AFCON matches 2

The first of the quarter finals was 0-0 at half-time so I was optimistic for a low scoring draw. It finished 2-4!

However in the second match Tunisia lead 1-0 until conceding through an injury time penalty kick. So a 1-1 draw. Small profit on the two matches: stakes 16 points return 19.2 points profit 3.2 points. Plus we are awarded a two point free bet with Betfred. As you know I do not include free bets in any of my profit/loss figures. Suggest you use this in placing further correct scores on the remaining quarter finals. Meanwhile straight draw bets as follows:

16:00 Ghana V Guinea to draw 6pts @ 12/5 Betfair Sportsbook

19:00 Ivory Coast v Algeria to draw 6pts @ 2/1 Betfred

Mysteriously Betfred have not listed (as yet) these two matches in their 1-1 promotion despite the matches being televised. Paddy Power has a similar promotion based around matches finishing 0-0. Their odds for 1-1 look a little tight however.

I may have correct score bets on these two matches and if I do will publish tomorrow morning.

Paddy Power 2

Here's the response from PP concerning my query:

Response By Email (Amy Stewart) (31/01/2015 09.06 PM)

Hi Maichal,

 

 Thank you for contacting Paddy Power Customer Support.

 

Del Potro did partake in this tournament withdrawing during the first match against Janowicz, injured.

 

This unfortunately means that your bet has been correctly settled as a losing selection as per the Terms and Conditions.

 

If you have any further queries please click here to avail of our Live Help.

 

Kind Regards,

 

Amy

 

Paddy Power Customer Service

Why not check the facts before replying? Takes one minute on the net. Here's one article for example:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/juan-martin-del-potro-pulls-australian-open-013602853--ten.html

Disgrace

South Shropshire Blues Club

An excellent night at the Ludlow brewery. South Shropshire Blues Club kicking up a storm and raising money for charity. The talented Jack Brett (pic one) was followed by the explosive Barrel House Blues Band (second pic). Reasonably priced ales brewed on the premises. Beer miles equal zero. 

I won first prize in the raffle too!

Next gig 21 March, not to be missed.

Paddy Power

The Irish comedy bookmaker has settled JM Del Potro as a loser in the Aus Open quarter betting. This is incorrect according to their rules. I am on their case and they won't get away with it. This is not the first time I have backed a player with them who subsequently withdrew without taking part and I faced an initial losing settlement.

Even though a small stake is involved I would not hesitate to refer settlement to IBAS as I know I am right. I famously took the dreadful Sportingbet to IBAS over a £20 void bet and won. You can read about that on my website.

Skybet has correctly settled the same wager as void.

AFCON matches

Poor results at the Aussie Open. Unlike last year when we had Stan in the mix @ 50/1. So a very poor start to the year - some 24 points down. Still I should not be thinking about that rather the fact that the overall profit is 1,523 points (from 1,547 at the year end.)

I will be having bets on the AFCON starting with this Saturday's matches.  Here are the first two matches I have played:

16:00 Congo v DR Congo 6 pts the draw @ 2/1  Betfred 
16:00 Congo v DR Congo 2 pts 0-0 draw @ 5/1 Betfred

19:00 Tunisia v Eq Guinea 6 pts the draw @ 11/5 Betfred
19:00 Tunisia v Eq Guinea 2 pts 0-0 draw @ 11/2 Betfred

Betfred are offering a free bet refund on correct score bets (up to £50 - singles only - on certain televised matches including the two above in the event of  a 1-1 draw). As I think the most likely outcome is 0-0 or 1-1 for these matches that is why I have played as above)

So here's hoping for some extremely tedious sport on Saturday.

Total stake 16 points.

Wimbledon ladies

Venus is right in there with a shout at the Aussie Open now although chances are she will face her sister in the semi if she gets past her young compatriot Keys. I have followed up with a small Wimbledon wager as follows:

1pt ew Venus Williams to win Wimbledon ladies' singles @ 66/1 Bet365  (1/2 1,2)

Take 50/1 with skybet if you cannot get a bet with Bet365

Tennis and football

Can't believe how badly my horse selections ran yesterday. Looks like it will be "bread and point" this weekend as my father used to say...

Switched sports for my next bets. 

TENNIS

I was impressed with Vika's performance yesterday - a comfortable 6-4 6-2 win over Woza. She looked to be back to her best with no trace of the injury problems which so badly affected her in 2014 and resulted in her ranking slipping to 44 in the world. She is playing even more aggressively than usual - if that's possible - with increased net play. Let's not forget she has won this tournament twice in the last three years so clearly loves Australia.

In contrast I've been unimpressed with Serena Williams not only here but in the warm up tournaments too. She is 0-2 against top ten players this year having already lost to Radwanska and Bouchard. 

Serena v Vika could be a quarter-final. We already have an interest in Vika reaching the semis (8/1) however I've now backed her to win the tournament at the widely available 10/1:

2 pts Victoria Azarenka to win Aussie Open @ 10/1 Betfred

FOOTBALL 

We have four outright bets in the FA CUP however I've just added some match bets. The following ties look very tight so consequently I've played the draw in each match:

12:45 Sat 1.5 pts Blackburn v Swansea to draw FA Cup match @ 5/2 Bet365

15:00 Sat 1.5 pts Birmingham v West Brom to draw FA Cup match @ 5/2 Bet365

16:00 Sun 1.5 pts Brighton v Asenal to draw FA Cup match @ 10/3 Bet365

0.5 pt treble above three draws at the prices. 

Football total stake 5 pts, one draw would return a minimum 5.25 pts.

Sent from my iPad 

Chelmsford City

I've rather surprised myself by studying tomorrow's card from the Essex venue. 

Indeed I've had a couple of speculative plays as follows:

17:40 CC 2 pts win Viva Verglas @ 7/1 Coral BOG 

18:10 CC 1.5 pts win Clearing @ 7/1 Coral BOG

0.5 pt ew double the above two at the prices. 

Total 4.5 pts staked. 

 

 

FA Cup preview

It's back to the FA Cup this weekend. Fortunately my portfolio of four teams has made it through to the fourth round. Two of the teams had to survive replays: Southampton winning 1-0 at Ipswich and Small Sam's Wham scraping through 9-8 on penalties against Everton.

Two or three good things came out of the fourth round draw. My four teams avoided each other and they also avoided the so called big four/five: Chelsea, Man City, Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool. The bad news is that these five teams also avoided each other - which was disappointing.

Three of my four selections will play away - albeit against lower league opposition. The other team, Southampton, entertain Crystal Palace. So on paper all four are bookmaker favourites to go through, so here's hoping.....

If we do well in the fourth round but the market leaders progress let's hope for Man City v Chelsea and Man U v Arsenal to be pulled out of the hat - that would shake things up a bit!

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Del Potro non-runner

If you followed me in with a bet for Del Potro to win the first quarter men's singles with Skybet the stakes should be refunded as he did not take part. My bet has not as yet been settled and I guess it may not be until the semi final places are known.

I have also checked both Paddy Power and Boyles' websites and it would appear that they operate the same rule.

JMD Potro update

Boyles just put up 25/1 first quarter. Can't last. Would only lay me 78p.

JMD Potro

Good to see the big man back. Sydney ATP was his come back tournament and he managed a couple of wins (against Stakhovsky and Fognini) before losing to a qualifier. Being the optimist that I am, I have thrown a couple of quid at him on betfair @ 200.0 to win the Aus Open! 

Somewhat less of a miracle would be required to reach the last four. He is, however, in Djoko's quarter so there would need to be some significant upsets for him to achieve a semi-final place.

He opens against the big Pole Janowicz so that should be a serving fest and a great spectacle...

I've had a small bet @ PP's 16/1, which of course has now gone. I've had an even smaller bet with Skybet at the same price...that price is still available as I write as it is with the dreadful Betvictor:

1pt win JMD Potro first quarter Aus Open @ 16/1 Skybet.

That's it for the tourney in terms of ante-post bets. May well have some bets during the fortnight however. Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my iPad 

Further Aus Open interest

I'm getting pretty fed up with Paddy Power. They lay me pathetically small bets and then often move the market to reflect my trade. For example I took their 10/1 Vika earlier to win ladies' quarter one which immediately contracted to 8/1. I've had three bets with them on the quarter markets as follows. Obviously I will book Vika at the lower price now offered: 

1pt V Azarenka to win quarter one ladies' singles @ 8/1 Paddy Power

1pt V Williams to win quarter two ladies' singles @ 8/1 Paddy Power

1pt Ka Pliskova to win quarter three ladies' singles @ 10/1 Paddy Power

Three points staked.

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Karolina Pliskova

My 12/1 EW selection in the Sydney Open will play her compatriot Petra Kvitova in the final in a couple of hours time. The problem here is I suspect Karolina looks up to the dual Wimbledon champion. In a metaphorical sense only of course as she is actually one inch taller!

The way Pliskova has played in her last two matches though you have to give her a chance today. She served 15 aces in beating CSN in three sets, finishing the final (bagel) set with four consecutive aces. She then blew Kerber off the court in the semi in just 55 minutes. The two Czech players have met just once on the Tour, the higher ranked player prevailing 6-4 in the third set. 

Looking ahead to the Australian Open KP is seeded 22 and has been drawn in the third quarter. Thus if she was to have a decent run she would not meet Pova until the semi and Serena in the final. Very speculative of course but I suspect she won't be 66/1 for the first grand slam should she continue her confident run and win today:

0.5pts EW Karolina Pliskova @ 66/1 Australian Open Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

                                                                                A highly improbable Australian Open Final

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Sydney update

Poor result last night when Muguruza beat A-Rad in three sets. It was particularly annoying because top seed Halep had pulled out of the tournament a few hours earlier. A-Rad had been in Halep's half of the draw. That half has now opened up as a consequence of the overnight results. I've had another small bet, this time with Betfred: 

0.75pts EW Karolina Pliskova @ 12/1 Betfred (1/3 odds 1,2) 

1.5pts staked

On the football front two of my portfolio in the FA Cup are involved in replays. Firstly West Ham host Everton tonight having led 1-0 at Goodison Park until the 91st minute. Then tomorrow Soton, who are going well for us in the league, travel to Ipswich. This could be horribly ironic. Good enough to win at Old Trafford on Sunday but not at Portman Road Wednesday?  Must stop being negative! 

Sent from my iPad 

Sydney International

Slowly away in a sense. Could have taken 8/1 A-Rad for this but was concerned how she would be feeling in the first round having just won the Hopman Cup for Poland, beating SW twice in the same day. She took out Serena in three sets then teamed up with Jerzy Janowicz to win the mixed doubles - and the title. As it's turned out she won her first round match comfortably this morning against Cornet, the French woman having beaten the Pole just three days ago. 

Next up for A-Rad is Muguruza with whom she holds a 2-0 HTH. If she gets through to round three it will probably be Kerber on the other side of the net. Halep and Kvitova are the market leaders here so A-Rad is available at 6/1 in three places as I write. I think this is worth a small interest: 

1.5pts Agneiszka Radwanska to win Sydney International @ 6/1 Coral 

                                                     


Sent from my iPad 

Venus Williams

I am still of the opinion, probably misguided, that Venus can win another grand slam. I thought she was unfortunate not to progress further at Wimbledon last summer. Certainly SW19 would seem to offer her best opportunity. However overnight she has beaten Wozniacki in the Auckland final to demonstrate her current well being and I've therefore taken a little bit of 66s for the first GS of the year:

0.75pts EW Venus Williams to win Australian Open @ 66/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5 points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Further FA Cup wager

I have added another team to the portfolio ahead of tomorrow's matches. Stoke are notoriously difficult to beat at home (see MU visit for example yesterday). They are on a good run in the Premiership - one defeat in six matches (Chelsea) - having risen to 12th place and may be safe from relegation, as prices up to 50/1 for the drop suggest. 

Therefore they could have a decent crack at this event in which they were runners-up to Man City in 2011. I have had:

1pt EW Stoke @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

So that's four teams against the field. We will need a lot of luck in the draw if the selections progress to the fourth round. But that's part of the entertainment value of the FA Cup for me...

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Premiership relegation

HNY to all readers.

I find the relegation market very tricky and seldom play. However following their fourth successive defeat in the league I've just had a small bet on Everton to go down. They are now just four points above the relegation zone. Their next league match is against Man City. I have had:

1pt Everton to be relegated @ 33/1 Betfred

(40/1 with Ladbrokes if you can bet with them)

I hope Everton can at least maintain their poor run of form for the encounter against one our FA Cup hopes (West Ham) on Tuesday!

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