Australian Open

What a disaster for our ante-post bets so far. Clijsters retired with a left hip injury during her semi-final in Brisbane this morning and then Federer pulled out of the Doha event at the semi-final stage. You may know that Federer has never retired during a top level match throughout his professional career. In addition he has only retired on one previous occasion from a tournament once it is in progress. So his back must be pretty bad.

At this stage both are hopeful of competing in the first grand slam but equally both are on the drift in the markets.

In the ladies' event we now have question marks over leading contenders Serena W and Kim C. In addition home hope Stosur lost tamely the other day to a player who had previously never won a set. So a speculative bet now in case the field should "cut up":

2pts win Li Na @ 20/1 with Paddy Power (NRNB)

The Chinese is a streak player and can get on a roll. Currently playing ok in the Hopman Cup, and, of course, was the beaten finalist last year.

In the men's event I think home hope Tomic is worth a speculative bet:

1pt ew Tomic @ 80/1 with 888.com (also available at Blue Square and Boyles)

Tomic plays Murray tomorrow and is unlikely to beat him. However if he does he will be 25s or 33s for the big one.

Total four points invested.

Kim Clijsters

As Kim is about to start her semi-final in Brisbane against Hantuchova this morning she is now a best priced 6/1 for the Aus Open. We have bets at 16/1 and 14/1.

It pays to be one step ahead in this game and I notice that she is priced between 12/1 and 22/1 for the French Open. As she was out with injuries for seven months in 2011 I would not bet that far ahead without the protection of  non-runner no bet. Both Paddy Power and Sky bet offer this concession.

I have therefore had 4 pts ew Kim Clijsters to win French Open @ 20/1 with Paddy Power.

If the price goes shortly after my modest bet I would advise the 16/1 with Skybet rather than 20/1 with a another firm that does not offer NRNB.

Let's be 'aving ya!

As Delia would say. Actually Delia's outfit are going to be one of my three against the field in this year's FA Cup.

It may seem an unsound strategy to look beyond the traditional "big four" when trying to find the FA Cup winner. One of Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea has won the FA Cup in 14 of the last 16 seasons. The exceptions are Man C last year and Portsmouth in 2008. It could be significant that these are recent victories. In addition Man U have drawn fellow table toppers Man C and could therefore be out of the competition in the first round.

My three selections will be backed each-way at big prices so that achieving a losing finalist would produce a significant overall profit. (Each-way 1/2 odds to reach final). In 11 of the 16 finals mentioned above the losing finalists have NOT been one of the traditional big four.

The three teams that I have chosen are all Premiership sides which:

1. Are unlikely to be contenders for a top four league position
2. Look to be safe from relegation
3. Are not involved in the Europa Cup

Norwich City - 100/1
Doing quite well in the top flight with 25pts from 20 matches. Have home fixture against Burnley.

I have had 1pt ew Norwich @ 100/1 with Paddy Power


Sunderland - 50/1
Martin O'Neill has done brilliantly in the short time he has been in charge. The team is playing with a new level of confidence. Will play away at Peterborough.

I have had 2pts ew Sunderland @ 50/1 with Coral


Newcastle - 40/1
Surprised many people (including me) with their solid performances to date. One negative will be the absence of our Premiership TGS selection Demba Ba, who will be missing for the African Nations Cup - but may only miss one fixture should Newcastle progress. First match at home to lowly Blackburn.

I have had 1.5pts ew Newcastle @ 40/1 with Coral


Total FA Cup investment nine points.

WTA Brisbane

Watched Kimmy beat Ana this morning. She won the first set 6-1, lost the second by the same score and then recovered from 0-3 to win the final set 6-3. She needs match practice so this was probably a good thing ahead of the first grand slam. She is now no better than 10/1 for the Aus Open.

The Brisbane draw has rather a lopsided look to it with the first three in the betting, SW, KC and SS all in the top half. This has prompted me to have a close look at the bottom half of the draw in order to consider an each-way poke.

If tonight's matches go to form, the bottom half quarter-finals will be Janko v Schiavone and Pav v Petko.  Janko leads FS 4-2 HTH and Petko is 1-0 HTH against Pav. Therefore it could be a Janko v Petko semi-final. Petko leads Janko H2H 2-1 although Janko won decisively in their latest meeting. Petko is 6/1 to win the tournament whereas Janko is 10/1. I understand Janko's off season training has gone well so she is my pick at the larger odds and indeed an attractive 5/1 to reach the final. (Hopefully against Kimmy!)

I have had 2pts ew Janko to win Brisbane @ 10/1 with Paddy Power 1/2 odds 1,2 (Also available with Boyles and VC). Four points invested.

US politics - Republican Nominee

Everyone keeps saying a candidate is going to come out of the woodwork to challenge Mitt Romney to the Republican nomination but they keep falling by the wayside. Now Rick Santorum is making a run and could go close at the first caucus in Iowa. Don't worry about his politics - you don't really want to know. They're a strange lot these Republicans. Romney does look beatable though despite being 1/3 for the overall gig.

I have had 3pts @ 18/1 Rick Santorum to be Republican Nominee with Stan James (also available with W Hill but 22/1 with VC for you lucky Chandler punters).

Rick has spent a huge amount of time in Iowa and it seems to be paying off. Win or lose the Iowa result could give him some momentum going forward.

First bets of the new year!

Brisbane tennis

For the first bet placed in 2012 I am going for a tennis match which is scheduled to be played around 2:00am UK time:

2.5pts Melinda Czink to beat Vania King @ 2.8 with Boylesports

Although King is the higher ranked player, Czink holds a 3-0 HTH. The three matches they have played were on hard, grass and clay and King has never won a set. They haven't played for a couple of years but you'd think the betting would be a little closer.

Aiden O'Brien UK classic winners 2012

If you follow racing you will know what a strong hand AOB has in this year's classics. Well he does on paper at least. I've had the following rather optimistic bets today:

AOB to have four UK classic winners, 2pts @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes

AOB to have all five UK classic winners, 0.5pt @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

If VC will allow you to bet with them then you can get 50/1 the full house. Good luck in getting that to more than 10p.

Total stakes today 5pts.

2011 results

Results for 2011 are as follows:

Stakes 847 Returns 977 Profit 130 = 15.4% Full details: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php

Winning bets settled in 2011 include:

Danny Graham TGS, Championship W33/1
Kvitova, Wimbledon W25/1
England to win Ashes 3-1 W16/1
Sizing Europe, Cheltenham W14/1
Little Mix, X-factor W14/1
Djoko, Wimbledon W12/1
Villas-Boas, next Chelsea mgr W12/1

Total results for 2009/10/11:

Stakes 1,532 Returns 2,239 Profit 707 = 46.2%

Good luck in 2012.