's very favourable ew terms with a maximum of 13 runners going to post.

PP offer 12/1 my ew selection whereas Fred has cut it to 10/1. Can't really justify a further bet myself so inevitably my choice will no doubt finish fourth!

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Chester and politics

Just playing one race today following yesterday's disappointing run from Come On Dave: 

16:55C 1.5pts ew Edgar Balthazar @ 12/1 Coral BOG

16:55C 4pts win Northgate Lad @ 11/4 Coral BOG

In the election yesterday's polls showed Lab and Con very close on vote percentages consequently 4/1 about Labour winning most seats is too big:

2pts win Labour to win most seat in GE @ 4/1 Coral

Nine points staked today. 

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Political bet at Chester?

Topical selection at Chester tomorrow. Not in line with my election bets though:

15:45C 3pts win Come On Dave @ 11/2 Betfred BOG

You might find some 6/1 but 11/2 available in a couple of places.

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