US Open ladies' second quarter

With Sharapova missing the event through injury the second quarter now looks open. Perhaps the inconsistent Mladenovic has a chance to come through this section? She would have to beat former champion Kuznetsova in the first round to kick start her challenge. However the seeded Russian won this 11 years ago and does not have great recent form. I've had: 

1pt K Mladenovic to win second quarter ladies' US Open singles @ 25/1 Coral

Despite the large number of meetings today I'm not having any bets on the horses. 

Enjoy the tennis. 

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Sunday results - Beverley 5f

I could never be an in-running trader in these sprints. Too hard to read. 

When Rosina was outpaced and about ten lengths behind the leader I was thinking - this cannot possibly win. Wins by two lengths going away. 

In my second race Jebediah Shine broke fast to try and make all, setting the race up for a closer. Deep in the final furlong I'm thinking - where's the line? Just holds on by a fast diminishing head. 

The upshot of all this excitement is two winners from the two selected @ 3/1 and @ 4/1 (BOG) and @ 19/1 double. 

A welcome return of 38 points for the five points staked. I hope you were on today. 

Not sure whether I'll play tomorrow. If I do I will publish before 10am. 

Meanwhile there's the US Open to look forward to - starts tomorrow....

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Football and tennis

My TGS premier league selections have started poorly. Unlike Callum Wilson of Bournemouth who is joint-leader at this very early stage on four goals. Following his hat-trick against West Ham he was on the score sheet against Leicester yesterday with a spectacular overhead kick. He was announced the man of the match. 

Very unlikely that he can win this playing for a promoted team, however an outside chance of finishing in the top four I would suggest. After the International break you'd fancy Bournemouth picking up more points against Norwich, Sunderland and Stoke. Could Wilson be this season's Harry Kane?!

1pt ew Callum Wilson to bet top premier league scorer @ 33/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)  

In the tennis I've had a small bet on Kevin Anderson, who is playing very well at present, winning Murray's quarter: 

1pt win K Anderson to win third quarter men's singles US Open @ 25/1 Coral

That's it for today...

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Sunday's horse racing

No good yesterday in the Goodwood race. 

In the tennis markets Boylesports eventually removed their ew facility in the quarter betting. Fortunately it was many hours after I pointed out the market on the blog so some readers may have got a bet. 

I don't back favourites very often - although one of my choices yesterday finished up market leader. I have however played the favs in the two Beverley sprint handicaps today as follows:

16:35B 2pts win Rosina @ 3/1 Coral BOG 

17:05B 2pts win Jebediah Shine @ 3/1 Skybet BOG

1pt win double above two Coral (11/4 JS)

Five points staked.

Small football and tennis bets to follow. 

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No more bets Saturday

Going to stick with the bets I've already published. Both Goodwood horses are 10/1 with William Hill as I write and Bencic is still currently available for the quarter-final suggestion with Boylesports.

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U.S. Open quarter betting

A bookmaker not known for laying bets is offering a bit of value in this market. Normally this market is win only i.e. you are betting on the player to reach the semi-final from their particular quarter. Boylesports however are offing ew 1/3 odds 1,2. So with an ew bet the place terms payout if your selection reaches the quarter-final. 

I believe there is some value here particularly when there is an odds-on quarter favourite (eg Djokovic, Federer, S Williams). The value lies with the potential quarter-final opponent of the favourite. Looking specifically at the Serena quarter, she is generally 1/3 to win it so the value I believe is the second favourite, Bencic who Williams potentially meets in the quarter-final. Boylesports offer 10/1 Bencic whereas she is best priced 8/1 with other firms (win only). Obviously we will have to take Bencic's well-being on trust (following a retirement in her last tournament) but it's a good sign that the Swiss is clear fourth favourite on betfair to win outright (23.0). Incredibly they've laid me a bet. Not a huge one but a bet nonetheless: 

2pts ew B Bencic to win 1st quarter ladies' singles @ 10/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)

Four points staked.

Further bets before 10am tomorrow.

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Hoof It kicked into touch

Well there we have it. Plenty of 20/1 Hoof It available at the time of blogging. Very heavily backed early afternoon into 8/1. Needless to say finishes fifth, one place outside the EW money. 

I've played the 2:35 Goodwood tomorrow as I think a couple at the head of the market are overpriced. I have had: 

14:35G 2pts win 1pt place Fox Trotter @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

14:35G 1.5pts win 1pt place Suzie's Connoisseur @ 9/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2.3,4)

Total 5.5 points.

One firm is offering ew first five but only offers 8/1 each of my choices. I'll stick with the above. 

Might have further bets tomorrow, if I do I will blog anything I think would be of interest before 10am. 

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Thirsk

One bet today in the impossible sprint over 6f:

15:25T 1pt ew Hoof It @ 20/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Will probably have a couple of wagers tomorrow. Horses and maybe tennis quarter bets.

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Ladies' US Open

My ew picks Bencic and Kerber will not clash in the draw. One of them will be in Serena's half the other in the opposite half. Serena is now odds on to complete the grand slam. What would have been the usual threats to her taking the title: Azarenka, Sharapova and Halep have all suffered recent injuries of one sort or another. So I cannot oppose the world number one with an obvious challenger on form/ranking. I'll just stick with my 33/1 and 50/1 shots and hope for a miracle:

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Men's US Open

With Federer's comprehensive wins over Murray and Djokovic in Cincinnati he regained the number two spot from the Scot. Consequently he will be seeded two at next week's U.S. Open and is guaranteed not to meet Djokovic again unless the world's top two players contest the final.

Who could Federer meet in the semi? Well on the seeding it would be either Murray or Nishikori. The H2H with the Japanese player is 3-2 Federer. They haven't met in 2015 but Fed won the latest two meets in 2014. As for Murray, he can't break Roger's serve. It's something like 35 service games since the Scot achieved a break of the Swiss serve. And of course Roger has won their last five meetings.  

It's difficult to envisage anyone other than the top three picking up the trophy so I've had: 

2.5pts ew Roger Federer to win US Open @ 5/1 Paddy Power (ew 1/2 1,2) 

Five points staked.

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Saturday racing

Have played a couple of races. Firstly the big sprint at Sandown. Sixteen runners declared but there will be at least one non-runner so ew betting at the moment looks potentially poor value. I've taken the unusual step of backing three horses in the race as follows: 

15:25S 2pts win Desert Ace @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

15:25S 1.5pts win Taajub @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

15:25S 0.5pts win Pixeleen @ 12/1 Betfred BOG 

I looked at York's card earlier and decided against a bet however I've changed my mind. I think Fields Of Athenry is a very interesting runner and have had a small ew bet: 

15:45Y 1pt ew Fields Of Athenry @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

Total stake six points.

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Here he comes! There'll be hell to pay!

Or maybe Fred......

Trump now 9/2 with the northern geriartic layer (6/1 best elsewhere) for U.S. Republican Candidate.

Happy to be on at 20/1 advised 22 July!:

Kerber v Bencic

One of my two ew selections for the ladies' US Open will lose tonight in the first round of this week's WTA tournament. Not a difficult prediction as (50/1) Kerber takes on (33/1) Bencic. Kerber is favourite for the match and normally I'd be interested in Bencic at around 13/8 for the encounter as she won their only previous match in straight sets in August 2014. However with all the exertions of winning the Rogers' Cup last week the Swiss Miss could be fatigued.

I'll be happy to watch the match live on BT Sport around 20:00.

U.S. Open tennis

Belinha Bencic has won the Rogers' Cup in Toronto. She beat Wozniacki, Lisicki, Ivanovic, S Williams and in the final, Halep. Still only 18 she is improving so quickly that she must have a shot in the final grand slam. She has been backed, in particular after her semi-final victory over Serena. However there is still a bit of 33/1 about with W Hill - who have laid me 61p ew. I had some 33/1 with Boyles last night before they cut their price. Recommendation is:

1pt ew Belinda Bencic to win ladies' US Open tennis @ 33/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Two points staked.

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Sunday Ponte

Horrible results at Ripon. Seven non-runners in the GSW race ruined it. As it turned out the ground was not as soft as anticipated which did not help my selections. And of course my best bet - Eccleston - finished fourth...

End of moan...

Ponte Sunday:

16:20P 2pts win Spring Offensive @ 5/1 Betfred BOG

16:20P 1pt win Shaakis @ 11/2 Coral BOG

17:20P 2pts win Be Lucky @ 9/2 Betfred BOG 

2 x 0.5pt win doubles above Betfred (5/1 Shaakis)

Plus 17:20P 0.5pts ew Ben Hall @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

TOTAL seven points. 

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Slowburner

Tonight at the Ludlow Brewery. Slowburner singing Cream's Politician:

Saturday racing

That was a very poor race at Nottingham today but thankfully I was not too heavily involved. It's the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon tomorrow, one of my favourite races. There is also the consolation race over the same course and distance run thirty minutes earlier. I've already got involved with the early prices. I think this is wise with BOG available and also there's always the chance Pricewise might pick one of mine and then I'd struggle to get on tomorrow. This is how I have played:

15:00R 2pts win Right Touch @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

15:00R 1pt ew The Hooded Claw @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

15:30R 2.5pts win 1.5pts place Eccleston @ 11/1 Betfred BOG

15:30R 2pts win 1pt place Poyle Vinnie @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG 

 Total 11 points staked.

I particularly like Eccleston the sole representative of the O'Meara stable. The trainer has won this race in three of the last four years including last year.

Might have a further bet in the morning. If so will post before 11:00 am.

I hope the GSW Handicap is still one of my favourite races at 15:45 tomorrow!

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Nottingham 14:40

Field reduced from 15 to 10. No really strong fancy:

14:40N 0.75pts ew College Doll @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:40N 0.5pts ew Fathom Five @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 2.5 points.

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Friday horses

More reduced fields because of the weather. Going to have a bet at Nottingham. Will post by 11:00..

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Out of jail today

Rain playing havoc with the going and non-runners. Two poor races for us at Salisbury and Beverley. Our only chance of a return was 16:55 Salisbury as Lingfield selection, Ohsosecret, doesn't go.

On the 3/1 favourite Quite A Story @ 9/2 and Hipz @ 10/1. Latter well supported immediately before race to 11/2.

When exiting stalls Quite A Story unseats A Kirby. Loose horse continues to compete and interferes with Hipz a furlong or so out. Hipz looks as though he could be caught by Capelita on the line. Latter was threes-on in the photo with betfair to have got up.

However Hipz wins by a nose. I'll take that. Quite a story indeed.

Thursday horses

Losing day Wednesday with just See Vermont going close. Atlantis Crossing was withdrawn so stakes returned on that selection. Spraying it around a bit tomorrow:

14:55S 2pts win Delaire @ 5/1 Betfred 

14:55S 1pt win Goodwood Moonlight @ 8/1 Betfred

15:35B 1pt win Busty Bimbo @ 15/2 Paddy Power

15:35B 1pt win Horsforth @ 10/1 Betfred

16:55S 2pts win Quite A Story @ 9/2 William Hill

16:55S 1pt win Hipz @ 10/1 William Hill 

18:45L 1pt win Ohsosecret @ 5/1 Skybet 

All selections are BOG. Total nine points staked.

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Leopardstown and Galway July 2015

That was a horrible race at Beverley with See Vermont squeezed for room in the closing stages and beaten just two heads. Well supported too down to 7/2 at the off.

Here is something to take your mind off that (if you backed it).

My visit to Leopardstown and Galway last month. Here's how it went:

 Leopardstown & Galway July 2015

Wednesday racing

A good result today with Divertimenti easily obliging by five lengths. I said on Twitter this morning that I would settle the bet at 9/1 rather than 10/1 if it was successful. I was disgusted with WH for only laying me £1.50 at 10/1. The price changed fairly quickly after I blogged the advice but there were several firms offering 9/1 - so that's how it will be settled. (SP was 7/1.)

Consequently 15.75 pts profit today which follows seven points on Monday and a couple of points on Sunday. Several races I like the look of tomorrow but I will stick with just these two: 

15:35Be 2pts win See Vermont @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG

20:10K 2pts win Atlantis Crossing @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:10K 1pt ew Secret Journey @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

Six points staked. 

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Tuesday racing

Just one bet today. Last race at Nottingham. Like the look of Divertimenti. The old boy has done well in this race winning twice including last year:

20:15N 1.5pts win 1pt place Divertimenti @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Total 2.5pts staked.

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Glee at Thirsk?

Some good value losers at Leicester yesterday (eg 11/4 > 7/4) but a winner at 8/1 meant a small profit on the day. One bet today at Thirsk with G Lee in the saddle:

19:00T 2pts win Olivia Farrow @ 7/2 Betfred  BOG

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U.S. Open

America will be anticipating Serena Williams completing a calendar grand slam at the U.S. Open in a few weeks time and in the process moving level with Graf on 22 grand slam wins. She is a short price to accomplish this at no better than 6/5.

One player who has been playing well on the hard courts while Serena has been taking a break is Angelique Kerber. She meets Pliskova in the final at Stanford later today. The problem in backing the German for the final GS tournament of the year is that her form has not been as good in grand slams as elsewhere. Nevertheless a quote of 50/1 from WH is worth taking to open the portfolio:

1pt ew Angelique Kerber to win ladies' US Open @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

Two points staked.

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No glee at Ascot

G Lee's mounts at Ascot yesterday never reached the winners' enclosure although two of the mounts I mentioned finished second beaten a s.h and 1/2 length respectively. As with the Lingfield selection however, nothing to come. 

I've had a couple of bets at Leicester today and these are as follows:

15:30L 2pts win Red Tycoon @ 4/1 Betfred BOG

15:30L 1pt win Rosie's Premiere @ 8/1 Coral BOG

16:00L 3pts win Dunnscotia @ 11/4 Paddy Power BOG

17:00L 1pt win Go Charlie @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

Total seven points.

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Saturday racing

Really can't get excited about any bets today other than the jockey bet I've already had. I think the Shergar Cup will be entertaining to watch but I am not considering any single horse bets at Ascot.

Just one bet today at Lingfield, Head Coach who is wearing blinkers for the first time:

17:50L 1.5pts win 1pt place Head Coach @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total 2.5pts staked.

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Shergar Cup Top Jockey

You can argue that Blake Shinn has the best mounts at Ascot Saturday, that's why most bookmakers have him favourite to win the top jockey accolade. I think the value though lies with Graham Lee whose five mounts can all be fancied for various reasons. His 13:30 and 15:50 rides are Pricewise selections (chosen by Paul Kealy this week). In between Balding's Elbereth, Earth Drummer for inform David O'Meara and Johnson's Polarisation could all be in the shake up. 

Consequently I've taken the following bet with Coral:

2pts Graham Lee to be Shergar Cup top jockey @ 8/1 Coral

I may have some further bets Saturday and if I do they will be posted by 10:00am. 

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No bets today

Just to confirm the details of yesterday's Kempton winner. Classical Rose was subject to 30p rule4 deduction because of the withdrawal of the favourite. This means the odds taken of 14/1 were reduced to 9.8/1. Still a nice payout and a bit better than the S.P. odds (8/1). No bet today and unlikely to be a bet tomorrow. If I do have a bet Friday I will post it by 09:30 am.

Last night I went to an interesting and entertaining concert in Ludlow: Tim Eriksen, an American folk singer and multi-instramentalist. Here's a sample of his work filmed on a train journey between Poznan and Warsaw:

Some banjo picker, eh?

Wednesday horses

Unfortunately just two good value losers today, both well supported but neither could really get in a blow. Switch of surface tomorrow:

18:10K 1.5pts ew Classical Rose @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

18:10K 2pts win Sciustree @ 4/1 Coral BOG

Five points staked.

That's it for the horses Wednesday. 

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Salisbury

Played a couple of races here:

15:30S 2pts win Byrd In Hand @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

16:00S 2pts win Malih @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

0.5pts ew double above two at prices Betfred (10/3 Malih)

Five points staked.

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Not a bad Goodwood

Only one winner (Ridge Ranger 16/1) but four good priced ew placed bets means an overall profit at the Sussex venue: stakes 28 points, returns 38.75 points, profit 10.75 points. Hope you managed to make it pay.

Saturday racing

Quite a few races I could get involved in today however I'm sticking to Goodwood. People are talking up Richard Hughes winning the Stewards' Cup on Ninjago this afternoon on his last day in the saddle. He may well do this but he has, I think, an even better chance of a winner in the consolation race at 14:00. He rides last year's winner Barnet Fair. 

14:00G 2pts ew Barnet Fair @ 16/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked. 

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