Ascot

A rare horse racing bet today outside of the festivals:

15:15A 1pt ew Bronze Angel @ 12/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

15:15A 1pt win Belgian Bill @ 9/1 Coral 

15:15A 0.5pts Reverse SP forecast above two selections

Four points invested.

Sent from my iPad 

Open golf result

A good effort by Rickie Fowler to close the gap from six at the start of play today to just two strokes at the finish. Not quite good enough to take second place on his own, sharing that spot with Garcia. Therefore 11/4 chance becomes 7/8 winner.

GMac shot a 67 to finish tied ninth, as he didn't reach the magnificent seven there is no payout on him. Losing tournament but thankfully less than five points.

Not a huge loss in the scheme of things. Still 126 points to the good for 2014.

Sent from my iPad

Open golf - final round update

Looks like my main two selections (Rose, McDowell) are big odds today to reach the top seven and reward the ew bets. They both played well yesterday with sub-70 rounds but surely it will be a case of too little too late even for the place money. 

Unfortunately there is no ew betting today because Rory is such a short price to win. I've had a couple of bets though on his playing partner who is the only player apart from Rory to be sub-70 in their three rounds. It's a fairly obvious bet but I like the chances of Rickie staying ahead of the chasing pack. I have had:

3pts R Fowler to win Open w/o R McIlroy @ 11/4 Coral

1pt R Fowler to win Open @ 16/1 William Hill

Above prices available with several firms. Four points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

Golf update

Just to advise that Paddy Power has cut Matsuyama by ten points since I posted earlier this evening - from 55/1 to 45/1. However the larger price is still available with Bet365 who are matching PP's offer of ew a quarter the odds the first seven places. The other two prices taken are still available as I write.

I may have another bet on the final day, depending on the status of the three bets already placed. Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my iPad

Open Golf

Long term readers will know that I seldom bet on golf. Despite that I have a pretty good recent strike rate.  I tend to concentrate on this tournament. Last year I put up Phil @ 28/1 and the year before Ernie @ 25/1. The latter bet was actually placed/blogged on the morning of the final round.

This year I have persuaded myself to get involved now as I cannot resist some of the each-way terms on offer - despite the huge field. Betfred are offering 1/4 odds first eight places whereas Paddy Power and William Hill will payout on the first seven. I feel I don't need to explain my choices - you will probably know more about the players than I do. In any event this is what I have had:

1.5 pts ew J Rose @ 16/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1 pt ew G McDowell @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5 pts ew H Matsuyama @ 55/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Total six points staked

World Cup results

Very pleasing result last evening. The final worked out exactly as I thought (and hoped!) it might. The outcome resulted in a profit of over 40% on all bets placed on the tournament and pushed the annual profit back up above 45%.

World Cup portfolio:

 World Cup 2014

2014 results to date:

 Blog bets 2014

Obviously betting activity has been severely reduced this year - thanks to bookmaker account closures and restrictions - but at least the winning World Cup bets advised on this blog would have been easily accessible to most punters. Even the most cautious of bookmakers would have allowed reasonable bets on the WC final match to so-called "clever" punters!

I hope you had a profitable and enjoyable tournament.

World Cup final

In the semis I played the draws at 90 minutes with contrasting results. Germany embarrassed Brazil with a 7-1 win whereas the other semi finished 0-0 at odds taken of 11/5. 

I think the final could be very tight. Germany may have been flattered by their margin of victory over the hosts. The latter were easily beaten by Holland 3-0 last night. 

Argentina have only conceded three goals in the whole tournament. In the knockout stages - that's 330 minutes of football (two of the three matches having gone to extra-time) - they scored just two goals and did not concede. 

The last two World Cup finals (and three of the the last five) have finished all-square after 90 minutes. Therefore I conclude 9/4 the draw tonight (available with several firms) is a value bet. I have had:

4pts Germany v Argentina to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Paddy Power

1pt win no goal scorer (90 mins) @ 13/2 Coral

Five points staked.

I need Germany to lift the cup having taken 7/1 with Coral (generally 4/6 now). No hedge suggested. There is the small consolation of stakes refunded (only up to £25) if Argentina prevail owing to the concession associated with this bet. Let's hope the Germans can oblige.

Sent from my iPad 

Half-time WC semi

Well as they say the past is no guide to future results! The draw is a 400/1 chance now (at half-time) from 9/4. But at least we have Germany (7/1) in the final and they are 4/5 to win the World Cup as I write.

Sent from my iPad

World Cup semi-final matches

The knock-out stages of this World Cup have been very tight. In the round of 16 five of the eight matches were drawn at 90 minutes and no team scored more than two goals (including extra-time when played). 

In the quarter-finals although only one of the four matches was drawn at 90 minutes, only five goals in total were scored in 390 minutes of play. It would appear that there is no outstanding team amongst the final four as it's 5-2 the field to win the World Cup. 

The expectation is that the semi-final matches will be incredibly close and I have therefore backed the two matches to finish all-square at 90 minutes. My bets are:

2pts Brazil v Germany to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Bet365

2pts Argentina v Netherlands to draw at 90 minutes @ 11/5 Bet365

1pt win double at the above prices (9.4/1) Bet365

Five points staked

Sent from my iPad  

Profit update

Profits for 2014 now updated online including World Cup losers to date. Still got a chance of a few quid back with 7/1 Germany bet. Annual returns here: 

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php  (34% profit all bets)

As for Wimbledon just a small profit on the tourney: stakes 17.5 returns 21 profit just 3,5 points

 

Men's singles update

I was going to have a decent bet on Federer if they were going to start under the roof but that is not the case. Nevertheless I've had a bet on the Swiss as follows:

1.5pts Federer to win 3-0 sets  @ 13/2 Skybet

1pt Federer to win 3-1 sets @ 5/1 Paddy Power

2.5pts staked

Sent from my iPad 

Wimbledon men's final

If I have a bet on the above I will blog the details shortly before the start of the match. It is due to start at 2pm.

Sent from my iPad

US Open 2

Well there we are both underdogs in the Wimbledon men's semis have lost and their prices for the US Open are significantly shorter than those taken yesterday. Dimitrov is a top price 25/1 after a credible performance against Djoko. He had three set points to take the match into a fifth set but it wasn't to be. Milos Raonic is a 40/1 chance to win the US Open following a straight sets defeat by Federer.

Turning to the ladies' US Open, there are doubts surfacing about the favourite Serena Williams. There are rumours in some quarters that the 2/1 favourite could be pregnant. Of the other leading contenders, Li Na could be set for a spell in the wilderness following the split with coach Rodriguez. Azarenka will need plenty of matches in the lead up to be a contender. 

I'm backing tomorrow's finalists for US glory as follows:

4pts Bouchard to win ladies' US Open singles @ 10/1 Paddy Power

1pt Kvitova to win ladies' US Open singles @ 20/1 William Hill

Five points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

US Open

Given the improved performances of Dimitrov and Raonic at Grand Slam level I have taken a small interest (I am only laid small bets anyway) in the pair for the US Open. The market does not totally reflect their improved performances during this Wimbledon fortnight. 

Nadal and Murray, who have performed moderately at SW19, still represent a big % of the books as they are priced as low as 15/8 and 5/2 respectively in places. 

Even if neither underdog is successful tomorrow, I cannot see their price(s) drifting significantly. I have had:

1pt ew Raonic to win US Open men's singles @ 80/1 Skybet 1/2 odds 1,2 (NRNB)

(Also 80/1 Coral but not NRNB)

1.5pts ew Dimitrov to win US Open men's singles @ 40/1 Betfred 1/2 odds 1,2 

(Also available Betvictor if you can bet there)

Five points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

Wimbledon update

Dimitrov has reached the semi-final thanks in part to a lack lustre display from Murray. So that lands my 6/1 wager on Dimitrov to win the second quarter. 

Stakes and returns on the tournament to date are as follows: 

Total stakes 13.5 pts Returns 21 pts Profit 7.5 pts

(Total stakes include all outright, quarter and match bets.)

I've just re-invested a small portion of the overall profit on Grigor to win the tournament @ 8/1 with Boylesports (very similar price available with betfair at the time of writing):

1.5pts Dimitrov to win Wimbledon men's singles @ 8/1 Boylesports 

Obviously the (negative) Mugray portfolio of bets rolls on as he has not won a grand slam to date or reached the final of any sort of tournament for that matter. Indeed this defeat could see him slide outside the top ten making things even more difficult for him. Presumably he will be off to the US soon for the American swing ahead of the US Open. We may have to have a saver at some point but no further action at present in this area. 

Sent from my iPad