Birmingham v Chelsea - FA Cup

A very interesting match this evening is the FA Cup replay at Birmingham. There is usually a "bounce" in performance when a new manager takes charge - although Kevin Pullein will tell you that this typically lasts for one match! However can Di Matteo be considered a new manager? He is of course just a stand in and not a high calibre one. He was sacked from West Brom as they thought he may not be able to keep them in the Premiership. Witness the improvement under Roy H since he has taken charge at the Hawthorns.

It's all about how the "senior" players react after AVB's departure. They may play well. I'm going to take a chance that Chelsea is still in turmoil and have:

2 pts @ 11/2 Birmingham to beat Chelsea in 90 minutes with Boylesports 

Oscar Whisky - World Hurdle

William Hill special offer this morning. Going 6/1 Oscar Whisky against Big B from 8.30am for limited period.

You will not get a lot on as it's generally a 4/1 shot but the following was laid to me:

4pts ew Oscar Whisky @ 6/1 with William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3)


In addition it's NRNB and the third favourite in the market, Thousand Stars, may yet be switched to the Champion Hurdle. This has to be a value each-way bet.

Eight points invested.

Rory McIlroy

I am having a golf bet today which is a rare event. Rory McIlroy holds a two shot lead going into the final round of the Honda Classic in Florida today. There is added pressure in that if he wins he will replace Luke Donald as world number one. There are thunderstorms and winds of up to 25mph forecast in Florida. The start times have been brought forward because of the weather forecast. Of course Rory is used to such conditions in N. Ireland but the weather conditions could add to the uncertainty of the outcome.

Even though the players in very close contention are not ranked high, I think Rory is a lay given the weather forecast and the world status pressure. There is a very solid market on betfair with Rory odds on at 1.61-1.62 as I write.

I have therefore laid McIlroy @ 1.62 to lose six points.


As a consequence if Rory wins the tournament I lose six points whereas if he loses I win a fraction over nine points allowing for the maximum 5% betfair commission to be applied.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Last year I backed Midnight Chase for the Gold Cup at 33/1 and was very disappointed when he never really got in the shake up. I've not given up on the course specialist however and I see William Hill are offering an attractive 16/1 which includes the NRNB clause.

I have had 3 pts ew @ 16/1 Midnight Chase for the Gold Cup with W Hill (NRNB)

Six points invested

Portsmouth relegation

There is an interesting situation developing in the Championship. Portsmouth's administrator has revealed that the financial situation is so severe that the club may not be able to fulfil their fixtures. West Ham would be the biggest losers near the top of the table if this happened as they would lose the six points accrued in their two victories over the club. Reading would jump into second place in these circumstances.

Reading are on a roll having won their last five matches without conceding a goal. I think they are worth an each way punt with Coral at 8/1:

I have had 5pts ew @ 8/1 Reading for the Championship with Coral (1/5 odds 1,2,3)

Ten points staked

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Another bet at Cheltenham. A selection in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the contest that opens the festival.

Not many bookmakers are offering NRNB yet, however Ladbrokes is one of the few that is offering this concession on this race.

 They also happen to be top price about the one I am interested in. I have therefore had:

2 pts win 1pt place Tetlami @ 16/1 with Ladbrokes NRNB

Kempton 6f, 17:40

Like the look of the top weight in what looks a poor race at 17:40 Kempton. I have had:

4 pts @ 11/2 Hambleton 17:40 Kempton with Coral 


Next best prices 5/1 WH and PP which are both BOG