New kid on the block

She first came to my attention in November when contesting the Fed Cup final with Belarus. That weekend Aryna Sabalenka beat the recently crowned US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the singles. The Belarusian was ranked 78 in the world at the time. Since then, as I anticipated, she has steadily risen up the rankings and tomorrow she enters the top 20 on the eve of the US Open.

Expectations for the final major of 2018 are increasing. I’m holding some nice betting vouchers, 50/1 to win the singles (25/1 to reach final) and 14/1 to make the semis. However her performances at this year’s other grand slams do not inspire confidence - she’s lost in the first round each time.

Wimbledon was particularly disappointing. Aryna, unseeded, had a dream run to the Eastbourne final, beating Goerges, Mertens and Ka Pliskova on the way. In the title match she lost in two close sets to Wozniacki. After this seemingly perfect preparation she lost to the improving Romanian Buzarnescu in Wimbledon’s first round. 

She’ll play Danielle Collins in the US Open first round. The American has a big forehand but nothing like the hammer blow the big Belarusian possesses! I’d say the latter is the female equivalent of the Delpo forehand. 

Looks like she’s a future grand slam winner. This fortnight might just come a bit too soon. 

In full bloom

Wonderful time of year for enjoying the garden:

Wisteria in evidence - but no doubt not for long...

Twitter bets update

Website working again now so full list of bets suggested on Twitter can be found here:

Twitter bets 2018

Twitter bets profit update

There is a problem with the software which I use to update my website. Until that is fixed here is a summary of 2018 activity. (Unresolved bets total 24 points). Full bet details will be published on my website once I can update it:

At 19/03/2018 Sports by month Stake Return Profit % March Tennis - Indian Wells (M&W) 10.50 28.33 17.83 Cheltenham Festival 14.00 8.50 -5.50 19/03/2018 March total (so far) 24.50 36.83 12.33 50.33% January Tennis - Aus Open (M&W) 11.00 51.50 40.50 February Rugby  1.00 0 -1.00 Tennis - Doha 2.00 0 -2.00 2018 to date 38.50 88.33 49.83 129.43%

Sweet Caroline

I backed both Carolines for the Australian Open: Wozniacki and Garcia. Not my only bets as I played three other women too. Nevertheless a great result as Woza obliged @ 33/1. My total stakes on the women's event were eight points (plus a three point loss on the men's). So final calculation is:

Total Australian Open stakes 11 points returns 51.5 points profit 40.5 points.

What I have learned over the last six months (in particular) is not to play match bets (unless hedging an outright position). I just cannot get a winning margin in these H2H plays. Far better for me to concentrate on the outright markets which have proved so successful in recent times.

Since the US Open, winners including 66/1, 12/1 and now 33/1 has meant total tennis stakes of 34 points returns of 174.5 points and thus a profit of 140.5 points. (All bets advised on Twitter).

Garden view from study this morning

ATP Finals, autumn recap and 2018 first thoughts

Another profitable tennis tournament result for followers of my Twitter stuff. Only two bets advised: 2pts ew Dimitrov 12/1 WHill (1/3 odds 1,2 ew) and 0.5pt ew Sock 25/1 Paddy P (1/3 odds 1,2 ew). Stakes five points, returns 36 points.

Dimitrov beat my other choice Sock in the semi-final and then beat Goffin, who defeated Federer in the other semi, in the final.

That’s tennis betting finished for 2017 events. It’s been a very profitable year, not least the period from the US Open onwards. The last five tournaments have yielded:

US Open - stakes 10.5 returns 64 (SS/MK)
WTA Singapore - stakes 4 returns 23 (CW/CG)
WTA Elite - stakes 2 returns 0
Fed Cup - stakes 1.5 returns 0
ATP Finals - stakes 5 returns 36 (GD)

Totals - stakes 23 returns 123.....PROFIT 100 points!!

Now take a look at the current Australian Open betting market. The best ew prices about the market leaders are: 3/1 Federer (bad back?), 7/2 Nadal (knee problems), 9/2 Djokovic (motivation?), 11/2 Murray (hip problem). Those four prices add up to 80%. It is still highly likely that one of the ‘big four’ will win the first grand slam of course but I’d rather have an interest in a couple of outsiders. For that reason I’ve had some bets on yesterday’s ATP finalists for the first two grand slams. Full details on my Twitter feed (@Mikedq).