Thursday horses

19:10N 2pts win Teds Brother @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG

Wednesday horses

Not much happening today:

18:15F 3pts win Escape To Glory @ 3/1 Paddy Power BOG

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Tuesday horses 2

Two bets at Chepstow as follows:

14:30C 2.5pts win Ghostwing @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG (or Totesport without BOG)
15:30C 2.5pts win Jalors @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

Five points invested

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Tuesday horses

Disappointing blowout at Kempton today.

Ripon and Chepstow of interest tomorrow. One selection now as a gamble is developing:

15:40R 3pts win Snow Bay @ 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG

Bets to follow at Chepstow in the morning.

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Monday horses 2

Final play at Kempton:

16:45K 2pts win Isingy Red @ 5/1 Bet365 BOG
16:45K 1pt win Dunseverick @ 7/1 Boylesport

Three points staked.

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Monday horses

I have looked at Windsor, Carlisle and Leicester today but have decided just to play a couple of races at Kempton as follows:

16:15K 2pts win Lastkingofscotland @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG
16.15K 1pt ew Flameoftheforest @ 20/1 William Hill BOG
17:15K 4pts win Russian Ballet @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

Eight points staked

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Baroness Warsi

It looks like Baroness Warsi could be the next to leave the coalition cabinet. She might just beat Jeremy Hunt to the exit. Check out the headline of today's Sunday Times.

I have had 3pts @ 7/1 Warsi next to go with Paddy Power. (Also available with Ladbrokes).

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Saturday horses show 58 points profit

Good day on Saturday despite my profligate punting on nine horses. Two good priced winners advised at 22/1 and 14/1. Particularly pleased with the latter which won easily having been steadily backed during the day to a 13/2 SP. Annoyingly our last selection was touched off by the "Head Turner" going down by a nose in the final stride. No horse bets are expected Sunday.

Looking forward to French Open starting later today. Curious to see what the live ITV4 coverage will be like (Monday onwards, Eurosport/ITV3 Sunday). Not holding out a lot of hope given the pundits lined up - Inverdale, Courier and Mauresmo. No time for any of them unfortunately.

Incidentally I was surprised to see Sportingbet put up 50/1 Kerber shortly after I'd suggested a betfair wager on her at inferior odds. Even more surprised to see the price still there as I write. If I was allowed to bet with them I would be taking a little 50/1 each-way Kerber.

Finally I'm glad I didn't suggest a Eurovision play. Would never have put up the winning favourite - far too short for me in a 26-runner field.

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Saturday horses

Too many of them I expect you will think. Anyway here goes:

14:30 H 2pts win Apostle @ 14/1 Stan James
15:00H 3pts win Masamah @ 8/1 Totesport
15:30H 2pts win Headspace @ 6/1 PP BOG
16:05H 1pt ew Mappin Time @ 22/1 W Hill BOG
17:45C 2pts win Rutterkin @ 14/1 W Hill BOG
17:50H 2pts win Gritstone @ 12/1 S James
18:15C 3pts ew Lucky Dan @ 14/1 S James
18:30L 4pts win Primo Lady @ 8/1 W Hill BOG
19:00L 4pts win Howyadoingnotsobad @ 5/1 W Hill BOG


Those of you who are familiar with my selection process may think a couple of the Haydock choices look rather strange. They are, however, correct. Whether they win or not is another matter of course!

Total 27 points staked.

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The luck of the draw

Well we've not been lucky with the ladies' French Open draw. Our main hopes Serena 11/1 (now 5-2) and Sharapova 12/1 (now 8/1) have been drawn in the same quarter.

One would expect SW to beat Masha if they both get that far and then the winner maybe play Li Na in the semi. In the top half Aza looks very well drawn and could play Radwanska (who she has beaten six times this year), Kerber or Venus in the other semi. We have a small ew on Venus @ 66/1 so I have played Kerber today on betfair. The German left-hander is improving fast and is over priced. I have taken 36.0 this morning but you should certainly get 34.0

2pts win A Kerber for French Open @ 34.0 with betfair

EURO 2012

Who is going to score for England at Euro 2012? Perhaps nobody.

Roy has only picked four strikers including Wayne Rooney who is suspended for the first two games. England's campaign could be virtually over before Rooney gets a game.

I think their one hope is that Andy Carroll comes good, on the end of a few long balls. Roy might be thinking that way too as he starts with Carroll in tomorrow's friendly.

I have had 10 pts A Carroll to be England's top scorer at Euro 2012 @ 7/1 with Paddy Power


The above price available elsewhere but PP may have a money back special.

I have also had a small bet on tomorrow's match against Norway as follows:

1.5 pts A Carroll first goal scorer @ 6/1 with Paddy Power (money back if Gerrard scores first)


Total 11.5 points staked

Friday horses

Not much happening today on the horses front. Two small bets:

0.75 pts ew Amba 17:05 Yarmouth @ 25/1 Ladbrokes BOG (also available at Boylesorts)


1.25 pts win Al Shaqab 20:45 Muss @ 20/1 Bet 365 BOG

Total 2.75 points invested

Roman could get his man after all

Pep Guardiola has decided he needs a month off not a year and is waiting for a club to seduce him.

3pts @ 12/1 Pep to be next Chelsea Manager Bet365


Also 1pt @ 33/1 Pep to be next Liverpool Manager Skybet

Four points staked

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Olympic specials

Further to the maximum bet on GB gold medals < 24.5 posted on 16 May, I visited a Stan James shop yesterday to have some more on at the 4/5 as the price remains available online (if you have not been accommodated to your full stake already of course). 

After the usual nonsense about SJ online being a different company and the inevitable delay in finding the prices I was pleased to be accommodated to my full cash stake. I am not posting any further stakes on this market because we have already had the maximum 20 points. All I can say is that it is a strong bet and if you have followed the blog since 2009 and you are several hundred points in front you could consider topping up. 

Remember for this bet to lose GB/NI will have to achieve 25 gold medals or more, which would more than likely mean GB/NI finishing in third place ahead of both Germany and Russia. 

Whilst I was in the SJ shop I played another Olympic special bet as follows:-

GB/NI to achieve more silver medals than either gold or bronze medals 8pts @ 15/8 Stan James

According to my research the silver medal haul could be in the mid-twenties whereas gold (16 or 17?) and bronze (17 or 18?) could be much lower. 

These two large Olympic bets could provide great entertainment throughout the competition.

If however a miracle happens and 25+ gold medals are achieved, the country will be completely transformed (and I will be a lot poorer!)

 

Nottingham 14:45, 5f

One bet this afternoon, possibly bets at Kempton tonight:

3pts win Methaaly @ 8/1 with William Hill BOG

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Jockeys' championship 2012

It's time to admit that I probably have got the jockeys' championship wrong this year. The most interesting factor for me, this season so far, is the number of rides that RL Moore has had (179 up to last night). He has ridden more than any other jockey which, based on the last few seasons, is totally out of character. Clearly there would appear to be a desire to regain the championship.

He has ridden four winners at Leicester tonight to go six clear of our man Hanagan. I cannot see, bar accidents, how anyone other than Moore or Hanagan can win the title. Therefore I am prepared to eat humble pie, given how much I have won on Hanagan for the last two seasons, and have placed the following bet:

20pts win RL Moore to win jockeys' championship @ 7/4 with Ladbrokes

Twenty points invested.

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Monday horses

Two bets today as follows:

2pts win 1pt place Azzura du Caprio 15:40 Redcar @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG (1/5 1,2,3 )


3pts win Signifier 18:40 Windsor @ 11/1 Ladbrokes BOG

Six points staked.

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Saturday horses

Huge move for last night's wager. Now trading as low as 5/1 having secured the 10/1. Two further wagers today as follows:

2.5 pts win Courageous @ 8/1 with William Hill BOG 17:45 Thirsk
1.5 pts ew Rasaman @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes BOG 20:20 Doncaster

Total 5.5 points staked.

Thirsk 16:05, 5f

Early mover for tomorrow:

3pts win Excel Bolt @ 10/1 with William Hill BOG

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Newcastle 20:25, 7f

Last horse bet today:

3pts win Imperial Djay @ 7/2 with Stan James

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Hamilton 19:25, 20:35

Two bets at Hamilton tonight:

2.5 pts win Coral Sands @ 7/1 Totesport 19:25H
2.5 pts win Ill Be Good @ 15/2 William Hill BOG 20:35H

There may be one or two further bets later today.

Five points staked.

Venus Williams

We have already backed Venus at a big price for Wimbledon, however she could be coming good in time to make an impression at the French Open:

I have had 1pt ew @ 66/1 (with Ladbrokes) Venus Williams for the French Open (1/2 odds 1,2)


Venus is 100/1 with Bet Victor and Bodog if you are allowed to bet with either of these two firms.

Two points staked

WTA Rome

I have just secured a bit of value in the Rome event with Azarenka deciding to pull out after her win over Peer. The value plays are:

2pts ew Li Na @ 22/1 with Stan James (1/2 odds 1,2)


1pt ew Cibulkova @ 80/1 with Skybet (1/2 odds 1,2)

Six points staked.

Sporting bet go 200/1 Cibulkova but I don't think you will get that and I know I won't. The above two selections are in Serena Williams' half. Although the latter beat the horrible Petrova today it was a tough match and Serena appeared to have some medical problem during the match. I hope it's nothing too serious as we have significant bets on her at double figures for the French Open. In any event the selected two players are big prices right now.

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Maximum bet - Olympics

I have been looking through the various medal markets in the forthcoming Olympics. It seems to me that the GB/NI medal count is rather optimistic. On the gold medal front I expect then to achieve 16 or 17. Even with any home advantage accruing I doubt whether we can reach 20 golds. There is likely to be one too good for us in many events - ironically we may get more silvers than golds. Stan James go 4/5 fewer than 25 gold medals.

Therefore I have had:

20pts win GB/NI under 24.5 gold medals, Olympics 2012 @ 4/5 with Stan James

Bath 20:10, 5f

Today's horse racing bet is at Bath:

2pts win Cats Eyes @ 8/1 Skybet (also available Boylesports)

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Maximum bet

I am going to have a maximum bet of 20pts and I will announce this on the blog at 11am. This may not be of interest to many of you as it is a 4/5 chance. In any event I expect the price to change very soon after I place it. Other firms are betting on the event with slightly inferior terms.

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Kempton 18:50, 6f

One bet today. Not an obvious chance on form but did win maiden over this trip at Kempton in December.

2pts win 1 pt place Sketchy Evidence @ 14/1 William Hill BOG


Three points staked

Liverpool

There is a big rumour this morning that Roberto Martinez is being lined up to take over at Anfield. King Kenny has had a poor season and will surely be kicked "upstairs".

Stan James and VCbet offer 4/1 Martinez but Paddy Power offer 5/1.

I have had 5pts @ 5/1 R Martinez to be next Liverpool manager with PP.

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Saturday horses

Lots going on today, so just a couple of horse bets as follows:

2pts win Triple Dream @ 6/1 with skybet 14:15 Nott
1pt ew Speedy Yaki @ 20/1 with William Hill 17:00 Nott
1pt win Song Of Parkes @ 10/1 with Stan James 20:45 Thirsk
1pt win Trade Secret @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes BOG 20:45 Thirsk
0.5pt reverse SP forecast above two selections.

Total seven points.

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Yarmouth

Two bets at Yarmouth this evening:

1pt win Russian Rumba @ 16/1 with Coral, 18:25 Yarmouth


3pts win Shes Rosie @ 9/2 with 888.com, 19:25 Yarmouth

Total four points.

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League One/Two play-offs

Having drawn a blank on the Championship first-leg play-offs it's time to try and make some money on the League One/Two matches this weekend. Best odds for first leg draws are with Boylesports. Bet placed is as follows:

11/05/12 Stevenage v Sheffield United, draw @ 3.3
12/05/12 MK Dons v Huddersfield, draw @ 3.3
12/05/12 Crewe v Southend, draw @ 3.4
13/05/12 Cheltenham v Torquay, draw @ 3.4


6 x 2.5 pt doubles
4 x 1 pt trebles

Total 19 points staked.


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Chester

A mixed day on the horse racing front. No winners but a couple of close seconds. The morning plot Cottam Donny tried to make all at Beverley and was caught about 50 yards out finishing second @ 11/1 (SP 11/2 fav). In the last at Bath Yanza gave us a great run @ 33/1 e.w. (SP 28/1) - beaten just a head into second place.

Incidentally a good day for Paul Hanagan with a treble at Kempton to draw level with RL Moore on 20 wins at the top of the table.

Small win on the day thanks to the each-way bets. Nothing for tomorrow but I will probably have a go at Chester on Wednesday.

Further horse bets

The price on our first selection went pretty quickly with totesport however it was available for a while @ 11/1 with Coral after that so I hope you got some. Other bets today:

1pt win Ventura Sands @ 10/1 Stan James 17:30 Beverley (saver)
1pt ew Johnsons Cat @ 18/1 Totesport 17:00 Beverley
1pt win Louis Hull @ 12/1 William Hill BOG 17:00 Beverley
1pt ew Yanza @ 33/1 William Hill BOG 17:45 Bath 

Total six points.

Beverley, 17:30, 7f

3pts win 2pts place Cottam Donny @ 11/1 With Totesport

Five points staked.

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FA Cup - a non event?

The value in betting on football matches is often with the "unders" i.e. backing things not to happen. With regard to today's FA Cup final, good statistical judges like Kevin Pullein are leaning towards a low scoring match.

I think it could well be a draw after 90 minutes and I have backed that outcome at 23/10. I have had a couple other bets based on the premise that it could be a tight match. The total bets are as follows:

8pts Chelsea v Liverpool to draw at 90 mins @ 3.3 with skybet
2pts No goal scorer in 90 mins @ 9/1 with Ladbrokes
3pts Match to be decided on penalties @ 6/1 with William Hill

Total staked 13 points.

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Musselburgh 16:00 & 17:00, 7f

Two further bets:

2pts win Naabegha @ 6/1 Totesport 16:00M


3pts win Best Trip @ 9/2 William Hill BOG 17:00M

Five points invested.

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Musselburgh 16:00, 7f

One bet so far more to follow:

2pts each-way Snow Bay @ 10/1 Ladbrokes BOG

Four points staked

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League play-off matches

I like to play the draws in the first leg semi-final matches in the six league play-off ties. Statistically the draw in these matches (historically) is 40%-ish i.e. a 6/4 chance when 9/4 or greater is usually available with bookmakers.

Last year I just played/blogged 20 draw trebles all six matches. The first three matches ended in stalemate and I thought we might be in for a mega payout. I can remember following the final three matches whilst in Gdansk and the disappointment when all three remaining matches produced positive results. We still achieved a small profit though with just the one treble landed.

This year we cannot place an all encompassing bet because the Championship first leg matches are 3/4 May with League 1/2 matches not taking place until 11/12/13 May.

Therefore I have plunged on the Championship matches as follows, hoping one of them draw at least to contribute to a bet on the remaining four fixtures the following weekend:-

8pts West Ham v Cardiff to draw @ 3.3 with Totesport on 3 May
8pts Blackpool v Birmingham to draw @ 3.4 with Totesport on 4 May
4pts double at the above prices.

Twenty points staked.

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Pontefract 15:30, 8f

One bet on the horses for me today as follows:

2pts win @ 8/1 Fazza 15:30P Stan James 

Julia Goerges - Feedjit

I have had increased traffic since February. A lot of it seems to stem from a picture I included in a piece about the French Open on 24 February. That photo was of Julia Goerges. In fact if you look now at the "Feedjit" monitor on the lower right-hand side you will see that two-thirds of the latest visitors to the blog are looking at the Goerges 2 page.

In a blatant attempt to attract more traffic to this site here is another picture of the German player!

I don't think she is going to win the French Open though! But she is good to watch.

Aiden O'Brien

We already have small bets on AOB to score four or five English classic wins at 12/1 and 40/1 respectively with Ladbrokes. Since we placed those little bets his market positions in each of the first four classics looks to have improved. I have therefore topped up with totesport as follows:

3pts win on A O'Brien scoring four English classic wins @ 10/1 with totesport.

Meanwhile I hope you all opposed Harry in the England manager market. I indicated on the blog on 20 February that he was terrible value @ 1.37 to get the gig and suggested he was a lay. Incredible to think though that he never even got so much as an interview.