X-factor shite

I was not intending to have a bet but having watched the dreadful programme for the first time this year last weekend I have decided to get involved. Reason being I think the favourite is worth opposing. Surely after one week of the live shows 6/4 is far too short with a total of 14 acts still involved. Therefore I am opposing Andrea Faustini as I believe he may have peaked too soon. My main selection is Lauren Platt at 11/2 available with Betfred and others, plus a small bet on Fleur East:

3pts win Lauren Platt to win x-factor @ 11/2 Betfred

1pt win Fleur East to win x-factor @ 14/1 Betfred

I see that 'Sofabet' put up ''New Boy Band" at 11/2 as the most likely winner ahead of the live shows. (Incidentally they are now called Stereo Kicks - ludicrous name.) Big drifter on betfair and now available at 12.5 after just one week of the live shows. Can't have an eight-timer - ridiculous concept. So I'm going to oppose them too by backing the only other group left in the competition as follows: 

1pt win Only The Young to be top group @ 9/2 Betfred

0.5pts EW Only The Young to win x-factor @ 40/1 Coral (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Total six points staked.

Don't know yet whether I will be having a bet at Ascot on Saturday. Looks like the ground will be very heavy if the meeting goes ahead. Probably decide Saturday morning. Things going well recently though with 7/1 and 11/1 winners tipping the accumulative win % for 2014 above 28%. Happy days.

Sent from my iPad 

Joni Mitchell albums for an incredible £2 each!

I won't be buying this collection. But that's because I already have everything she has recorded. But this collection is such extraordinary value I thought it was worth bringing it to your attention. It features her TEN studio albums recorded between 1968-1979. And yet it costs only £21.17 post free from Amazon...

Click here: Joni Mitchell studio albums

Newmarket - Cesarewitch

Only one race of interest today. That's the big handicap at Newmarket. I've had small bets on two horses that have not won on the flat for three years! However both have finished second over course and distance. The first selection was beaten a neck in the trial last month. The other poke was second last year in this race:

15:50New 1.5pts win 1pt place Big Easy @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

15:50New 0.75pts EW Waterclock @ 50/1 Boylesports BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

England v San Marino

England as you probably know are 1/100 to win this match. But what will the score be? I've played the following scores with Paddy Power who are offering a money back special:-

0.75pts England to win 4-0 @ 8/1 Paddy Power 

1pt England to win 5-0 @ 7/1 Paddy Power 

0.75pts England to win 6-0 @13/2 Paddy Power 

Should the above be losers, stakes will be refunded (as a free bet) if Welbeck scores the first goal (up to £100 apparently). This is the default option but you can choose a different scorer if you wish. 

I've also backed Welbeck to score a hat-trick at 6/1. Might seem a short price but this is the top price - he is as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Scored two in England's last match - away to Switzerland - so why not three here!

1.5pts Welbeck to score hat-trick against San Marino @ 6/1 Betfred

Total staked four points. 

Sent from my iPad 

Weekend results

No good at Ascot: loss 3.5pts.

Moviesta ran a great race to finish third beaten a couple of heads in the Longchamp sprint: -1pt

Flintshire ran a good race to finish second in the Arc. Returning 7.25pts. Profit on race 2.25pts. Only consolation here is I would never had backed the winner. Didn't think she could come back.

Longchamp - Sunday

Having given some more thought to the Arc I'm going to add two more selections now rather than wait until tomorrow or Sunday. Ruler Of The World is coupled with Treve and Ectot in the PMU so I have backed Dettori's mount at a fixed price, there being no potential value on the PMU. I've also backed another French contender with W Hill. However it will still be worth comparing the PMU prices with those on offer with UK bookmakers on Sunday because of the expected money for the three Japanese contenders which could distort the PMU market.

I have also had a shot at the Prix De L'Abbaye, an impossible race run over less than five furlongs. Here are the additional weekend selections:

Sun 13:00L 1pt win Moviesta @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Sun 15:30L 2pts win Avenir Certain @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
Sun 15:30L 1pt win Ruler Of The World @ 16/1 Coral BOG

The two French races are incredibly competitive so don't be surprised if I draw a blank! As for my earlier Ascot post for tomorrow, Pricewise has gone for Chill The Kite so its price has naturally been shaved. The Sporting Life judge, Ben Linfoot, names Fort Bastion amongst his choices so that one's price has been cut too! So at least taking the earlier prices on offer was the right thing to do whatever the outcome!

Incidentally Gina Harding told us last night that Flintshire's trainer Andre Fabre "had a twinkle in his eye" when she spoke to him about his chance of winning the Arc. I suspect though that the twinkle may just have resulted from being interviewed by Gina! Still at least he didn't say he didn't fancy its chances........

Ascot Saturday

Have had a couple of plays in the big handicap at Ascot tomorrow. The main selection is wearing a visor for the first time and is having his first run for David O'Meara: 

15:50A 2pts win Fort Bastion @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG

15:50A 1.5pts win Chill The Kite @ 16/1 Coral BOG

I will also be having some plays on Sunday's Arc. The market will be very interesting on the day because one would expect the Japanese horses to be heavily backed on the PMU. I would also expect the EW terms from the UK bookmakers to improve. Some are currently offering only 1/5 the odds 1,2,3 even though there are 20 runners and it will be 6/1 or 7/1 the field. Boyles at least are 1/4 1,2,3,4. For now I have had:

Sun 15:30L 1pt ew Flintshire @ 25/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) BOG  

Sent from my iPad