Not looking good

Horrible results yesterday. Horses all tailed off. Plus Madison Keys looked to be carrying an injury. Strange old game isn't it? One day you think you're the best judge in the world..next day...

Anyway taking in some classical music today and won't be watching any racing. One bet at Nottingham:

17:15N 2pts win 1pt place Looking Good @ 9/1 Betfred BOG

Three points staked.

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Saturday horses

The bets I've had today are as follows:

14:35C 2pts win Hopes N Dreams @ 11/2 Paddy Power BOG

14:35C 2pts win Counter Ridge @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:20H 2pts win Seve @ 13/2 Coral BOG 

Six points staked.

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Horse racing update

Exchequer did the business for us at Kempton on Wednesday and the money came for the selection as anticipated. It wasn't really smashed up until sometime after 10am though and there was some 6/1 and plenty of 11/2 available until then. The SP was 11/4.

The last two race results (w25/1 and w6/1) are very welcome. However there will be no horse racing bets on Friday. Possibly a bet or two on Saturday.

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Veteran (Franny Norton - near side) wins Veterans' Handicap on 25/1 (advised) Divine Call at Goodwood

French Open

Madison Keys is a player with great potential. I think she will make the top five in the next 18 months if she stays injury free. She had a great result in the second round today beating rising star Bencic for the loss of just three games. She plays Bacsinszky next who won her match even more easily (6-2, 6-0). The latter is marginal favourite over the American for their encounter which surprises me as their respective world rankings are 16 (MK) and 24(TB) and they have never met before. 

I've played both players to win the second quarter as I think the weak link in this section could be 11/10 Kvitova who has dropped a set in each of her two opening matches. The winner of Keys-Bacsinszky plays Kvitova assuming the Czech gets past Begu. 

Keys beat Kvitova in straight sets in this year's Australian Open on her way to a semi-final place. 

My bets are as follows:

1pt ew Madison Keys to win French Open @ 66/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

2pts Madison Keys to win second quarter @ 7/1 Coral

1.5pts Timea Bacsinszky to win second quarter @ 7/1 Skybet

Total stake 5.5 points

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Kempton Wednesday

After reasonable runs at Newmarket and Ascot, Exchequer is dropped in class back to Kempton AW. May come in for some market support tomorrow. I've taken 6/1 tonight:

19:40K 2pts win Exchequer @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG

(also available Betfair sportsbook, 11/2 WH next best both BOG)

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Weekend results

Harry stoops to score winning header and thus hang on to second place in the TGS table to land 16/1 ew place bet:

Meanwhile Steve Bruce has a headache at (7/2) Hull as they are relegated:

Very pleasing results this weekend, not least because Divine Call obliged @ 25/1 for us at Goodwood on Saturday. Happy days.

Saturday racing

Despite a recent poor run have backed a couple today at decent prices:

16:40G 1pt ew Divine Call @ 25/1 Coral BOG

16:20H 2pts win1pt place Barkston Ash @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

Five points staked.

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Premiership relegation

Hull moved a step nearer relegation when Sunderland made themselves safe by getting a point at Arsenal last night. Now only Hull or Newcastle can fill the final spot. Much as I dislike the Newcastle set up my preference of course will be for Hull to go down.

I'm not going to advise a hedge on Newcastle because unfortunately the Hull 7/2 advice was not substantial. However if you've had a decent bet on Hull to go down you could save your stake on Newcastle @ 6.4 currently available with Betfair.

I can't remember the last time I was cheering for Man U but that will be the case Sunday!

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Nottingham

No good yesterday. One race at Nottingham today:

14:30N 2pts win 1pt place Moon River @ 11/1 Betfred BOG

14:30N 1pt ew Mountain Man @ 8/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked.

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Leicester tonight

The Kevin Ryan stable is in fine form. He had four winners (12/1, 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1) from his nine runners over the weekend. I'm siding with Cyril in the 19:45 Leicester. The field is down to six runners as I write but 5/1 might be a bit of value here: 

19:45L 2pts win Cyril @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

19:45L 1pt win Berland @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

Three points staked.

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Results/Saturday football

No bets for me today. Yesterday's selections at Hamilton finished third and fourth. Bognor was backed from 8/1 taken to 5/1 but was out of the money. Tectonic snatched third place from the latter and was returned 14/1. Thus BOG kicked in and the return on the race was 5.7 points from six points staked so no damaged done.

It's the fag end of the football season as far as my domestic bets are concerned. The chances of any returns are encapsulated in one of today's fixtures: Tottenham v Hull. I had high hopes for Tottenham finishing in the top four with Harry Kane on fire. With two matches to go the north London side are struggling and Harry can no longer score it seems. Top four aspirations are long gone and we are relying on Harry hanging on to second place in the goal scorer charts for an ew return (16/1 ew 1/3 odds 1,2). This would seem to be dependant on whether Costa plays again for Chelsea this season. He is only one goal (19 so far) behind the youngster. Austin is on 17, so would need a minimum of three in QPR's two remaining games, whereas Sanchez (16), has three more opportunities for Arsenal to bridge the gap including what seem comparatively easy home fixtures against strugglers West Brom and Sunderland.

Hull (7/2) was a relegation pick based on the difficulty of their run-in with ten matches to play. One of those difficult fixtures was Liverpool, who they beat and one of the few "easy" games was Burnley to whom they lost at home. Despite the Liverpool triumph they are odds-on to fill the remaining relegation spot. I would not enjoy the irony of a Hull win at White Heart Lane and a blank day for Harry!

All of the above would be forgotten if Juve could somehow beat Barcelona in Berlin on 6 June!

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Hamilton 18:55

I've been waiting to see if there was going to be any non-runners in the third race at Hamilton. I fancy taking on the market leaders with two selections - including ew -  and therefore hope that eight runners stand their ground. My bets are:

18:55H 2pts win 1pt place Bognor @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

18:55H 1.5pts ew Tectonic @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

Six points staked.

Here's hoping there are no non-runners!

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Chester visit

No bets today. Good result last night with Juventus making the final of the CL. At least it means a winning tournament with the ew part of the (February) Juventus bet landed. Free hit at Barca now. Let's hope Messi has an off day!

Last week I went to Chester races for the first time. If you'd like to see how it went you can read my article here:

Chester

Real Madrid v Juventus

I will of course be cheering on Juventus to go through to the CL final tonight and reward my ew bet on the Italians. Despite prevailing 2-1 in the first leg RM are the favourites to progress to the final. Juve need a draw (or a win) tonight. I have a horrible feeling the Italians might try and play for the 0-0 and come unstuck. That would be horrible. I've had a small correct score bet as follows:

1pt Real Madrid to win 1-0 @ 9.0 betfair exchange (8.6 after commission).

You could consider 7/1 with WH, money back as a free bet if match finishes 0-0. 

Obviously if RM win by another score I'm done for. (2-1 RM would mean extra time though). 

Here's hoping Juve can get a draw and go through....

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Beverley

Markets look a bit tight this morning. Taking prices but BOG always there to kick-in if I take under. Anyway here goes: 

14:55B 2pts win Amenable @ 9/4 William Hill BOG

14:55B 1pt ew Boxing Shadows @ 11/1 Bet365 BOG

15:25B 2pts win Wind Power @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

15:25B 1pt win Point North @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

Plus 4 x 0.5pt win doubles above four WH (10/1 Boxing Shadows)

Nine points staked.

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Next Lib Dem leader

As you know I have a long standing significant bet on Tim Farron to be next Lib Dem leader @ 9/1 (December 2010). His current price is 1/4. It's looking like a two horse race so I've had a small bet on the main competitor in the betting Norman Lamb @ 9/2 with WH. Obviously neither could get the gig, which wouldn't be too clever:

2pts on Norman Lamb to be next Lib Dem leader @ 9/2 W Hill

(5/1 with SJ if you can bet there)

Of course the above wager will only be of interest if you are holding a near five-year-old betting slip with Farron's name on it..

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15:45A market update

WH have not put up their original price of 25/1 Highland Acclaim. There is a 14/1 non-runner in the race and I assume they consider this sufficient not to honour the original price. They currently offer 20/1 (as does Fred/Totesport) so if the selection wins - or is placed - it will be booked at 20/1 BOG.

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Football and racing tomorrow

It's been a very annoying evening. 

Firstly an absolute nightmare with the first three play-off matches which all finished as away wins. But it was the manner of the last two victories which was so infuriating. The away teams scored the winning goals in the 94th and 95th minute respectively! You couldn't make it up. I know I should not concern myself as to when the goals are scored - the results are either draws or they are not draws. End of story...well not quite, I have gone for a small top up on the final three matches as follows: 

Saturday  12:15 Ipswich v Norwich draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  19:45 Plymouth v Wycombe draw 12/5 Betfred

Sunday     1835 Stevenage v Southend draw 23/10 Betfred 

3 x 0.75 pt doubles and 0.25 pt treble above three draws. Total 2.5 points. 

I spent sometime this evening looking through the impossible Victoria Cup at Ascot tomorrow and decided I would play Highland Acclaim, one of three O'Meara runners. Couldn't believe it when it popped up as the headline Pricewise selection at 20:00 this evening! WH were best price 25/1 now no better than 16/1 is available anywhere - until the morning. I'm therefore going to post a bet that should be available for a short time at 8:30 am with WH. I've made it a small bet and if I can't get the bet I will revert to 16/1 BOG for recording purposes. If I can get it you should be able to as they only lay me buttons:

15:45A 1pt ew Highland Acclaim @ 25/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG - available at 8:30 am only. 

Two points staked.

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Election results

Terrible results for my election bets. I was way out with my bets in supporting Labour to get most seats. All I can say is thank god I don't spread bet because if I did I would now be facing heavy losses through buying Labour seats and/or selling the Cons. As for prospects for the country, expect a meaner, uglier less charitable UK once the Cons get stuck into welfare cuts etc. without the LDs to hold back their savagery.....

I'm annoyed at not profiting from the lack of success of UKIP. I thought they would struggle to get more than two seats however this was very much the view of the layers - who were giving nothing away at the low end of expectations. I thought I'd found the answer when I read that a firm was offering 4/1 Farage to be the first party leader to resign. Fortunately I couldn't find the market so was not on - just as well as Clegg beat him to it!

As for the LDs, there is one glimmer of hope from a betting perspective. On 23 Dec 2010 I blogged eight points on Tim Farron at 9/1 to be the next leader of the LDs (after Clegg). He is currently a 1/4 chance with the books. This would be something if a bet came good after nearly five years! It would beat the Mourhino return to Chelsea wager which was under two and a half years to settlement!

The pound has strengthened as a result of the election outcome. Contrary to all the pundits of course - like the election result.So at least European trips remain attractive. The best (tourist) rate yesterday was 1.32. It's 1.35 this afternoon!

Chester Friday

Going to give Edgar Balthazar another chance tomorrow as he drops back from 6f to the minimum trip. Today he led but faded rapidly at the furlong pole. I've had:

15:45C 2pts win 0.5pt place Edgar Balthazar @ 20/1 Boylesports BOG

15:45C 3pts win Wanting @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG

Edgar also 20/1 with Ladbrokes.

Total stake 5.5pts staked. 

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Play-offs

I've played the draws in each of the first round play-off matches in The Championship, League One and League Two. These are priced at 23/10 or better with Betfred. Statistically these matches have been close to a 40% draw success rate which means they should be priced nearer to 6/4 than the minimum odds available of 23/10 for the stalemate. 

Therefore, in theory, you could layout the notes for six singles and expect at least two to finish all-square for a small profit should just two matches oblige. I prefer to combine them in a multiple and hope for the Crown Jewels! I have had:

Thursday 19:45 Sheffield Utd v Swindon draw 12/5 Betfred

Thursday 19:45 Chesterfield v Preston draw 12/5 Betfred

Friday      19:45 Brentford v Middlesbrough draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  12:15 Ipswich v Norwich draw 23/10 Betfred

Saturday  19:45 Plymouth v Wycombe draw 12/5 Betfred

Sunday     1835 Stevenage v Southend draw 23/10 Betfred 

20 x 0.5 point win trebles = ten points staked. Last year there were three draws from the equivalent six matches.  

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16:55 Chester

Some of you who are more observant than I was first thing this morning have pointed out that the above race is a Paddy Power "extra place special" race. They therefore offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4. Fred appears to have matched the offer. So it's very favourable ew terms with a maximum of 13 runners going to post.

PP offer 12/1 my ew selection whereas Fred has cut it to 10/1. Can't really justify a further bet myself so inevitably my choice will no doubt finish fourth!

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Chester and politics

Just playing one race today following yesterday's disappointing run from Come On Dave: 

16:55C 1.5pts ew Edgar Balthazar @ 12/1 Coral BOG

16:55C 4pts win Northgate Lad @ 11/4 Coral BOG

In the election yesterday's polls showed Lab and Con very close on vote percentages consequently 4/1 about Labour winning most seats is too big:

2pts win Labour to win most seat in GE @ 4/1 Coral

Nine points staked today. 

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Political bet at Chester?

Topical selection at Chester tomorrow. Not in line with my election bets though:

15:45C 3pts win Come On Dave @ 11/2 Betfred BOG

You might find some 6/1 but 11/2 available in a couple of places.

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Next government

Almost certainly done my cash on Labour to win most seats. Now thinking the most likely outcome is a Lab-Lib coalition. This combo should reach about 300 seats and that might be enough to form (a minority) government. I have had:

3pts Lab-Lib coalition to form next government @ 8/1 Paddy Power

Available with several firms as I write.

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Monday racing

The last eight horse racing bets have produced three winners (5/2, 9/1 and 10/1) and two places (18/1 and 6/1). Just one play today then maybe a bet at Chester on Wednesday:

13:35B 2pts win Soie D'leau @ 5/1 Skybet BOG

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Legatissimo

Nice result in the 1000 Guineas, great run from the Irish filly who obviously stays very well. Would imagine she will be hard to beat if they go the Oaks route.

Brings back memories for me of Galway races last summer when she powered home in a 7f maiden. Backed her on course on the tote that day when she paid 20.0 for the win! Happy days.

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Musical tastes

Talking to a friend on Thursday night about current musical tastes. This, therefore, will only appeal to two or three people who read this blog. That will be about half the readers then! Me first. I know it's been out for about five years but I have to admit to only recently discovering the album Queen Of Denmark by John Grant. Here he is explaining then singing one of his songs from that album:

My friend introduced me to Public Service Broadcasting. Needless to say I knew nothing about them. Here they are with a mesmerising track called Go:

OK keep the chatter down in this room!

Sunday racing

Two bets for tomorrow:

15:00N 1pt ew Boomerang Bob @ 16/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

(Also available Boylesport and Sky - five places too) 

15:40N 2pts win Legatissimo @ 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook (fixed odds)

(Also available SJ)

Four points staked.

Good luck if you get involved.

Goodwood

A small interest at the Sussex venue:

15:25G 1pt ew Fairway To Heaven @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

Two points staked.

That's it for today...

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Saturday racing

The last three races advised on the blog have all produced a profit. Nice 9/1 (BOG) winner at Ayr in the latest post. Had a crack at the 2000 Guineas tomorrow which is not really my type of race so my winning sequence may well come to an end at Newmarket! 

This, of course, is a non-handicap race yet several bookmakers are offering 1/4 odds first four places which is the attraction. My bets are as follows:

15:45N 1.5pts ew Territories @ 6/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

15:45N 0.5pts ew Home Of The Brave @ 33/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Four points staked.

I may have a bet at Goodwood but will decide later.

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