New kid on the block

She first came to my attention in November when contesting the Fed Cup final with Belarus. That weekend Aryna Sabalenka beat the recently crowned US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the singles. The Belarusian was ranked 78 in the world at the time. Since then, as I anticipated, she has steadily risen up the rankings and tomorrow she enters the top 20 on the eve of the US Open.

Expectations for the final major of 2018 are increasing. I’m holding some nice betting vouchers, 50/1 to win the singles (25/1 to reach final) and 14/1 to make the semis. However her performances at this year’s other grand slams do not inspire confidence - she’s lost in the first round each time.

Wimbledon was particularly disappointing. Aryna, unseeded, had a dream run to the Eastbourne final, beating Goerges, Mertens and Ka Pliskova on the way. In the title match she lost in two close sets to Wozniacki. After this seemingly perfect preparation she lost to the improving Romanian Buzarnescu in Wimbledon’s first round. 

She’ll play Danielle Collins in the US Open first round. The American has a big forehand but nothing like the hammer blow the big Belarusian possesses! I’d say the latter is the female equivalent of the Delpo forehand. 

Looks like she’s a future grand slam winner. This fortnight might just come a bit too soon. 

In full bloom

Wonderful time of year for enjoying the garden:

Wisteria in evidence - but no doubt not for long...

Twitter bets update

Website working again now so full list of bets suggested on Twitter can be found here:

Twitter bets 2018

Twitter bets profit update

There is a problem with the software which I use to update my website. Until that is fixed here is a summary of 2018 activity. (Unresolved bets total 24 points). Full bet details will be published on my website once I can update it:

At 19/03/2018 Sports by month Stake Return Profit % March Tennis - Indian Wells (M&W) 10.50 28.33 17.83 Cheltenham Festival 14.00 8.50 -5.50 19/03/2018 March total (so far) 24.50 36.83 12.33 50.33% January Tennis - Aus Open (M&W) 11.00 51.50 40.50 February Rugby  1.00 0 -1.00 Tennis - Doha 2.00 0 -2.00 2018 to date 38.50 88.33 49.83 129.43%

Sweet Caroline

I backed both Carolines for the Australian Open: Wozniacki and Garcia. Not my only bets as I played three other women too. Nevertheless a great result as Woza obliged @ 33/1. My total stakes on the women's event were eight points (plus a three point loss on the men's). So final calculation is:

Total Australian Open stakes 11 points returns 51.5 points profit 40.5 points.

What I have learned over the last six months (in particular) is not to play match bets (unless hedging an outright position). I just cannot get a winning margin in these H2H plays. Far better for me to concentrate on the outright markets which have proved so successful in recent times.

Since the US Open, winners including 66/1, 12/1 and now 33/1 has meant total tennis stakes of 34 points returns of 174.5 points and thus a profit of 140.5 points. (All bets advised on Twitter).

Garden view from study this morning

ATP Finals, autumn recap and 2018 first thoughts

Another profitable tennis tournament result for followers of my Twitter stuff. Only two bets advised: 2pts ew Dimitrov 12/1 WHill (1/3 odds 1,2 ew) and 0.5pt ew Sock 25/1 Paddy P (1/3 odds 1,2 ew). Stakes five points, returns 36 points.

Dimitrov beat my other choice Sock in the semi-final and then beat Goffin, who defeated Federer in the other semi, in the final.

That’s tennis betting finished for 2017 events. It’s been a very profitable year, not least the period from the US Open onwards. The last five tournaments have yielded:

US Open - stakes 10.5 returns 64 (SS/MK)
WTA Singapore - stakes 4 returns 23 (CW/CG)
WTA Elite - stakes 2 returns 0
Fed Cup - stakes 1.5 returns 0
ATP Finals - stakes 5 returns 36 (GD)

Totals - stakes 23 returns 123.....PROFIT 100 points!!

Now take a look at the current Australian Open betting market. The best ew prices about the market leaders are: 3/1 Federer (bad back?), 7/2 Nadal (knee problems), 9/2 Djokovic (motivation?), 11/2 Murray (hip problem). Those four prices add up to 80%. It is still highly likely that one of the ‘big four’ will win the first grand slam of course but I’d rather have an interest in a couple of outsiders. For that reason I’ve had some bets on yesterday’s ATP finalists for the first two grand slams. Full details on my Twitter feed (@Mikedq).

US OPEN recap

As with Wimbledon, I decided the ladies' US Open would be very open and that supporting a small number of selections at big prices could prove profitable. I ignored leading contenders Muguruza, Pliskova and Halep. I swerved the men's event.

My pre-tournament bets were Keys, Svitolina and Stephens. During the tournament I added Makarova to the portfolio.

With Sloane Stephens beating Madison Keys in the final the stakes and returns were as follows:

1pt ew Keys 25/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). Return 13.5 points (losing finalist)
0.5pt ew Stephens 66/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). Return 50.5 points (winner)
1.5pt ew Svitolina
0.5pt ew Makarova + 0.5pt to win qtr.
(3pt hedge/cover bet)

Total stakes 10.5pt, returns 64 pts. Total profit 53.5pts.

(All above bets provided on my Twitter feed @Mikedq)

Wimbledon recap

I always feel a bit of a let down when Wimbledon is over for another year and so of course that is the case today. For me the best matches were Konta v Halep, Konta v Vekic and Nadal v Muller. The men's final was a huge disappointment.

The women's event was unprofitable for me. In what seemed a very open event (with Pliskova favourite - who I did not fancy) my "strategy" was to identify a handful of women at big prices who were in good form. Couldn't get anyone into the final however.

In contrast the men's event was very profitable. I backed three players outright: Federer 7/1 ew (in March), Nadal 7/1 ew and Cilic 28/1 ew.

Full list of bets below. Firstly those with staking advice:

Outright     1pt ew Cilic 28/1 Stake 2pts Return 15pts
                   1pt ew Kontaveit 50/1 Stake 2pts Return Nil
Qtr bets      1.5pts Tsonga 11/1 1pt Pouille 20/1 1st qtr Stakes 2.5pts Return Nil
Match bets   1pt D Brown to beat Murray Stake 1pt Return Nil
                    1pt Fog to beat Murray, 1pt Fog + 2.5 sets 11/8 Stake 2pts Return 2.37 Pts

Total stakes 9.5pts returns 17.37pts profit 7.87pts

Other than the above, which were all suggested on Twitter, I also tweeted a number of bet suggestions without staking advice. This was a rather silly thing to do as there was no indication of their relative merits. The suggestions were:

Men's: Federer 7/1, Nadal 7/1 Women: Ostapenko 33/1, Wozniacki 66/1. Clearly even level stakes on these selections showed a profit but in reality had they been accompanied by staking advice the shorter priced selections would have had the higher stakes. In particular I was very keen on Fed having suggested in March that he would start favourite. This was at a time when Murray and Djokovic were the market leaders, neither of whom reached the semi-finals.

So a profitable event thanks to Cilic and Fed who played a disappointing final yesterday owing to Cilic carrying an injury.

Leopardstown and Naas April 2017

Latest Irish track visits:

Leopardstown and Naas

The Beefy Boys

The rather modest frontage of The Beefy Boys, Hereford



A beef burger is just a beef burger, right? Well some are better than others of course. Having read a very positive review of The Beefy Boys (BB) by "Mr Pernickety" a well-regarded and, as his name implies, a somewhat fussy restaurant critic I thought I should try it for myself. I was in Hereford to check out a couple of films at the Borderlines Film Festival so what better place for lunch, BB being five minutes walk from the Courtyard Theatre where the films were being screened.

It was Tuesday. At around 12:20 I made my way to the restaurant past several empty establishments. Indeed Frankie & Benny's, next door to BB, had a cut-price burger promotion advertised on an A-board but sadly for them no punters as yet. In contrast BB was full downstairs consequently I was shown to a table upstairs. I understand there are long queues at the weekend so a weekday visit is advised: early (or late) lunch was a good idea.

So what's so good about the menu? Firstly the burgers are made from 100% 21-day aged Herefordshire beef. If you know your beef you'll be aware Hereford is one of the best. Burgers are served medium, with some pink, unless you request your burger well-done. Secondly the semi-brioche buns are made by the highly respected Ludlow baker, Peter Cook (from Price's) one of the best bakers in Shropshire.

What to choose? Well a basic burger with few trimmings is £8 whereas a specialty burger is £8 or £9, so the value is clearly with the specialties. I chose the Blue Boy @ £8: blue cheese mayo, pickled jalapeños, lettuce, red onion, American cheese, Swiss cheese and bacon. Millionaire fries looked the play as the side: white truffle oil, parmesan, chives, smoked chipotle and mayo dip, £3.50 (plain fries were £2.50).

Not only is the food all locally sourced, there is a fine selection of local beers from the excellent Wye Valley brewery. Their well-known (to me) bitters, HPA and Butty Bach are both available, however I followed Mr P and tried their "1985" lager which didn't disappoint (not tasting anything like Heineken or Carlsburg thankfully).

With the food cost totalling £11.50 this was a very good value lunch given the quality of the food on offer. If you plan to give it a try bear in mind it is extremely busy at weekends and you cannot book a table. Highly recommended.




Beefy Boys website

Fairyhouse December 2016

Not too many Cheltenham pointers here, more a guide to some new (to me) restaurants in Dublin:

Fairyhouse

Blog posting

You may have noticed I've not got a huge amount to say about betting (or indeed anything else) via the blog these days. Have little use for the blog since closing the free six-year long betting advice service back in November 2015.

Still having the occasional bet and public thought though. You'll find these on Twitter @Mikedq.

Staying focused in Galway

Article on latest track visits in Ireland: Leopardstown and Galway, including exploitation of the draw bias in the 7-f races at the latter:

Leopardstown and Galway July 2016

The 2020 video:

May day

Bets landed on Theresa May at 20/1 and 12/1.

William Hill bet paid out @ 20/1 and Paddy Power bet paid out @ 12/1.

Accumulative profit from December 2009 moves up to 1,622 points (21.5%)

Full details here:

ante-post portfolio

May-be

I seem to be doing better with my selections since the blog betting closed last November! At least in percentage terms. We are now in a very strong position with the two advised bets on Theresa May. They were placed/advised in 2011 (@ 20/1) and 2013 (@ 12/1). There is a potential profit on the two bets of 78 points (less two points lost on George). Full details here:

ante-post portfolio

Rather like the situation with the Trump bet, for the Republican nomination, there is an opportunity to lock in some profits as May is trading at odds-on for the Con gig. She is priced @ 1.73 to lay as I write. I don't intend to advise you, I just thought you should be aware of the situation when dusting down those ante-post slips!

As for the Trump bet advised @ 20/1, it was placed with Betfred who paid out earlier this month - even though the result is not 100% certain.

Tchaikovsky Piano Concerto No. 1

Extraordinary playing and, indeed, player:

Leicester

Many of you have heard about my (small) bets on Leicester to win the Premier League. Word gets around. Here are some answers to questions that have been asked.

Why did you back Leicester, are you a supporter?

I have never supported a particular football team. I have never spoken about a team as a fan would. So, for instance, I have never used the word 'we' when referring to a team. I think part of the reason for this is that I was brought up in a county that does not have a top flight team: Devon. Plus I was hopeless at football at school.

This position does have its advantages though as it means I am totally unbiased when having a football bet.

At the time of my Leicester bets there seemed to be doubts developing about the consistency of Arsenal, Man U, Man City and Chelsea. I also backed Liverpool for the Premiership in November. .

Why were your Leicester bets not advised on your blog? 

For reasons given elsewhere the betting blog closed on 1st November 2015. My Leicester bets were placed on 8th/23rd November. In any event only a small percentage of my bets appeared on the blog. I tried to recommend what I thought were the the best of my daily wagers on the blog and to a large extent this policy was successful. The blog achieved 20% profit over six years. My long term % profit is just under 9%.

Why were the bets so small - I thought you were a big punter?

Well I've never been a really big punter. I've never bet in thousands (bookmakers would certainly not allow it!) but these bets were particularly tiny. However each of the bets represents the maximum stake these bookmakers would allow me at the time. Actually the win liability (the same for each bet) is about 15 times what these firms would normally lay me on an early-price horse racing single. (My most profitable medium).

Would you have had bigger bets if allowed by these firms?

The answer is of course yes. But you have to remember that this is the case with more than 95% of all bets I place with bookmakers at prices. That's the way it is these days with restricted accounts and you just have to live with it or not bet at all.

Even though this is not a particularly big win it's strangely satisfying to feel part of what (for once) has been a very interesting Premier League season. Here are the winning wagers:

Great fun: 150/1 and 500/1 

Disturbed

This video has been watched 38 million times in just over four months. Which could mean you've already seen it. If you haven't you're in for a treat. Even Paul Simon likes it:

Being Irish

This is what it feels like to be Irish at this time. I'm only half-Irish. But it has always felt like the bigger half. My father was from Blackrock. His godfather was Michael Collins. Yes, really.

This is a real choker: